12 Future challenges: population
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12.1 Australia's population is growing
Before 1788, Australia's population, which consisted entirely of Indigenous Australians, is estimated at between 300 000 and 750 000. By the end of 2009, the population had grown to 22 million, and it is expected to reach 24 million by 2020. Australia's population is increasing at a rate of 1.8 per cent per year — faster than China (0.6 per cent) but slower than Papua New Guinea (2.7 per cent).
In 2008, Australia's population grew at its fastest rate in nearly 20 years, with immigration being the main driver. In that year, Western Australia recorded the fastest population growth at 2.7 per cent, followed by Queensland (2.3 per cent).
Today, Australia is the fifty-third most populous country in the world: 2.5 per cent of Australia's population are Indigenous, 40 per cent have at least one parent born overseas and 91 per cent live in urban areas.
Current and future population trends
Population growth or decline is the product of four factors: births, deaths, immigration (arrivals from other countries) and emigration (Australian residents moving overseas). The rate of natural increase is births minus deaths, and net overseas migration is immigration minus emigration.
Australia's population clock indicates that one more person is added to the Australian population every 1 minute and 31 seconds as there is:
· one birth every 1 minute and 51 seconds
· one death every 3 minutes and 48 seconds
· a net gain of one international migrant every 2 minutes and 38 seconds.
In 2008, net overseas migration contributed to 59 per cent of population growth, with the remainder (41 per cent) coming from natural increase.
Australia's population is projected to increase to between 33.7 and 62.2 million people by 2101. Line A shows the highest growth estimates, line C shows the lowest estimates, and line B is based on current population growth patterns.
Australia's current population trend indicates an ageing population with declining fertility rates. If this trend continues without an increase in immigration, deaths will exceed births by 2041 and Australia's population will decline.
Every five years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) conducts a census to collect information about Australia's population, such as size, rate of change, spatial distribution, age structure and migration. This information enables governments to predict future population trends, determine where to build new schools and hospitals, and assess where there will be increased need for housing and transport. Generation Z (those born after 2000) will live longer and will most likely pay higher taxes to cover the costs of an ageing population.
Components of Australia's past, current and future population growth rates
Million milestones: Australian population trends
Future trends: deaths may exceed births in 30 to 40 years.
Population — Australia's ‘big threat’
BY PETER KER
Prominent Australians have thrown their support behind a controversial new book which argues that population growth is the biggest threat to environmental sustainability in this country.
The book Overloading Australia by Mark O’Connor and William Lines argues that pro-immigration and ‘baby bonus’ policies are at odds with plans to reduce carbon emissions and secure water supplies.
‘The task of simultaneously increasing population and achieving sustainability is impossible’, the book argues.
Predicting Australian cities will suffer more congestion, pollution, loss of biodiversity and diminished services, the authors argue there is no point conserving water ‘until we get restraint in population’.
The Australian Conservation Foundation has also called for a reduction in the nation's skilled migration program, stating that ‘population increase makes it harder for Australia to reduce carbon pollution levels and is placing stress on state and regional planning, infrastructure and ecological systems’.
Adapted from The Age, 24 January 2009.
GEOskills TOOLBOX
STATISTICAL DATA AND COMBINED GRAPHS
Statistical data are very useful for showing change over time. When comparing sets of data from different years, check that each data set is measuring the same things — otherwise it will not be a valid comparison.
Statistical data is often presented in a visual format, such as a line, bar or column graph. The combined line and column graph above shows projected changes over time in Australia's population, and makes it possible to show a lot of statistical information in one graph.
Future challenges
The federal government has identified three population challenges: to support the elderly; sustain a demographically diverse population; and protect the environment. A key question is the number of people that Australia can sustain ecologically.
ACTIVITIES
UNDERSTANDING
1. List the main factors that determine population.
2. List Australia's future population challenges.
3. Describe the current trends in the Australian population.
4. Explain the importance of census information for governments.
THINKING AND APPLYING
5. Debate the statement: ‘Australia's current and future population is unsustainable’.
USING YOUR SKILLS
6. Refer to the graph of future trends.
o a Calculate the expected population growth from 2021 to 2101.
o b What population component is anticipated to make up the largest percentage of future population growth? Give reasons for your answer.
o c How do you account for the downward trend in natural increase from 2001?
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· Melissa Preston
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