<20091121>
Archived distributions can be retrieved at; <http://preview.tinyurl.com/35zedj> This archive includes a html version of this list distribution and its MS/WORD version with its filename as “year-month-date.doc.” You can also access all of its attachments, if any.
Ralph Coolidge Huntsinger <
Prof. Roy E. Crosbie <
Priscilla R. Elfrey <
Leslaw Michnowski <
References:
(a) "Globally Collaborative Environmental Peace Gaming (GCEPG)"
http://tinyurl.com/k2c7a
(b) (20091014) (1) Possible connections for the creation of the Middle East and Middle East Early Warning System (MEEWS) and (2) Flyer on "Grand Challenges on Modeling and Simulation for International Cooperation on Crises and Risky Enterprises"
http://tinyurl.com/ykavugs
(c) Jablonowski, M., “Increasing Uncertainty About High-Stakes Risks:
The Impetus for Radical Change?,” The 28th North American Fuzzy Information Processing Society Annual Conference (NAFIPS2009) Cincinnati, Ohio, USA - June 14 - 17, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/yeev89v
(d) Michnowski L., “To Overcome the Global Crisis: Toward sustainable development policy and economy”
http://tinyurl.com/yazgtmc
(e) (20091112) Report on our visit to IBM on November 3rd, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/yamu346
Dear Ralph:
(1) Many thanks for your msg (ATTACHMENT I).
We are now working on the creation of Global Early Warning System (GEWS), which is the outgrowth of our GCEPG project (see Reference (b) above), and which was proposed by the Prime Minister of the U.K., Mr. Gordon Brown, at the G20 mtg in London last April, and which was suggested by Leslaw — see below for his msgs.
Our GEWS (which is the extension of GCEPG) is to run the national economy simulation model all the time, continuously and repetitively, say, from the year 2000 to 2050, as similar to a repetitive analog computer. The graphical presentation of the year 2000 to the present would be the past data, and the one from the present to the 2050 would be the prediction made by the simulation model. The initial conditions at the present would be revised with the fresh input data, say, about the national consensus or GDP (gross domestic product) figure, etc. This makes the simulation as similar to the one of a nuclear power plant simulator/trainer — or it could be the engine of a large oil tanker, which President Obama often quotes as analogous to the operation of the United State economy.
BTW, after the conference at CICR of Columbia University next May (see Item (6) below), we plan to install Prof. Onishi’s FUGI world econometric simulation model, which has 192 country models and 8 UN sector models. He has agreed to replace each of them with the ones made by the experts of each countries, as observing the basic iron rule #1 of simulation, i.e., “Make simulation close to SIMULAND as much as possible.”
(2) We are pretty much honored and privileged to have your help to our project — particularly with the members of the McLeod Institute of Simulation Sciences (MISS), which you founded, and has prominent members around the world <http://www.scs.org/resources/text/miss.html> -- BTW, this was once suggested by Mrs. John McLeod (Suzette) as soon as it was founded.
As you see in the Reference (b) above, Roy (one of your MISS members at your Chico campus) kindly introduced our project to Priscilla R. Elfrey of NASA.
Dear Leslaw:
(3) Many thanks for your msgs (ATTACHMENT II and III), with various excellent articles.
Congratulations for your article appearing in the newsletter of the Club of Rome/European Support Center <http://clubofrome.at/news/newsflash68.html>.
I also thank you for your msgs (ATTACHMENT IV) with a very interesting paper by Prof. Mark Jablonowski (Reference (c) above), and (ATTACHMENT V) with Reference (d) above.
Dear Ralph:
(4) When you will be in Poland next time, pls make sure to meet with Leslaw to discuss the construction of Polish national socio-energy-environment simulation model. You may rekindle your contact with the following person;
Prof. Witold Kosinski, Ph.D.
Vice-President for Scientific Affairs
Polish-Japanese Institute of Information Technology
86 Koszykowa St.
02-008 Warsaw, POLAND
Telephone: +48 22 621-03-73
+48 22 622-55-34 ext. 101
Fax: +48 22 621-03-72
or
Prof. dr hab. Witold Kosinski
Prorektor ds. Naukowych
Polsko-Japonska Wyzsza Szkola Technik Komputerowych
ul. Koszykowa 86
02-008 Warszawa, POLSKA
BTW, he has been receiving our list distributions.
(5) I would also greatly appreciate it if you can kindly encourage the members of your MISS to construct their countries’ national-socio-energy-environment simulation models, and join in our GEWS project to interlink their models together.
(6) We will have a demonstration (*) of gaming/simulation on the energy policies proposed by Former Vice President, Mr. Al Gore and President Barack Obama to replace fossil fuel with renewable one to generate electricity in the United States in relation to appropriate allocation of oil revenue in Niger Delta of Nigeria, -- What would be the consequences to other economic and social structures in the US and in other countries, particularly Nigeria? — This is because 95% of Nigerian revenue comes from oil export, 40% of which is exported to north America.
(*) This is to be held during Global Symposium on: Climate Change and International Peace and Security, Global Challenges and Global Solutions: Interdisciplinary Approaches Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR) in the School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA) of Columbia University in May 2010.
Millennium Institute has started constructing national energy simulation model for 15 member countries of the Economic Community Of West African States (ECOWAS) -- starting with Nigeria. This model will then be interlinked with the US national model which the Millennium Institute already have, in order to find out the consequences of the US energy policies upon Nigeria — I am now working to have the IBM’s cloud computing service for this project — see Reference (e) above.
(7) After the conference at the CICR at Columbia University is over, we plan to have one-day workshop at Polytechnic Institute of NYU to discuss the technicalities of our projects. The key to this discussion is to configure how to interlink various models.
Choice of simulation methodologies should be left to the experts of each country (as far as they can produce time-series table as similar to EXCEL), and what we have to concern is only how to interconnect exogenous variables among inter-related countries and sectors. For this, we would need the consistency of units and definition of variables.
http://tinyurl.com/avqlkc>
I am very delighted to have you in charge of this part of our project, as you agreed before. Pls schedule to attend this workshop next May.
(8) I notice somewhere in our web site that your motto is;
“Computer simulation is FUN!!”
I agree with you 100% with my experiences in late 1950s to early 1970s, and recall a Chinese proverb saying;
“Sharing your joy is the ultimate joy!!”
You would also need to emphasize the importance of educating young would-be decision makers who are now in the teens and twenties who would become real decision makers at their 50 to 70 years ages around 2050s, when most of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals (MSGs) would not meet their targets, and hence would become fierce, severe resource competitions and conflicts issues. Their training in crisis management, conflict resolution, and negotiation techniques should be basing on "facts and figures." Their understanding gained with scientific and rational analysis and critical thinking with the gaming/simulation would be the basis of world peace, and hence ought to provide the basic principle of global education for peace.
(9) Yes, Go, Go Bobcat!! You and I are its members, as the alumni of Montana State University of Bozeman.
I still remember my good old days at the lab of its Chemical Engineering Department where you and I studied, under the deep blue “Big Sky” of Montana which fostered our BIG HOPE!!
Keep in touch — and hope to see you next May here in NYC.
Best, Tak
ATTACHMENT I
From: "Professor R. C. Huntsinger" <
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:25:20 -0800
To: Tak Utsumi <
Cc: "Huntsinger, Prof Ralph (Emeritus)" <
Subject: Greetings from California
Dr Tak,
What has happened to the World Peace Gaming project?
I was willing to help with the computer simulations of proposed models made up of describing differential equations. What is the status???
Best regards, Prof Ralph
p.s. Go MSU Bobcats !!!
--
*************************************
Ralph Coolidge Huntsinger, Ph.D., [SCS] Fellow
(Society for Modeling and Simulation International)
Founder, Emeritus Director, and the International Ambassador
of the McLeod Institute of Simulation Sciences (MISS)
------
Registered Chemical Professional Engineer (MT2530E)
+1 530 521 3456 USA Mobile Phone
+1 530 343 3556 USA FAX
E-mail:
------
Emeritus Professor of Mechanical Engineering
Emeritus Professor of Computer Science
College of Engineering, Computer Science, and Construction Mgmt.
California State University, Chico 95929 USA
E-Mail:
member - CSU, Chico Faculty Senate
------
Professor [Engineering and Automation]
Beihang University
-Guest Full Professor 2009-2014
(Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)
BUAA Simulation Center
Beijing, P.R. China
E-Mail:
------
Adjunct Full Professor
Department of Computing Science
Humboldt State University, California
The California State University System
College of Natural Resources and Sciences
Environmental Resources Engineering
Arcata, California 95521 USA
E-Mail:
------
Professeur Associe au LITIS
Laboratoire d'Iformatique, du Traitment de
l'Information et des Systemes
INSA-ROUEN (Rouen, Haute Normandie)
Institut National des Sciences Appliquees de Rouen
FRANCE
E-Mail:
****************************
Attached files:
(a) International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing (IJMSSC)
Professor R. C. Huntsinger, Editor-in-Chief
<IJMSSC-AimsScope.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/ykaemav
(b) Cover of International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing, Vol. 1, No. 1, March 2010
<IJMSSC-new-cover.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/yzoekvw
(c) Call for Papers: “Modeling and Simulation – Methodology, Tools, Applications,
July 11-14, 2010, Ottawa, Canada
<M&S-MTA-10-CFP-2.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/yfpvoft
(d) Resume of Ralph Coolidge Huntinger, Ph.D.
<CV09-6.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/ylr7pgb
(e) Prof. Huntinger’s Ph. D. Diploma from Montana State University in Bozeman, Montana
<MSU-PhD.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/ybh8p86
(f) Prof. Huntinger’s Business Card for Society for Modeling & Simulation International
<SCS-Card.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/yebpbpl
(g) Prof. Huntinger’s Business Card for Beihang University in Beijing, China
<Image0017.pdf<http://tinyurl.com/y9w9f73
ATTACHMENT II
From:
Date: Sun, 15 Nov 2009 13:41:55 +0100
To: Tak Utsumi <
Subject: 2009 Leaders' Declaration - "Sustaining Growth, Connecting the Region"- APEC Singapore 2009
Dear Tak,
The APEC support for our SD activity:
We encourage ongoing efforts towards using ICT to address socio-economic issues and realising APEC’s goal of achieving universal access to broadband in all member economies by 2015.
http://www.apec2009.sg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=311:2009-leaders-declaration-qsustaining-growth-connecting-the-regionq&catid=39:press-releases&Itemid=127 <http://www.apec2009.sg/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=311:2009-leaders-declaration-qsustaining-growth-connecting-the-regionq&catid=39:press-releases&Itemid=127>
When we are building global (distributed) early warning system we ought to treat it as one of the first steps in creation of THE WORLD INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT POLICY AND ECONOMY.
For sustainable development economy we need global information system that will allow us the access to data about complex (including social and environmental, as well as long range) profits and cost of economic activity.
See inter alia:
http://clubofrome.at/news/newsflash68.html <http://clubofrome.at/news/newsflash68.html>
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/ung20footnotes.htm <http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/ung20footnotes.htm> .
Best,
Leslaw.
ATTACHMENT III
From:
Date: Sun, 04 Oct 2009 17:57:15 +0200
To: Tak Utsumi <
Cc: "" <
Subject: Globla crisi and early warning
Dear Tak,
To overcome durably global civilizational crisis we need among others to convince “global power elite”, that:
1. – Jay W. Forrester is right, when he call for creating simulation methods for policy (including changes in infrastructure) projecting and decision-making, see:
- 1995, Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems:
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4468-2.pdf , and
- 1998, Designing the Future, D-4726 -
http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/papers/Designjf.pdf <http://sysdyn.clexchange.org/sdep/papers/Designjf.pdf> ;
1. - A. P. Sage is right when he call for supplementing above Forrester call by means of systems/cybernetics knowledge in the form of conceptual model of reality and proper/adequate value system for policy projects and effects, see:
Michnowski, Leslaw, Sustainable Development Policy Making – Challenges and Opportunities, Co-author: Marek Haliniak, PRESENTATION of paper for Conference: Creativity and Innovation, European Year 2009, International Greening Education Event, Karlsruhe, Germany, 30th September – 2nd October 2009:
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/MHLMKarlsruhe.ppt ;
1. - we need to popularize - beside global early warning system building - cybernetics/general information theory (N. Wiener, J. W. Forrester, A. P. Sage) for example by including into UNESCO tasks program: “THE INFORMATION CULTURE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT E- GOVERNANCE SHAPING”, see:
http://www.psl.org.pl/kte/Global%20CIVILIZATIONAL%20Crisis_3.pdf ;
1. – without approving ecohumanistic value system, it is impossible to build information bases for Sustainable Development policy and economy, as well as durably overcome global crisis, see:
http://pelicanweb.org/solisustv05n10page2michnowski2.html ;
http://clubofrome.at/news/newsflash68.html <http://clubofrome.at/news/newsflash68.html> ,
How can we achieve it?
Regards –
Leslaw.
ATTACHMENT IV
From: <
Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:06:34 +0200
To: Tak Utsumi <
Subject: FW: Global crisis & backcasting
Dear Tak,
Below feedback from net on our global feedforward - simulations (early warning) - proposals.
Best Regards
Leslaw.
-----Original Message-----
From: Mark Jablonowski [mailto:
Sent: Tuesday, June 30, 2009 12:01 AM
To:
Subject: RE: Global crisis & backcasting
Thank you Leslaw for this information. As you may be aware, similar ideas of "early warning" and "systematic regulation" of financial risk have been proposed by our US President, Barrack Obama and his staff. Please be aware that both "warning" and "systematic" are used in ways far narrower than your global system dynamics analysis. I am afraid we are still doing too much risk management "by pieces", that is WITHOUT THE PROPER WORLD CONTEXT. As such, I believe that its only real effect will be to calm people, if only until the NEXT crisis.
Backcasting in this case would suggest possibly changing systems to achieve desired economic/ ecological goals - NOT JUST ADJUSTING CURRENT SYSTEMS TO WORK BETTER ("forecasting"). Please do not take current discussions of "early warning" in the economic domain as evidence that the world is recognizing the importance of monitoring world systems (INETRTWINED ECONOMIC ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS). I believe that once again the effort may be more symbolic than real. Which is not a bad thing, it just does get at root causes.
I expand on the idea of backcasting and systematic risk planning in my new book, "Managing High-Stakes Risk: Toward a New Economics for Survival" that will be published by Palgrave Macmillan this Fall. I also attach here the finished paper, "Increasing Uncertainty About High-Stakes Risk: The Impetus for Radical Change?", that I presented recently at a special session on risk management at the University of Cincinnati, USA.