Yvonne from CTV phoned today – asked Ellen to have me call Yvonne

Did around 11:30 Dec. 4 2013

Last Friday, November 29, 2013, I received a phone call from Yvonne from CTV who was doing a story about the school closures in mid Vancouver Island. She had been directed to speak with me because of my demographics and statistics work.

I told her that I had served as a Population Analyst for BC Statistics (January 14, 2002 to February 15, 2006)

We discussed the fluctuating enrolment and the fact that in 2010, when the only high school in QualicumBeach was recommended for permanent closure, the methods provided by BC Statistics describing how the post censal population estimates used as a base to come up with projections were not the real methods used.

Also the Ministry of Finance can and does change the projections without informing the public.

In fact, BC Statistics did not inform citizens about the use of the change in telephone landlines, along with electrical landlines, since 2002.

Also the 2010 recommendation to close the high school came just 7 years and 1 month after the same school opened a $10 million expansion.

I mentioned that Scott Fraser raised the point about the fluctuating enrolment with the then Minister of Education, George Abbott ( May 2011).

At that time I had pointed out that the funding formula appears to penalize school districts that expand facilities during growth times only to close those facilities permanently during the down side of the fluctuations.

Since population projections are used to justify opening and closing public, and private, facilities (including closing public schools) a program showing community members how projections can be created was developed.

Yvonne said she would call back.

On Wednesday December 4, 2013 Yvonne called again. She was interested in recording our conversation to address two issues:

The importance of caution when using statistics and

what is happening with the enrolment in Central Vancouver Island areas.

The main points I tried to make were

1) to ensure that the correct methods accompany the numbers rather than incorrect methods accompanying unfounded numbers.

2) That the number of children 5 to 17 years of age and enrolment rises and falls (people may have heard of Boom Bust and Echo)

I also told Yvonne that the program to teach how population projections can be created was shown to two Grade 11 Social Studies classes on Monday December 2, 2013, in preparation of being introduced into classes rooms across Vancouver island, BC and,Canada.

Regarding caution using population projections – be sure to verify that the correct methods accompany the projections. Ensure that the population projections can be reproduced.

BC Statistics changed the methods many times without publicizing the changes nor were there peer reviews of the changes. For example BC Statistics did not inform Statistics Canada about the changes and even sent incorrect methods and numbers to Statistics Canada for an assessment of methods for equalization payments.

Therefore BC Statistics misinformed parents/guardians, and concerned citizens addressing school closures, as well as Statistics Canada addressing equalization payments methods.

If you can not reproduce the numbers being used to justify opening or closing of public facilities then do not use those numbers and instead use population projections that can be reproduced.

Do not accept numbers that are deemed “valid” by a small group of people who will not allow the numbers to be validated by the rest of the community. Numbers that can not be validated are not valid.

By ensuring that the correct methods accompany the projections and by making sure that the numbers can be reproduced (get your high school and undergraduate students to run the models) we can better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, the input data and therefore the findings.

Regarding Enrolment:

To understand change in enrolment it is helpful to understand the change in the number of school aged children, roughly speaking those 5 to 17 years of again, and as we have seen since the release of the 2006 census the number on elementary school children would likely stop declining by around 2008 followed by an increase. Indeed, the relatively high number of high school graduates over the last many years are aging into their family formation years creating another echo which we are seeing in the increase in elementary schools.

The fluctuating age distribution makes planning of opening and closing of public and private facilities difficult, but we benefit from better understanding of how the boom bust echo cycle impact our communities.