RA II/VI Regional Training Seminar on GDPFS and PWS in Support of

Natural Disaster Reduction

Langen, Germany, 18 – 29 September 2006

PROVISIONAL PROGRAMME

(Revised 27.09.06)

Reference: List of useful Internet accessible sites provided by participants.

Monday 18/09
8:30 – 12:30 / Opening welcome and introduction
o  WMO (WWW/APP)
o  Local hosts and arrangements
Introductory lectures : (subject matter, objectives, seminar programme, concepts). All lecturers involved, introduce selves
o  Training Seminar goals/objectives, programme (Peter Chen)
o  Introduction to NWP and Operational Weather Forecasting (Paul Davies)
o  Why do forecasts go wrong? (Anders Persson)
o  Introduction to forecasting hazardous weather (Wilfried Jacobs) / 15 min
15 min
60 min
60 min
60 min
12:30 – 13:30 / LUNCH
13:30 – 18:00 / o  Conceptual models of hazardous weather situations (Wilfried Jacobs)
o  WMO World Weather Watch / DPFS Programme (Peter Chen)
o  Current weather discussion / Surfing the web (Wilfried Jacobs)
o  Open discussion and feedback, how to involve participants (All) / 120 min
60 min
30 min
30 min
Tuesday 19/09
8:30 – 12:30 / o  NWP products in relation to hazardous weather forecasting (Wilfried Jacobs)
o  Detecting and monitoring hazardous weather (Wilfried Jacobs) / 90 min
120 min
12:30 – 13:30 / LUNCH
13:30 – 18:00 / NWP products in medium-range forecasting
o  NWP and EPS products 1 (Paul Davies)
o  Case study work (medium-range hazardous weather forecasting) (Wilfried Jacobs)
o  Current weather discussion / Surfing the Web (Paul Davies)
o  Hazardous weather forecasting at NMHSs (all participants) / 60 min
90 min
30 min
15 min x 4
Wednesday 20/09
8:30 – 12:30 / o  Uses of NWP “deterministic” versus EPS products (Anders Persson)
o  NWP and EPS products - 2 (Paul Davies)
o  Introduction to EPS, scientific concepts, formulation of operational EPS (Anders Persson) / 60 min
60 min
90 min
12:30 – 13:30 / LUNCH
13:30 – 18:00 / o  Case study work – Use of NWP and EPS products (Paul Davies)
o  Open Forum: “Problems and solutions for hazardous weather forecasting”
o  - Primer 1 (Anders Persson)
o  - Primer 2 (Paul Davies)
o  - Discussion
o  Current weather discussion / Surfing the web (Paul Davies)
o  Hazardous weather forecasting at NMHSs (all participants) / 90 min
10 min
10 min
60 min
30 min
15 min x 4
Thursday 21/09
8:30 – 12:30 / o 
Probabilities and probabilistic forecasting concepts - 1 (Anders Persson)
o  NWP and weather forecasting in Hong Kong Observatory (Wing Mo Leung)
o  Probabilities and probabilistic forecasting concepts - 2 (Anders Persson)
/ 90 min
60 min
60 min
12:30 – 13:30 / LUNCH
13:30 – 18:00 / o  Specialized NWP-based tools for hazardous weather forecasting (Wing Mo Leung)
o  Case study work - short-range and severe weather forecasting (Wing Mo Leung)
o  Current weather discussion / Surfing the web (Anders Persson)
o  Hazardous weather forecasting at NMHSs (All participants) / 60 min
90 min
30 min
15 min x 4
Friday 22/09
8:30 – 12:30 / o  WMO Emergency Response Activities programme (Peter Chen)
o  NWP Verification and Performance (Anders Persson)
o  Hazardous weather forecasting at NMHSs (All participants) / 60 min
90 min
15 min x 4
12:30 – 13:30 / LUNCH
13:30 – 18:00 / o  Programme flexibility- perhaps a session dedicated to QPF and precipitation forecasting
o  Current weather discussion / Surfing the web (Wing Mo Leung)
o  Open forum on the Training Seminar – conclusions/ recommendations
o  Complete WMO Training Seminar Questionnaire (GDPFS)
o  Closing remarks (All) / 120 min
30min
60 min
CLOSURE

Coffee breaks at 10:00 and 15:30 (about 30 minutes)