Spots N Dots
The Daily News Of TV Sales
September 30, 2016
PACS OUTSPENDING CANDIDATES THIS YEAR
LOCAL BROADCAST HAS BIGGEST IMPACT
Like other forecasters we’ve reported, Steve Passwaiter, VP and General Manager of kantar Media/CMAG, has lowered his expectations for political ad spending this year. He told the TVB Forward conference in New York that he now sees Local TV at $2.8 billion—down from his original forecast of $3.3 billion; Local Cable at $750 million—rather than $800 million; and the Broadcast and Cable Networks at $100 million—off sharply from his original expectation of $300 million. The big difference, of course, is the unusual campaign of Donald Trump. Whereas 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney and PACs supporting him spent $550 million on TV advertising, the total to date for Trump and the pro-Trump PACs is $78 million—although Trump has raised more money and is currently placing buys. “It’s got to go a hell of a lot higher to get to 550—and that’s not going to happen,” he said.
Despite the unusual presidential race, PACs are active on both sides of the political divide buying TV advertising to battle for control of Congress—and PACs don’t qualify for the lowest unit rate. Official candidate campaigns accounted for 70% of spending in the 2012 election, with PACs only 30%. This year that’s flipped, Passwaiter says, with PACs at 58% and candidates 42%. He figures that might have increased spending on Senate contests by $100 million or so. A few Senate races have been unexpectedly competitive, including Arizona, Ohio, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina.
The heads of two big PACs assured the broadcaster gathering that Local TV remains their #1 priority for advertising—but they are getting pushback from some donors who have heard the hype and think the focus should be on digital. “We kind of have to fend that off sometimes and explain why the best use of money by an outside group is on broadcast,” said Mike Shields, President of the pro-GOP American Action Network.
“I’m constantly looking for outside validators and tools to explain to my donors that if you want to reach voters in a suburban Philly district, advertise on Philly broadcast—because even though you’re technically wasting, let’s say three-quarters off that money, because it’s going to people outside your House race, it’s still the best way to reach those people you need to reach,” said Alixandria Lapp, Executive Director of House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats.
“When you’re buying digital it can’t be based on just so many impressions,” Ladd later added, “because so many of those impressions are basically useless.” She insists on buying higher quality digital content, even if that means higher cost.
ADVERTISER NEWS
We reported yesterday on how well Amazon is expected to do for the holiday season—in a related note, Cowen & Co. is saying that warehouse clubs such as Costco and Sam’s Club may be taking a disproportionate share of business lost to the online giant. Cowen notes that while the percentage of U.S. households that are members of Amazon Prime has more than doubled in four years to 16.2%, households that used Costco have dropped from 14.9% to 9.8% in the same period, and Sam’s Club shoppers have fallen from 16.9% to 9.7%......PepsiCo beat profit expectations despite a dip in total revenue in its latest fiscal quarter, as North American sales for beverages and the Frito-Lay units offset some declines from international business. The company says profitability gains came from increased productivity and lower raw-material costs……There’s more bad news coming from the restaurant category. Cosi has filed for bankruptcy protection and is closing 29 of the 74 company-owned locations (31 franchised units are not affected by the filing). Cosi says it’s on a “fast-track process” to emerge from bankruptcy with new ownership. And Nation’s Restaurant News says Restaurants Acquisition LLC, which itself went bankrupt last December, is closing almost all Black-eyed Pea restaurants in Texas, leaving just a handful of franchised locations still operating……But it’s not all doom-and-gloom in that category. The 330-unit hot dog concept Wienerschnitzel chain says this year’s sales are up 5% with transaction counts rising, very much a reversal over recent industry trends. Among reasons for the good news the company mentions “lifestyle-oriented commercials geared towards capturing tomorrow’s consumer”……Jack in the Box is debuting what it calls Brunchfast, a “so-far-untapped daypart.” Several new items such as a bacon and egg chicken sandwich on a toasted English muffin will be available all day with pricing at premium levels. Jack in the Box was up in same-store sales in the quarter that ended on 7/3 with a 1.1% increase in systemwide results. The chain counts 2,254 locations while sibling Qdoba has 688 units……While much of the supermarket business is having problems, Sprouts Farmers Market remains in expansion mode and will open its first units in Florida and North Carolina in next year’s first quarter. In total the chain expects to add 36 stores next year with other new units for the first quarter slated for Georgia, California, Arizona and Kansas……Pier 1 same-store sales for the quarter that ended on 8/27 were down 4.3%, although it noted September business has been better. E-commerce rose to 20% of sales in the quarter, up from 17% a year ago.
NETWORK NEWS
FOX has given a script commitment to produce and new legal dramedy called The Underlings. The commitment was given to Hart of Dixie creator and producer, Leila Gerstein and Aaron Kaplan of Kapital Entertainment. The Underlings will be set in a corporate law firm where a group of hapless assistants resolve to right the wrongs of their evil bosses and clients……ABC had landed a new comedy with Emmy winner Felicity Huffman as executive producer and star. The unnamed single-camera project is about a married couple, who are political pundits on opposite sides, and the challenges they face at work and home. black-ish creator Kenya Barris and co-executive producer Vijal Patel are also involved in the project……ABC has cut the order for Imaginary Mary, a live-action/CGI-hybrid comedy series starring Jenna Elfman. The original order of 13 episodes was cut to 9 due to a decision to make some tweaks to the animation which require more time to complete……Jon Seda’s character on NBC’s Chicago P.D. will be relocating to the new franchise spin-off, Chicago Justice. Seda’s character, Antonio Dawson will be an investigator for the DA’s office……Saturday Night Live is promoting that Alec Baldwin will portray Republican nominee Donald Trump for the upcoming season. Darrell Hammond handled the Trump duties last season and Taran Killiam prior to that. Killam’s contact was not renewed for the new season……A small-screen remake of the classic film, The Italian Job had picked up a script commitment from NBC. The Paramount TV project joins a couple of other movie titles getting a series treatment. CBS is developing a series version of S.W.A.T. and Behind Enemy Lines is being developed at FOX……A new single-camera family comedy called The Escape has been picked up by ABC. The series revolves around a stressed-out urban professional who uproots himself and his troubled 19-year-old son to move to rural Idaho to live with his father, a retired surgeon with the ruggedness of Indian Jones. The Escape is written by Dan Sterling and will be produced by Phil Lord and Chris Miller……NBC’s Little Big Shots is getting a spin-off series called Little Big Shots: Forever Young. The new program will feature talent on the other end of the age spectrum, as young-at-heart seniors show case their hidden talents. Little Big Shots: Forever Young will also be hosted by Steve Harvey with Ellen DeGeneres producing......American soap opera giant, Anges Nixon has passed away at age 88. Nixon was the creator of ABC daytime dramas All My Children and One Life To Live……The industry is also morning the sudden death of Gary Glasberg, showrunner of NCIS and creator of NCIS: New Orleans, both very successful dramas for CBS. Glasberg, age 50, died peacefully in his sleep in Los Angeles.
WEDNESDAY RATINGS
Empire on FOX maintained its number one position Wednesday night with a 3.6 A18-49 Nielsen rating, down by two tenths from its season premiere. Lethal Weapon on FOX delivered a 1.9 rating in the demo, while Speechless on ABC posted a 1.8 rating, as did Designated Survivor. At the end of the night, all the freshman series did well by maintaining 80% of their premiere ratings. Returning series like Survivor on CBS held steady with 2.1 rating and Criminal Mind’s season premiere did a 1.8, while the Code Black season premiere delivered a 1.2 rating in the demo. The Goldbergs managed a 1.9, Modern Family did a 2.1 and black-ish posted a 1.6 for ABC. NBC’s Blindspot did a 1.2, Law & Order: SVU and Chicago P.D. both posted a 1.5. Penn & Teller: Fool Us and a double run of Whose Line Is It Anyway? all delivered a 0.4 rating for The CW.
REDSTONES WANT A MEDIA REUNION
National Amusements Inc. (NAI) has made it official that it favors reuniting CBS Corp. and Viacom. The Redstone Family-owned company, which controls both CBS and Viacom, formally sent a letter to the boards of both asking them to ''consider a potential combination'' that might offer substantial synergies.
Wells Fargo Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker says the letter makes it clear that a potential combo must be approved by both boards, and neither Sumner Redstone, Shari Redstone, nor David Andelman from NAI will vote or participate in the deliberations. She also noted that NAI has made it clear the Redstones will not consider a sale to any third party of either company, nor any transaction which would result in NAI surrendering voting control.
NIELSEN DOUBLING SAMPLE SIZE
Nielsen announced that it will expand the use of its Portable People Meter (PPM) technology to provide direct persons measurement for Local TV ratings. PPM is already used for radio ratings, with Nielsen having acquired the technology with its purchase of Arbitron. Nielsen says the addition of over 75,000 PPM panelists to Local TV service in 44 markets will effectively double the sample size and provide local clients with ratings “that reflect precise measurement of local viewing behaviors and insights, and boost ratings fidelity.”
Speaking at the TVB Forward conference Jeff Wender, Nielsen VP of Local Media, said the addition of PPM to TV measurement will reduce challenges with zero cells. Also, it will enrich local measurement with “more personal level data.”
Additionally, in the first quarter of 2017, Nielsen will release a stand-alone service that gives local clients in those 44 DMAs the ability to see incremental audience provided by out-of-home viewing. The portability of the PPM technology will measure TV viewing in locations including bars, offices, hotel rooms, and other places outside of the home where TV is watched.
WHAT AGENCIES WANT FROM BROADCASTERS
Advertising transactions are being made on various delivery guarantees, ranging up to as long as Live plus seven days of time-shifted viewing. But TVB President and CEO Steve Lanzano asked ad agency panelists in New York whether they would move to Live plus one day, rather than Live plus same day, as the basic metric for Local TV. “We might get there,” said Jennifer Hungerbuhler of Dentsu Aegis’ Amplifi USA, but mainly she wants data. “It depends on the client,” said Vaughn Ericson of Bernstein Rein Advertising, and Frank Friedman of Zenith Media offered the suggestion that he’d rather see commercial ratings. “They can’t do it,” laughed Lanzano.
Both Friedman and Hungerbuhler complained of the staff time they have to devote to chasing under-delivery and appealed to broadcasters to help reduce that time-consuming burden. “We just need you to run the comp weights so we can move on,” said Hungerbuhler. “Missed spots just drive me crazy,” added Ericson.
MILLENNIALS LIKE PREPAID CARDS
Pre-paid credit cards may historically have been associated with poorer people, but a new report from Packaged Facts says they are gaining popularity with tech savvy Millennials. Giving credit to where credit is due, the report says PayPal, with its prepaid card, is one of the chief industry players responsible for bridging the gap between prepaid cards as a niche commodity and the medium's growing appeal.
"Increasingly competitive on everything from fees to safety and security to transparency, prepaid card accounts have become real alternatives to traditional bank accounts," comments David Sprinkle, research director, Packaged Facts.
The report found that almost half (48%) of prepaid card users have a PayPal prepaid card, well above major players such as Green Dot, NetSpend, American Express and the Walmart MoneyCard. Moreover, some 28% of them say they use the PayPal "the most"—a far higher rate of response than for other cards.
The results suggest that PayPal has become a significant player among consumers seeking alternatives to traditional banking: PayPal prepaid card holders can link their card to a PayPal account—and must do so in order to access any of its online features. This sets PayPal ahead of its competition because no other prepaid card can be directly linked in the same way.
KBB SEES DROP IN SEPTEMBER SALES
Kelley Blue Book (KBB) is out with its forecast that new vehicle sales will drop 2% year-over-year to a total of 1.41 million units in September, resulting in an estimated 17.4 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). That’s similar to the decline forecast by J.D. Power/LMC.