A Report from the Castleton Polling Institute
Rich Clark, Director
5/21/2012
Prepared for
WCAX, WDEV, and Vermont Business Magazine
This report is based on data from 607interviews drawn from a random sample of registered voters in Vermont. Interviews were conducted by phone by from May 7 to May 16, 2012. For a sample of this size, the margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/-4 percent, although the margin of error is larger for questions involving subsamples of respondents. Although sampling error is only one source of potential survey error, precautions have been taken to minimize other sources of error for this poll.In a poll commissioned by WCAX, WDEV, and Vermont Business Magazine, Vermont voters were asked about candidate preferences and about a wide range of issue areas. The economy is seen by a plurality (36 percent) as the most important issue facing the state, followed by health care (27 percent)—although Vermonters’ attitudes about health care do not follow the national narrative. Forty-eight percent of Vermont voters favor the creation of a single-payer system, where health care is publicly financed, while 36 percent oppose a single-payer system. The same voters are just as likely to support as oppose paying for health care through payroll taxes. Health care resonates as an issue more with Democrats in Vermont than with Republicans: 61 percent of Democrats favor a single-payer system, and 50 percent favor the use of payroll taxes to pay for health care.
As the 2012 election campaigns begin to get underway, a clear majority of Vermonters express support for incumbents President Barack Obama and Governor Peter Shumlin over their likely Republican challengers. In the race for Attorney General of Vermont, both the incumbent Bill Sorrell and his primary challenger, TJ Donovan, have a lead over Republican Vince Illuzzi, and Sorrell has a lead over Donovan among those who say that they are likely to vote in the August 28 Democratic Primary.
Other Poll Results:
- An overwhelming majority of registered voters in Vermont (80 percent) express support for a law to ban the use of cell phones while driving. Older voters are more likely to support such a ban than are younger voters, although a majority of those 30 years of age and younger (64 percent) still support such a ban.
- The poll found a good deal of ambiguity about the merger of CVPS and Green Mountain Power, with a plurality (37 percent) favoring the merger, 29 percent opposed to the merger, and 34 percent not sure. There exists no such ambiguity about repaying rate payers for the 2001 rate increases; two-thirds (67 percent) believe that the money should be paid back to rate payers, while only 24 percent believe that the money should be invested in weatherization and energy efficiency efforts.
- Vermont voters are evenly split in their level of support for (45 percent) and opposition to (44 percent) the state taking action to shut down the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats and Independents to oppose trying to close down Vermont Yankee. Furthermore, 70 percent support building wind turbines along the state’s ridgelines, and 63 percent believe that the state should invest in the development of alternative energy.
- A large majority of Vermont voters (72 percent) favor legislation that would allow a terminally ill person to take prescribed drugs to end his or her life. Younger voters are somewhat more likely to support this legislation than are older voters, and liberals are much more likely than conservatives to support this legislation.
- When the poll asked voters whether immunizations should be required or if parents should have the right to opt out, a majority of Vermont voters (56 percent) stated a preference for making immunizations mandatory. Only 35 percent said that parents should have the right to opt out, although voters from households with incomes below $40,000 are evenly split on the issue.
- While only 35 percent of Vermont voters favor having the federal government underwrite the U.S. Postal Service in order to retain Saturday delivery, a majority (62 percent) support aiding the Postal Service in order to prevent local post offices from closing down.
- Governor Shumlin’s job approval is 42 percentage points above his disapproval, and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott’s approval is 53 percentage points higher than his disapproval rating. Overall, a majority of Vermonters approve of the performance of their state legislature.
For additional information, visit the Castleton Polling Institute online at or contact Dr. Rich Clark, Director of the Castleton Polling Institute, , or (802) 468-1306.