Prospect of wind energy supply in Iran up to 2030

Niloofar Sharbafian

Rudolf Nurejew Promonade 1/7/15, A-1220, Vienna, Austria

Tel:0043-6644355734

Technology University of Vienna

Overview

Iran is an oil and gas exporting country that endowed with huge reserves of oil and gas. The abundant oil and gas resources among other factors have made this country to use its energy resources in an un-optimized way, paying huge amount of subsidies to fossil energy consumers in all economic sectors. This situation has created a very difficult platform for development of renewable energies in Iran. The renewable energies could be developed merely by governmental supports under the subsidized fossil fuel regime. Government seeks opportunities to develop wind electricity despite of current situation. Energy policy makers were successful to accommodate a renewable law in the fourth 5-years development plan to support development of wind electricity through purchase of wind electricity at guaranteed prices

In order to evaluate the wind potential and the prospect of wind exploitation in Iran, this paper covers the electricity market, electricity price policy, wind electricity policy, wind technology, the wind map and wind profiles in different provinces of Iran. The impact of wind exploitation on environment and oil saving is also touched. A full exploitation of available potential could free up considerable amount of oil for export. Based on a spreadsheet model the prospect of wind energy supply up to 2030 is drawn in different scenarios.

Methods

Various techniques and methods were used to conduct this study including some technical approaches that take into consideration the efficiency and capacity, and probability measures (such as the Weibull approach) to estimate the technical potential of wind energy. Some economic measures such as NPV, IRR of wind project, the projects portfolio, environmental analytical tools and financing methods were used to come up with the economical part of technical potential. A spreadsheet model connects all technical and economical coefficients in a manner that the future stories of renewable energy contribution are forecast up to 2030.

Results

Installed capacity of wind electricity stands at 128 MW in early 2008 that has contributed to 307 GWh electricity generations and 425000 barrel of oil equivalent saving in Iranian power sector prevented 1 million tone of different emission during 1994-2005. Using the real monthly wind data in all provinces of Iran, applying the Weibull density function for usable wind potential, the wind electricity potential was estimated at 3.6 GW. Based on current energy policies and the guaranteed renewable electricity prices the NPV and IRR of wind projects in 3 most promising provinces i.e. Gilan , Sistan & Baluchistan and South Khorasan were calculated. The economic evaluation confirmed the economic viability of wind exploitation in these provinces. Only by abolishment of subsidies on fossil fuels along with a market-oriented supportive approach it would be possible to realize 3.6 GW wind capacity. This is translated to an annual 47 million barrel of oil equivalent saving (or 127000 b/d) in the Iranian power sector.

Conclusions

Iran is a leading country among the Persian Gulf countries in developing wind electricity. Despite the recent efforts in development of wind industry in Iran, the private sector has not been seriously considering investment in wind electricity generation. In order to exploit all wind potential available in Iran a comprehensive policy package is required to be approved by the Iranian parliament. In this policy package government should provide technical information and data for private sector, a preferred low interest rate for wind project with least bureaucratic process, gradual abolishment of fossil fuel subsidies, and CO2 abatement credit for wind project among other encouraging measures. A further research on required policies toward a market-oriented development of wind electricity projects in Iran is recommended.

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