Thesis Proposal

Emergency Management:

An Analysis of a Coastal Community

An Object-Oriented Approach of a

GIS-based System for Winthrop’s

First Responders and Decision Makers

During a Flood Evacuation

Submitted by: Michele N. Karas

Concentration: MSIS/GIT

Thesis Advisor: Peng Xu, CM, MSIS

Co-Thesis Advisor:Yong Q. Tian, Ph.D. – Director, GIS Certificate Program/Asst. Prof. in GIS & Watershed Science, Department of Environmental, Earth and Ocean Science

Second Reader: Professor Welch, Director, CM Honors Program

Department Chair: Associate Professor Jean –Pierre Kuilboer, Ph. D.,

Chairman, Department of MSIS

Definition of Thesis Project:

Statement:

Since the tragic events of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, there has been a call for heightened security, and effective and efficient infrastructures that can link agencies in a time of emergency so they can communicate. Effective communications is the key to a plan, coordinate, and respond to emergencies. Information sharing and collaboration capabilities of situational awareness are two examples, which display effective communications, and are critical.

Through technology agencies are able to assist emergency management teams, first responders, and public, as well as, private entities to coordinate efforts. Being able to coordinate their efforts, these agencies are able to develop seamless mutually supporting facilities and lines of communication as if they were acting in unison. While emergency responders and local agencies, such as an Emergency Operations Center (EOC) are able to act in unity, they are able to effectively prevent, protect against, respond to and recover from a full range of hazards and threats, whether natural or man-made.

A strong infrastructure for lines of communications to be effective is essential to interoperability. “Interoperability is the ability for public safety officials to share information in a secure, real-time, digital environment. This concept encompasses the idea that public safety workers will have communications equipment that is functional and secure between first responders across departments [police, fire, harbormaster, public works, and EMS] and also between local, state and federal agencies.” (IACP Technology. 2007)

Issues within Winthrop’s Public Safety and Emergency Management facility exist. This may also be true with so many other municipalities both large and small. Issues are still being addressed for what happened when Hurricane Katrina struck Louisiana. The failure of communications hampered relief and rescue efforts in New Orleans. Communication lines were taken out by the wind from the hurricane, taking down phone and data lines. More than 3,000 phone lines were knocked out. (Neuman. 2006) Flooding added to the inability to effectively communicate. The water flooded areas so bad that technicians were not able to respond to fix the downed lines. New Orleans was not prepared for such a disaster let alone maintaining effective and open lines of communications. I quote, “Mayor C. Ray Nagin’s command center at the Hyatt Regency hotel lost all communications, forcing the mayor to transmit information to his emergency managers by walking to City Hall.” (Neuman. 2006) This way of communication was not of value moreover not safe due to the riots and weather conditions.

General Introduction and Background:

My research was set in motion based on Winthrop’s need for a flood evacuation route. Winthrop is a coastal community, a peninsula of 1.6 square miles and boasts some of the most spectacular views on the East Coast from its 7 miles of shoreline (Town of Winthrop. 2007). There are over 18,000 residents and comprises of mostly elderly and children. Winthrop only has two access routes into and out of town. Just this year, within Winthrop’s boundaries, there are over 14,000 motor vehicles that either drive upon or park on its public and private roadways. With just these few factors, issues of public safety arise especially in a time of an emergency, a coastal flood.

Coastal flooding happens whenever there are coastal storms. Especially at high-tide there is major flooding to areas of Winthrop that impede public safety getting to and from responses, as well as, transpiration routes cut off from motorists. If these traffic routes are needed, to evacuate residents flooding could obstruct many from obtaining safety.

Contribution:

Through my research, I hope to contribute to not only the practitioner’s world but also the scholarly world. Through the nominal research that I have conducted, I know there is a need to address the constraints that practitioners face: understandable user interfaces, data quantity, quality and integration; real-time data and information; and the importance of research areas based on the needs of disasters and emergency management. On the other hand, scholarly and academia diligently to open the door of research to: addressing interoperability; scale spatial analysis and uncertainty; and decision support systems.

My goal is to bridge the gap by way of information sharing with the use of GIS. It is through my academic research to qualitatively prove my hypothesis, that GIS-based systems and the application of GIS technology is a promising technology that can be utilized effectively and efficiently as a decision-making tool in the time of hazards – flood evacuations.

Methodology and Analysis:

Research Plan:

My research will encompass the overarching importance for communities, much like Winthrop, to address the need for a solid solution for communications through the sharing of data, especially in the decision-making process, through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS). Using object-oriented system development life cycle (SDLC) methodologies, I will conduct the analysis phase of the structured design, also known as the waterfall development. The analysis phase is the second phase of a four part phase when conducting a systems analysis for an information system solution. Through the analysis phase of the system development life cycle one can develop the importance of “how an information system can support business [organizational] needs.” (Dennis. 2005)

During the Analysis Phase, my research will show who will use, in what manner, where and when a GIS-based system will be beneficial to both first responders and decision makers of Winthrop.

Who will use the system? Practitioners, members of the Emergency Management Team and First Responders, Town Officials and Decision Makers

What system will be used? A GIS-based system

WhereWhen? In Winthrop at the time of a coastal flood

I will identify key stakeholders and conduct interviews as a requirements-gathering technique. Some research methods I plan to utilize may include, but is not limited to, surveys with emergency management personnel, mayors and first responders. I will also conduct document analysis of other communities’ as-is-systems. Some communities that share the same makeup as Winthrop are Nahant and Hull. Other documents I will analyze will come from Winthrop’s Emergency Management department.

The GIS-based technology needs to be one of reliability so managers will be able to analyze and virtually represent their findings to better the decision-making processes of a manager. The use of GIS, as basic the solution of sharing data, which is not currently being used by Winthrop’s public safety agencies, while addressing interoperability, assisting in the decision-making processes, ultimately devising an effective evacuation route, during a coastal flood.

During my literature review, I will cover some issues and constraints Winthrop and other local agencies can and have encountered, why GIS systems are slow to adopt, is there ease of use, and what are the reasons there is no or limited exchange of information for public safety officials in local governments agencies.

The ultimate goal for this research paper is to recommend a solution to Winthrop’s need for effective and efficient way to make decisions with the use of a GIS system. As a Director of Information Technology for Winthrop Massachusetts, as well as, the Command Center - Chief Information Operator for Winthrop’s EOC, I have had to redirect and incorporate disaster recovery, threats of terrorism, and heightened security measures into all my project plans.

Currently, I am working to build an EOC for Winthrop from the ground up. It is my hopes to incorporate my knowledge gained from my analytical research I will do over the next few months. Through my research paper, I hope to challenge other practitioners in my field to do the same for their communities, as well as, open a door to the academic world to show the value placed on GIS technology. If one life is saved, we have triumphed over misfortune.

Work Plan and Schedule:

Time Table:

December 2007:

  • Continue and refine article review process,
  • Send research proposal to Professor Peng Xu and ask if she can be my thesis advisor,
  • Literature review,
  • Construct research paper outline, and
  • Maintain journal of findings.

January 7 – 25, 2008:

  • Attend EEOS265 – Computer Applications in Geography course at UMASS – Boston; MWF [Lecture] and TuTh {Lab] from 6PM to 9PM for three weeks with Professor Helenmary M. Hotz. [Prerequisite for EEOS381]
  • Develop use of ESRI ArcMap; ArcCatalog; and ArcToolbox.

January & February 2008:

  • Data collection,
  • Review of Winthrop’s data,
  • Workshop with George Hart; construct a paragraph description of data needs for research,
  • Set up appointment with George Hart – Healey Library,
  • Set up appointment with Joan Gardner, Director of Research Facility – GIS/UMASS – Boston
  • Refine through statistics and applications of GIS course a more defined set of data that will be used, methods, and analysis,
  • Choose whom to survey,
  • Construct and Distribute survey [mid-January],
  • Collect and Analyze surveys [mid-February], and
  • Maintain journal of findings.

January 1 – May 14, 2008:

  • Attend EEOS261 – Statistics for Earth & Geographic Sciences course at UMASS – Boston; Tuesday [Lecture] from 2:30PM to 3:45 and Thursday [Lab] Time: TBA with Professor Mary E. Davis.
  • Attend EEOS381 - Applications of Geographic Information Systems at UMASS – Boston; Monday [Lab] and Wednesday [Lecture] from 6PM to 8:30PM with Professor Michael L. Trust.
  • Meet with Dr. Yong Tian, Advisor of GIS Certificate Program so he can be a co-advisor on my thesis research.

March 2008:

  • Analysis of technology findings,
  • Incorporate journal findings into research paper, and
  • Review and edit research paper.

April 2008:

  • Finalize Pre-Final Draft of research paper.

May 2008:

  • Present at 14th Annual Massachusetts Scholarly Undergraduate Conference; poster presentation,
  • Finalize Final Draft revision of research paper,
  • Circulate to director & professor for last comments.

Budget Plan:

To research my project, I will need the following supplies [funding was approved by Honors Program, December 2007]:

  • White Paper supplies, 8-1/2 x 11$ 25.00
  • Printer ink$ 60.00
  • Poster board$ 10.00
  • Folders$ 5.00

TOTAL:$100.00

Bibliography and Other Resources:

Literature Review

Introduction

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is a technology that is quickly being adopted across many practitioner fields. One field where GIS can be seen as a tool to help operational decision-making and strategy policy is with the field of Emergency Management. Through my literature review, I wanted to seek the following knowledge: Applications of GIS Technology; GIS as a promising, emerging technology – addressing issues, one such as, it is slow to adopt and why; and how local communities incorporate GIS Technology to increase effective and efficient decision-making and response times in the time of a natural hazards, coastal floods.

GIS Technology Overview

GIS technology is a very powerful tool for not only users but also managers, especially decision-makers. GIS technology allows users to capture, store, manipulate, form queries from, analyze, and most importantly, visualize data. (Gunes and Kovel. 2000) Enders and Brandt depict GIS as “a system for management, analysis, and display of geographic knowledge (ESRI. 2005) and can serve as an analytic tool that allows policymakers and program planners to associate resources and people spatially (Hall. 1992). GIS assists decision-making on critical issues such as community members needs to evacuate.” (Enders and Brandt. 2007)

GIS as an Emerging Technology for First Responders and Decision Makers

“Location is the single thread common to all data (National States Geographic Information Council [NSGIC]. 2006). It is the use of spatial data through GIS technology a decision-maker is able to plot out specific locations, analysis and visual represent their findings. One such method is the plotting of specific locations, such as evacuation ‘trigger points.’ Cova et al explain them in their research paper, where they used them in GIS for the setting wildfire evacuations. Cova et al define an evacuation trigger point as “an agreed-upon landmark whereby an evacuation is recommended if an advancing fire crosses this point.” (Cova et al. 2005) Using their definition of a trigger point, I have modified it for my research by replacing “an advancing fire” for “advancing flood water.”

It is this type of proposal through research that can be seen in the world of GIS Science and technology. Historically the federal and state agencies have been working with these types of trigger points to aid in disaster recovery. As such, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has used trigger points in their HURREVAC software system, which is used by official government emergency managers since 1988 to track hurricanes and assist in decision-making for their communities. FEMA classifies HURREVAC as:

HURREVAC stands for "HURRicane EVACuation" and is a restricted-use computer program funded by FEMA and USACE for government emergency managers to track hurricanes and assist in evacuation decision-making for their communities. This real-time data analysis tool allows state and local emergency management officials to make prudent and informed decisions based on information developed during the FEMA Hurricane Evacuation Studies process and real-time forecast data distributed by the National Weather Service (NWS) and the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC).

(FEMA. 2007)

Although HURREVAC has made its way into some local municipalities, like Winthrop, over the last decade, its main purpose is to track hurricanes and not coastal floods.

Practitioner vs. Researcher

In the practitioner’s world, many may have felt this idea of “disconnection” of agencies. In Winthrop particularly, I have been proposing GIS technology since 1999. Sharing of data and the ability to effectively and efficiently communicate the needed data across departments is critical to an organization like Winthrop. Decision-makers and managers need data from multiple databases or systems to get the large picture.

For example, on a small scale, less hazardous scenario, taken the Assessing Department holds the data on land-use and parcels on one type of system and data format, the Town Clerk’s holds the census data on a totally different software platform and in a total different format, and the manager has to make a decision on what population is over the age of 65 and owns their home. How can a manager be able to see let alone understand who is being affected in the scenario?

Now on a larger, more critical situation, imagine you are the Director of Emergency Management in Winthrop. You have just been advised of the onset of an expected coastal-storm, right in the midst of high tide. Knowing what you know from your past experiences, you know Winthrop will encounter flooding in may critical areas and roadways, ones that would impede public safety and the ability for residents to evacuate in a state of emergency.

It is in situations like these where GIS can take that data and incorporate to one system, ultimately giving the ability for the manager to analyze the data at hand, then visual display who and where the affected are. GIS systems give them ‘connection’ – interoperability rather than disconnection.

It is this overarching idea of disconnect is one the most important concepts that GIS technology can address, especially through academia research. Researchers have looked at many tragic events that have happened and have felt that GIS as a technology could have not only have helped with the recovery of these disasters but aided officials, practitioners, and decision-makers in the preparedness of the onset of these hazards.

One such researcher addressing the concept, what I have identified as, “disconnect.” is Susan L. Cutter. Cutter addresses the “constraints on the utilization of GI Science by the practitioner community: understandable user interfaces; data quantity, quality, and integration; real-time data and information. As well as, the importance of GI Science research areas based on the needs of disasters and emergency management research and practitioner communities.” (Cutter. 2003) Cutter’s research looks at natural hazards, as well as, the World Trade Center disaster on September 11, 2001 to derive her research findings for the importance of GIS for emergency managers and decision-makers.

Scientists view interoperability; scale, spatial analysis and uncertainty; and decision support systems as issues when it relates to the needs to have successful GIS technologies available. Practitioner’s views are different; they want to answers to questions, like:

“What data is needed to be collected and where and who has it?

Is there a ready-made model or software program I can plug my data into that will provide the answers to my questions and where do I get it?

Can my computer talk to yours?

What features need to be analyzed and at what locations?

There is a large “disconnect” between the languages used and needs of the research and the applications need by communities. (Cutter. 2003)

Radke et al states the “need for better integration of physical processes and social models to enhance the prediction of hazard impacts.” (Radke et al. 2000) Again it is this concept of “interoperability” that is described in Radke’s research. He questions, “What geographic information needs to be shared, what information needs to be acquired, what information exists in other agencies?” It is these types of questions that researchers need to keep as overarching indicators to prove why GIS technology is the solution for all decision-making processes.