Page 1Rev: 14 Feb14
Juneau, Alaska
14 February 14
NREL Colleagues, NREL:
Thank you for your Energy Systems Integration program, and for the excellent modeling results published in IEEE PES "Power & Energy" magazine and elsewhere.
We now need to take the "Renewable Electricity Futures Study" to the next level, a "Renewable Energy Futures Study", to conceive and model complete renewable energy (RE) systems -- from photons and moving air and water molecules to delivered energy services.
Such RE systems would be technically and economically optimized for our urgent goal, as energy professionals and humans: nothing less than "running the world on renewables" -- plus perhaps some degree of nuclear, now very hard to predict.
By nothing less may we hope to avoid the severe, urgent consequences of our Big Four threats:
1. Rapid climate change, generally global warming
2. Ocean acidification
3. Sea level rise
4. Species extinctions
NREL or another respected entity should convene a workshop to launch the Renewable Energy Futures Study.
We cannot afford another two decades and a trillion dollars invested in the electricity grid, if we are barking up the wrong tree, a technically and economically suboptimal tree: too many RE eggs in the electricity basket.
We now need a "Renewable Energy Futures Study", to include:
1. Emulating the oil and natural gas industry, which is not contemplating a "smart grid" because it has abundant, inherent, low-cost storage and underground infrastructure generally protected from acts of God and man.
It supplies twice as much primary energy as the electricity system, in OECD countries. Annual O&M costs are lower, per GW-km of transmission service capacity, than the electricity industry's.
2. "Electrofuels", as Dr. Majumdar, ARPA-E director, called them, which would include hydrogen and "the other hydrogen", anhydrous ammonia, and hydrocarbon (HC) fuels made from H2 and CO2.
3. Alternatives to electricity systems for gathering and transmission, annual scale firming storage, and integration of diverse, stranded renewables, both centralized and distributed. Gaseous hydrogen (GH2) and anhydrous ammonia (NH3) would be salient, but not exclusive, alternatives.
4. Recognizing that we don't know whether gaseous or liquid "solar fuels" , "biofuels" , or "nuclear fuels" will be less costly than RE-source electricity, perhaps taking market share from electricity systems.
These fuels will be transported primarily in underground pipelines and stored at low cost in deep salt caverns and in steel surface tanks, achieving an annually-firm, dispatchable, RE supply.
5. The possibility that ubiquitous deep geothermal heat, via new low-cost hard rock boring technique(s), will provide competitive baseload electricity and District Heating System (DHS) heat to microgrids.This would be the ultimate Distributed Energy Resources (DER) system, redefining the electricity grid.
6. Identifying plausible cases for future energy systems with annual average renewables-source content approaching 100%. These cases will be thoroughly modeled, technically and economically, suggesting still more cases and the R&D projects necessary to investigate them.
7. Gathering and transmission capital and O&M costs are generally lower in pipelines than via electricity lines. Bulk energy storage capital cost is about:
a. $US 0.20 as GH2 at ~ 150 bar in deep solution-mined salt caverns;
b. $US 0.10 as liquid NH3 in large, refrigerated, steel, "atmospheric" tanks, or ~ 15 bar in "propane" tanks.
Only by such a "Renewable Energy Futures Study" may we discover -- and demonstrate and verify via demonstration projects and pilot plants -- the technical and economic advantages, if any, of RE-source fuel systems vis-a-vis electricity systems.
We still confuse "electricity" and "power" and "energy". We need to supply all humanity's energy, from all sources for all purposes, via diverse renewables, soon, thereby converting the world's largest industry -- energy -- from primarily fossil to primarily renewable sources. We probably cannot do that, and should not try to, via electricity systems, alone or primarily.
I have proposed to others, and now to NREL, that we begin with an eclectic workshop of perhaps two days, to define the "Renewable Energy Futures" opportunity and strategy and resources needed to thoroughly pursue it.
It might be subtitled or purposed as, "Alternatives to Electricity for Gathering and Transmission, Annual-scale Firming Storage, and Distribution and Integration of Diverse, Stranded, Renewable Resources at Micro to Continental Network Scales". We can easily name 50 people or organizations who should attend, though 25 is probably optimum for a first workshop; others may follow. Organizations other than NREL might convene and host the workshop.
Please consider these motivations for the workshop: (see attached files)
A. We need to supply ALL energy, not just electricity, from RE
Resnick Institute, Caltech, published the results of a two-year workshop-initiated research process: "Grid 2020 -- Towards a Policy of Renewable and Distributed Energy Resources". It is a catalog of reasons why we don't want to try to enlarge and adapt the electricity system to supply a large fraction of humanity's energy from diverse renewables, from centralized or distributed resources. It should motivate us to look "beyond smart grid", which is primarily DSM, and does not necessarily add any physical transmission or storage capacity.
Energy visioning and planning should embrace all energy sources and uses, because:
a. We do not know the optimum systems for generation, transmission, storage, and integration of diverse renewables at the "disruptive" scales necessary to "run the world on renewables";
b. Electricity may be best provided, to both OECD and developing nations, as on-site:
(1) Electricity generation from solar, wind, and / or diverse other renewables;
(2) CHP generation from renewables-source fuels transmitted and distributed to the site via extant and new pipeline systems;
c. In the presence of indigenous renewable resources, and the absence of an electricity grid, an "energy island" community needs affordable, annual-scale, energy storage in order to "run itself on renewables";
d. Worldwide, electricity provides only about one-third of humanity's primary energy, while we need to provide all our energy -- from all sources for all purposes -- from renewables.
B. Electric utilites, as we know them, may disappear. What should replace them?
The electricity grid may retreat, under the pressure of our need to "run the world on renewables", to the last mile, or last kilometer, or to on-site CHP generation from ubiquitous distribution of renewables-source fuels. This would be disruptive.
Jim Rogers, recently-retired Duke Energy CEO, presaged this in his keynote at PowerGen International, Orlando, 13 Dec 13: (paraphrased; not verbatim)
"If everyone puts PV on their roof and a big enough battery in the garage, we'll be left providing only backup power."
Similar thoughts at:
And Rogers also said in a recent interview:
"I'd want the solar on the rooftop. I'd want to run that. I'd want the ability to deploy new technologies that lead to productivity gains to the use of electricity in homes and businesses. I would go after the monopoly that I see weakened over the last 25 years. My goal would be to take customers away from utilities as fast as I could, because I think they're vulnerable. Regulations will not be changed fast enough to protect them. The business model will not be changed fast enough."
Many presentations at EUEC 2014, 3-5 Feb, Phoenix, described the squeeze electric utilities face from several directions:
a. Stalled growth in electricity demand;
b. Large IPP plants delivering time-varying electricity to the grid, resisting curtailment;
c. Distributed energy resources, large and small, from natural gas or from renewables delivering
time-varyingsurplus energy to the grid, expecting monetary reward and no curtailment
d. Customers' expectation that electric utilities will provide unlimited backup and dispatchable energy at no additional cost
e. Their urge to invest in "Smart Grid", hoping it will be a panacea, needing to show that utilities are "working on the problem"
Electric utilities' plight is worsening:
a. Coal plant retirement
b. Nuclear plant retirement; new Gen 3+ plants difficult to site and finance; Gen 4-5 plants decade(s) away
c. Overdependent on low-cost natural gas:
(1) Facing higher gas prices if LNG exports from USA proliferate
(2) Threat of yet-unreckoned environmental problems constraining the gas-fracking industry
(3) Loss of electricity system diversity and resilience
C. Costs and delays for repairing electricity systems, from these threats, are high, but we expect and accept them:
1. Weather-related attack: ice and wind storms; 2014 ice storm in eastern USA; Sandy; delays in replacing custom-made assets like large transformers and circuit breakers
2. Human physical attack: recent San Jose, CA substation gunfire
3. Cyberattacks: hundreds are repelled every day. A "smarter grid" may be more vulnerable than today's, with more nodes and more code vectors to exploit
4. Geomagnetic storms
D. We cannot predict whether "solar fuels" , "biofuels", or "nuclear fuels" will be competitive with RE-source electricity, nor what fuels they will be.
Therefore, we need to analyze RE-source fuel systems, including building proof-of-concept pilot plants, in case we need to accommodate large volumes of these fuels. Solar and biofuels will require gathering and transmission pipelines, cavern or tank storage, and distribution pipelines or trucks. GH2 or NH3 C-free "solar" fuels or RE-source HC fuels from H2 and CO2 are pursued by many, including:
1. Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis (JCAP) ,CalTech and LBL. Nathan Lewis,
Scientific Director
2. University of Rochester, GH2 production
"Nanocrystals and Nickel Catalyst"
3. MIT"Artificial Leaf", GH2 production
Daniel Nocera
If nuclear becomes a large fraction of our total energy supply, and if the nuclear plants must be operated as baseload, they will occasionally produce more electricity than the grid will accept at an attractive price, or is able to accept. Then, producing GH2 fuel via high-temp electrolysis, and / or product fuels, may be an attractive option, if fuel infrastructure can accept the fuel(s).
E. "Renewable Energy Futures Study" workshop outcomes should include planning for demonstration pilot plants for both GH2 and NH3 RE-source pipeline systems.
1. My appeal to "Begin Now: Design and Build a Renewables-Source Hydrogen Transmission Pipeline Pilot Plant " is at:
Candidate destination communities and institutions where GH2 fuel would be used include Ames, Iowa and Iowa State University or NDEERC at UND, Grand Forks, ND,
2. Otherwise-curtailed wind energy is now being delivered to the E.ON natural gas transmission pipeline system in Falkenhagen, Germany, achieving no-cost transmission and storage of renewable-source electricity. Rather than diluting "five nines" GH2 in natural gas, a dedicated GH2 pipeline network may be justified.Linepipe materials resistant to H2 attack (HE and HCC) may be available, as polymer- metal composites.This could scaleup, globally, to complete, independent, continental-scale RE systems.
3. A similarrenewables-source ammonia fuel pipeline system could use currently-available components to synthesize NH3 from RE-source electricity via electrolysis plus Haber-Bosch (EHB),
but this is probably a suboptimal process. R&D is needed to develop NH3 synthesis directly from RE- source electricity, H2O, and air (N2), perhaps via:
a. Proton Conducting Ceramic (PCC) reactors of tubular or planar elements in stacked construction
b. Membrane electrode assembly (MEA) using Nafion or other membranes modified to catalyze NH3 formation and survive the NH3 environment.
In USA we have > 3,000 miles of liquid NH3 transmission pipelines, which could theoretically be backfed by RE-source "green" NH3, with pipeline owners' permission, for delivery of "green" ammonia fuel to distant customers. This would be analogous to our present practice of shipping both "brown" and "green" electricity on the same wires, a low-cost introductory transmission and storage strategy.
Iowa State University has organized ten annual conferences of the Ammonia Fuel Association. Presentations at:
F. The workshop must focus on complete RE systems -- from solar photons and moving air and water molecules and geothermal heat to delivered energy services.
If RE sources, large and small, centralized and distributed, are not directly grid-interfaced, their capital and O&M costs will be reduced by eliminating:
a. Need to deliver grid-quality AC. Driving only a GH2 or NH3 or other fuel plant, probably with "wild DC" simply rectified from "wild AC" , will reduce generating system costs.
b. Wind and PV field distribution transformers, underground wiring, and substation costs.
In this strategy, we deliver RE-source fuel(s), not electricity, to customers. Adding energy conversion infrastructure will add capital and O&M RE system costs. Economic modeling will compare and optimize systems and suggest necessary R&D projects.
Spreadsheet computation will suffice for modeling; a supercomputer is not needed because of the long time constants inherent in fuel systems.
G. Fuel transmission and distribution avails us of very-low-cost energy storage for annual-scale firming of RE: $US 0.10 - 0.20 / kWh capital cost.
See storage slides, in attached file "RE-Storage ..." excerpted from:
H. Since energy is the world's largest industry, and a global challenge, the "Renewable Energy Futures Study" workshop(s) should include international participants.
Japan has a difficult task in replacing lost nuclear generation with time-varying renewables, trying integration entirely via electricity. METI's Basic Energy Plan and FIT's are in flux. Japan may need RE-source fuel systems.
China is building the world's largest HVDC transmission systems to bring wind and solar energy > 1,000 km from west and north to load centers in the East and South. Integration of these large RE resources is only beginning; problems accommodating intermittence are unknown. China may need RE-source fuel systems.
One-fifth of humanity has to access to electricity. Another fifth has no access to affordable, quality energy.
OECD and BRIC countries are especially responsible for mitigating Earth's exposure to the Big Four threats on Page 1.
I. FERC Order 1000Regional coordination of interstate electric transmission. Investigate FERC authority or responsibility for interstate GH2, NH3, other RE-source fuel pipelines.
J. Energy Futures Consensus Scenarios 2030 are frightening, unacceptable, and absurd.
If these scenarios are allowed to unfold, we will have so many environmental refugees from rising sea level alone that we will consume all available capital relocating them, with none left for increased energy production.
The above discussion about alternatives to electricity in RE systems is available as live video recordings of my recent conference presentations on DVD, mailed to you by your request. Thank you for your consideration. Please advise me if I may help.
Bill Leighty
Director, The Leighty Foundation (TLF)
Principal, Alaska Applied Sciences, Inc. (AASI)
Box 20993, Juneau, AK 99802-0993
907-586-1426 Cell 206-719-5554
REFERENCES
Systems Integration: A Convergence of Ideas July 2012