Year 10 Population Case Studies

Topic / Case study
Underpopulation / Canada
Overpopulation / Tanzania
High rate of natural population growth / Liberia
Low rate of natural population growth / China
International Migration / Senegal to Europe
High dependent population / Sweden
Densely populated country / Singapore
Sparsely populated country / The Sahel

Name………………………………………………..

Date issued ……………………………………….

Liberia (a country with a high rate of natural population growth)

Africa is predicted to have the highest rate of natural population growth of all continents in the future. Liberia is one of Africa’s smallest countries (4million people) and has recently experienced the continent’s highest NPG rate (over 4.5%). It is one of the world’s poorest countries due to 14 years of civil war that killed 250,000 people and ruined the economy. Unemployment is high (85%) and three quarters of the workers depend on agriculture for a living. The birth is also high because: only 11% of women use contraception; infant mortality is one of world’s 10 highest; 61% of people are below 25; BR is 36 per 1000 people; fertility is worlds 5th highest; literacy rate is 60.8%, and life expectancy is 57.8 years.

China (a country with a low rate of natural population growth)

China has put in place an anti-natalist policy against childbirth. The ‘one child policy’ was introduced in 1979. Before 1979 China had a population explosion. The government decided to restrict family size and recommended marrying later. Between 1958 and 1961, droughts and floods killed 2million Chinese. Harvests returned to normal and the Chinese leader then encouraged child birth creating a second ‘baby boom’. The birth rate soared to 5.8 children per couple, well above the 2.1 needed to keep a stable population (replacement level). In the 70’s again there was a want from the government for fewer children, so the policy was introduced in 1979.

Family planning and contraceptives were made free and there was a One Child certificate for those who followed the policy. They also had extra benefits e.g. better housing; better childcare; better chances of promotion for government employees; longer maternity leave, and cash bonuses. However, there were also penalties for not following the policy: government employees sacked; government employees retirement pensions’ cancelled; fines; farmers who couldn’t pay cash had cattle taken; extra children denied same quality of education and healthcare as first child and the basic rice allowance withdrawn for extra children. Girls and second children were often abandoned or adopted by childless families. Little emperor syndrome also resulted in spoilt boys. It was more successful in cities than rural areas: boys were needed for farms so families here were usually allowed a second child if the first was a boy.

Since 1979 the rules have been relaxed and adoption was legalised. In 2004 Shanghai introduced a local law allowing divorcees who re-marry to have a second child without penalty. In 2008 it was stated the policy would continue for another 10 years. However in Marh 2011 the Chinese govt. announced a review-in future all parents may be allowed a second child.

Fertility rate has been reduced from 5.8 to 2.7. The adult workforce is expected to decrease by 10million after 2025. Parents of one child who has died have been demonstrating wanting compensation for financial hardship as they have no one to look after them in old age.

China has an unbalanced population structure, with more men than women (117 men to 100 women). Age dependency is a concern as older will depend on working population for support. 4-2-1 problem (single children (1), become responsible for caring for parents (2) and four grandparents (4)).

On the other hand France implemented a pro-natalist policy in order to increase children being born. Growth rate in France is mainly due to immigration and not a rise in the fertility rate. It has been successful in stabilising the fertility rate. A popular strategy is Carte FamillesNombreuses (Large Family Card).This is given to families with 3 or more children to obtain discounts on train network and half price on the underground. In Paris there is a Carte Paris-Famille (Paris Family Card) which gives children free entrance to swimming pools and subsidised entry to other sports facilities provided by the city. Other measures include: up to 16 weeks paid maternity leave for first child, rising to 26 for third; childcare facilities subsidised by govt.; system of crèches for toddlers; up to 26 months entitlement to time off work, to be shared by both parents; tax deductions; subsidised state nursery schools; free pre-school facilities; loss of earnings payment for parents of third child; graded income tax system i.ie bigger family, less tax.

Consequences of the Chinese One Child Policy

Positive Consequences

  • Over the 30 years of family planning the population growth has been reduced by 300 million
  • The total fertility rate has fallen: 1970: 5.75, 1990: 2.25, 2000: 1.7(below replacement fertility rate of 2.1)
  • The target set in 1979 was to limit population numbers to 1200 million and to reach zero growth by the year 2000. In 1986, when they realised this was not achievable the limit was adjusted to 1300 million.In 2000 the population was 1,295.33 million and the growth rate was growth rate of 1.07 percent
  • In 2007 the population was 1.3 billion. This is 25% lower than experts predicted it would be without the one child policy

Negative Consequences

  • Male children are seen as more desirable because they continue the family name and look after their parents in old age. Female children on the other hand go to the husband’s family.
  • In 1982, the ratio of girls born to boys in China was 100:110. In 1990 the sex ratio had risen to 100:111.7 at birth. In addition more females than males were dying in their first year of birth
  • Use of ultra sound equipment allows selective abortion of female foetuses. Although the government prohibits identifying the sex of a foetus the explanation can be confirmed by the fact that the highest sex ratios are in urban areas where ultra sound equipment is more readily available
  • In 1990 there were 36.21 million more men than women
  • There has been a dramatic rise" in levels of prostitution and the buying and selling of women.” Police freed more than 42,000 kidnapped women and children in 2001 and 2002. Many were believed to be sold for the purpose of prostitution or as slave wives.
  • In 1989, 5% of the population was aged over 65 years. In 2002 it was 7% and it is predicted that in 2025 as much as 30% of the population will be aged over 65 years. The traditional reliance on children to support parents will need to be replaced by social health care and facilities for elderly people such as retirement homes.
  • Pensions in China are restricted to employees of government jobs and workers in state enterprises. The numbers of people entitled to a pension are decreasing. Therefore, children are seen as an investment for old age.
  • One adult child is left with having to provide support for his or her two parents and four grandparents
  • 2006 China Daily report stated that wealthy couples are increasingly turning to fertility medicines to have multiple births, because of the lack of penalties against couples who have more than one child in their first birth; according to the report, the number of multiple births per year in China had doubled by 2006.
  • As parents lavish too much attention on single off-spring and the number of ‘little emperors’ - spoilt, demanding and obese boys is of growing concern as they grown into teenagers with poor social skill and a selfish mentality.
  • The individual savings rate has increased since the introduction of the One Child Policy. First, the average Chinese household expends fewer resources on children, which gives many Chinese more money with which to invest. Second, since young Chinese can no longer rely on children to care for them in their old age, there is an impetus to save money for the future.
  • The social pressure exerted by the one-child policy has affected the rate at which parents abandon undesirable children, and many live in state-sponsored orphanages. In the 1980s and early 1990s, poor care and high mortality rates in some state institutions generated intense international pressure for reform
  • In various places in China, the government rolled out a ‘Care for Girls’ program, which aims at eliminating cultural discrimination against girls in rural and underdeveloped areas through subsidies and education.
  • It is estimated that 70,000 children are kidnapped there every year and traded on the black market. In modern China, baby girls can be sold for as little as $500. Boys cost $1000-plus

Canada (an under-populated country)

Too many resources and not enough people.

Canada is huge, the second largest country in the world after Russia (9,984,670km2). Vast stretches are uninhabited. GDP (nation’s income) per capita is high. Canada’s greatest resources include oil and gas which are found in remote, wilderness areas. It has a population of 34.4 million and a population density of 3.4 people per km2. The fertility rate is 1.6, and the life expectancy is 81.4. Infant mortality is low at 4.9 showing there is adequate health care. High literacy rates means education is well funded; unemployment is low meaning most people can find suitable work; and quality of life is high.

  1. Natural resources: Longest coastline in world: fish plentiful.
  2. Huge coniferous forests in north: lots of timber.
  3. World’s largest producer of zinc and uranium.
  4. Major producer of gold, nickel, lead, aluminium.
  5. Farm produce: Range of climate types due to size, production of many different crops.
  6. Major global exporter of wheat.
  7. Water resources: More lakes than any other country, holding much of world’s freshwater reserves.
  8. Main industries: Aircraft and car manufacturing; timber; oil refining; aluminium smelting.
  9. Support services: Healthcare paid for by state.
  10. Energy resources: Huge deposits of oil and natural gas; net exporter of energy.
  11. International migration: Encourages 250, 000 new residents each year to increase workforce.
  12. Also welcomes 10% of world’s refugees.
  13. Trade: One of world’s top ten trading nations-most with UK, USA and Japan.
  14. St Lawrence Seaway is vital shipping route.
  15. Major ports on both Atlantic and Pacific Ocean coasts.

Tanzania (an over-populated country)

Too many people and not enough resources.

Tanzania has an area of 947,300 km2 (much smaller than Canada) and a population of 48.3 million (much larger than Canada). If we look at Tanzania there is an infant mortality rate of 45.1 per 1000 live births; a fertility rate of 5.0 per woman; a life expectancy of 60.8; a literacy rate of 69.4% (compared with 99% of Canada) and a much lower quality of life. It is similar to other African countries. It has high youth unemployment and most families depend on agriculture for survival; AIDS and under-nourishment mean few live beyond 65. It has great potential but rapid growth means it can’t improve the standard of living.

International migration (Senegal to Europe)

Senegal is a small country in W.Africa. It has a population of 13 million, growing at a rate of just over 2% each year.It used to be a destination for immigrants from the rest of Africa after independence from France in 1960. Lots were attracted to the stable government and job opportunities, as well as setting up businesses. This has changed over the last decade because an economic crisis from 1990’s onwards dropped living standards; increase in unemployment and lack of jobs even for the educated; rapid pop growth has meant competition for resources (push factors). Many young males emigrate to find work and support families. Many firstly went to France (place specific detail) due to links and the attraction of European life portrayed in magazines and on TV. More recently they have settled in Spain and Italy. Benefits for Senegal include: $600million sent back from migrants, this contributes 8% of GDP; often return with new skills of use in their country; decrease in demand for scarce resources due to less people. Disadvantages for Senegal: healthy young males who would work well at home leave; many are educated; elderly pop left behind putting pressure on healthcare; jealousy and resentment against migrants when they return home; gender imba1lance of more women than men. Disadvantages for migrants: lose self-esteem in poor jobs; pressure from family to send money back; isolation and lack of friends results in depression; exploitation in low paid jobs; possible death in sea crossings; lack of jobs in new country; racial discrimination; financial problems.

High dependent population (Sweden)

Prosperous and highly industrialised countries. There are many well educated women with good careers and incomes, with a life expectancy that is one of the highest in the world. Many adults delay marriage and child rearing and population started to decrease by 1985. Since 2000 it has significantly increased mainly due to refugee migration from war torn countries e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia. Migrants tend to have larger families when they settle in Sweden. There is a large percentage of elderly dependents who rely on the working population. The elderly dependents are a result of increasing life expectancy and low birth rates. This has resulted in greater demand on medical services; increased costs through pensions; growing market for leisure industries to meet demand for older people; increased awareness of grey vote in elections. Sweden has progressed through 5 stages of DTM (economic development: more developed countries are later in DTM).

Remember limitations of DTM: The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America. Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world.

The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a 5th stage. Most texts will now show this stage as it is relevant to an increasing number of MEDCs in the 21st century.

Doesn’t include migration.

Densely populated country (Singapore)

One of only 10 countries that has all its people living in urban areas. It’s a small island, but doesn’t explain why it’s heavily urbanised. It is located at the most southerly tip of the Asian mainland and is a major shipping crossroads. Ships sailing between Indian Ocean ports and the industrialised countries of Japan, China and Australia refuel and discharge or load their cargoes here, creating thousands of jobs for local people. Large, modern industrial estates employ many more. Only 2% of working adults are unemployed; natural pop increase and immigration bring a rise in total pop of almost 5% every year. 28 new towns have been built to provide housing, four have over 200000 inhabitants each. Two-thirds of Singaporeans live in new towns.

Sparsely populated area (The Sahel)

Area south of the Sahara and known as Africa’s famine belt. Farming is the main economic activity (millet, sorghum and cowpea, groundnuts and cotton). Most farmers are nomadic herders who migrate northwards during the wet season and return when the area is too dry. Many use mobile phones for weather forecasts and move animals where rain is predicted to fall. Some water is available near rivers and lakes, but in many deep wells are the only reliable source. During the worst famines, many cattle die as much from starvation as thirst because there is not enough water to irrigate fodder crops. Problems faced are: population doubles every 20 years, faster than increase in food production; aid agencies subsidise 30% of food in the region; farmers grow cash crops on good land instead of food; unsustainable farming methods; few natural resources; anopheles mosquito on increase (more malaria); region includes 3 or 4 poorest countries on earth.

Soil degradation: erosion; salinization and leaching.

Also desertification.