February 27, 2005
Raymond Kwan
www.zackspro.com 155 North Wacker Drive l Chicago, IL 60606
Peoples Energy Corporation (PGL-NYSE) – $43.08
Overview
Peoples Energy Corporation is a holding company and does not engage directly in any business of its own, but does provide administrative services that support the business activities of its subsidiaries. Income is derived principally from the Company's regulated utility subsidiaries, The Peoples Gas Light and Coke Company and North Shore Gas Company. The Company also derives income from its other subsidiaries, Peoples Energy Resources Company, LLC (Peoples Energy Resources), Peoples Energy Services Corporation (Peoples Energy Services), Peoples Energy Production Company (Peoples Energy Production) and Peoples District Energy Corporation (Peoples District Energy). The Company has six business segments: Gas distribution, Oil and gas production, Power generation, Midstream services, Retail energy services, and Corporate and other. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2004 (fiscal 2004), the Gas distribution segment accounted for 66% of Company's revenues. PGL’s head office is located in Chicago, IL with employees totaling 2,370. Additional information about the Company can be found at: www.peoplesenergy.com
Analysts have identified the following factors for evaluating investment merits of PGL.
Key Positive Arguments / Key Negative Arguments· Company may realize higher gas prices going forward as management plans to reduce hedging activities in ’05.
· PGL expects cost saving in the Gas Distribution and corporate division to exceed the targeted $15MM in 2005.
· Because PGL’s gas system is connected to seven interstate pipelines, the Company is able to bargain gas volumes at reasonable prices.
· Company maintains a pristine balance sheet compared to its peers and currently retains favorable fixed interest rates on a majority of its long term debt.
· PGL’s varying business segments such as oil and gas production, retail services, midstream and power generation provides a means to diversify the Company from its slow growing gas distribution business. / · Company’s Gas Distribution segment posted a 7% YoY operating income decline in the 1Q’05, despite restructuring effort.
· Gas equivalent volumes decreased 6% QoQ due the tight market for rigs and pipeline curtailment in the San Juan basin.
· PGL’s Gas Distribution segment is highly sensitive to changes in weather.
· PGL’s share price may experience downward pressure due to the rising interest rate environment.
· Management has reduced its growth expectations for the Oil and Gas Production division from 8-10% to 5-10%.
· Company recently raised its dividend by only $0.005 per share, which is 50% less than the historical $0.01 per share increase.
Peoples Energy Corporation posted weaker than expected 1Q’05 results. EPS from continuing operations was $0.06 lower than the Street consensus of $0.83 per share due to warmer weather, tight rig capacity, and pipeline curtailment in the San Juan basin. Most analysts expect continued weakness in both the Gas Distribution and Oil and Gas Production segments and believe a lower targeted share price for PGL is justified over the next 12-18 months. Accordingly, most analysts have trimmed their FY’05 EPS estimates.
Revenues
Fiscal Year Ends: December$ in millions / FY2003A / FY2004A / FY2005E / FY2006E
Digest High / 2,138.4 / 2,260.2 / 2,366.8 / 2,413.7
Digest Low / 2,138.4 / 2,260.2 / 2,311.2 / 2,242.0
Digest Average / 2,138.4 / 2,260.2 / 2,339.0 / 2,327.9
Digest Average YoY Growth / nf / 5.70% / 3.49% / -0.48%
Revenues in the 1Q’05 were lighter than expected due to warmer-than-normal weather and lower production volumes in the Gas Distribution and Oil and Gas Production segments, respectively. The revenue outlook for the remainder of 2005 and into 2006 is projected to be modest to nil, as weather in January 2005 is nearly 100 degree days warmer. Additionally, PGL lowered ’05 production growth guidance from 8-10% to 5-10% due to limited rig availability.
Please refer to Zacks Research Digest spreadsheet for specific revenue estimates.
Margins
FY2004A / FY2005E / FY2006E / Trend(up/down)
Operating Profit Margin / 7.96% / 8.83% / 9.40% / Up
FY2005E operating profit margin is expected to be 87 basis points higher than FY2004. Much of this gain is believed to be a result of continued cost cutting initiatives in the Gas Distribution unit as well as higher natural gas prices going forward. Management currently anticipates cost savings in the Gas Distribution unit to exceed the $15MM targeted in ’05.
Please refer to Zacks Research Digest spreadsheet for specific margin estimates.
Earnings Per Share
Fiscal Year Ends: September$ in millions / 1Q05A / 2Q05E / 3Q05E / 4Q05E / FY2005E / FY2006E
Digest High EPS / 0.77 / 1.60 / 0.36 / 0.23 / 2.80 / 2.95
Digest Low EPS / 0.77 / 1.43 / 0.20 / 0.12 / 2.62 / 2.73
Digest Average / 0.77 / 1.50 / 0.29 / 0.16 / 2.72 / 2.82
Digest Average YoY Growth / -10.29% / 2.40% / 90.00% / 267.42% / 8.07% / 3.68%
Please refer to Zacks Research Digest spreadsheet for more extensive EPS figures.
Target Price/Valuation
Target prices for PGL range from $35.00 to $45.00 with an average price of $39.75. The most common valuation method is a 13-15x 2006 EPS estimate.
Please refer to Zacks Research Digest Spreadsheet for further details on valuation.
Long-Term Growth
People Energy Corporation faces declining customer demand in its Gas Distribution segment. Over the past five years, the business unit has experienced a 0.6% customer base decline compared to the industry average growth rate of 1.5% due to the highly saturated and competitive market for which the Company serves. Despite PGL’s regulatory effort to ensure rate relief in case of milder weather, analysts still expect modest earnings recovery with continued deterioration in customer demand going forward. It should be mentioned that some analysts (AG Edwards) believe PGL will oft for a possible utility acquisition in order to bolster its slow growing utility division. On a positive note, the Company’s other divisions continues to support the bottom line even with tight rig availability in the Oil and Gas Production division. Notably, management has indicated its intention to reduce its power generation portfolio through likely working interest disposition in its New Mexico and Oregon sites. Over the medium term, a final order on the Gas Charge issue with the City of Chicago/Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) is expected to be announced in the 2H’05. The City of Chicago alleges PGL overcharged customer and thus owes an estimated $149MM in refunds.
Individual Analyst Opinions
NEUTRAL RATINGS
AG Edwards – The stock is rated HOLD with no given price target. Firm believes PGL is justly priced at current levels. Analyst also cites the possibility of an acquisition in order sustain the Company’s slow growing utility division.
Baird – The stock is rated NEUTRAL with a $43.00 price target. Analyst indicates that a more normalized 2005 weather pattern combined with the Company’s current cost cutting initiatives should boost earnings higher in 2005. Looking ahead, PGL is well positioned to capitalize on stronger commodity prices.
Lehman Brothers – The stock is rated 2-EQUAL WEIGHT with a $42.00 price target. Analyst notes that any resolution to the winter 2000/01 overcharging case with the City of Chicago will be a positive driver for the Company going forward.
Merrill Lynch – The stock is rated NEUTRAL with no given price target.
NEGATIVE RATINGS
Banc of America – The stock is rated SELL with a $35.00 price target. Analyst believes PGL’s current dividend payout is unsustainable over the long term given the rising interest rate environment, commodity price volatility, and lower expected operating income.
JP Morgan – The stock is rated UNDERWEIGHT with no given price target. While the Company has quoted that rig availability is not an issue going forward, the analyst believes PGL will still face execution issues in its Oil and Gas Production segment.
Smith Barney – The stock is rated SELL (3) with a $37.00 price target. The analyst’s current rating is based on PGL’s disappointing 2005 earnings outlook and current valuation concerns. It should be noted that Smith Barney officially discontinued its coverage on February 10, 2005 due to the analyst departure.
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