Unit One Population

Textbook Sample

Unit 1

Population

Unit One Population

Part I Pre-reading Task

I. Group Discussion

How do you understand the term “overpopulation”?

To what extent do you think a country’s economic development is impacted by its population?

II. Pair Work

Work in pairs and discuss the problems brought about by the explosion of the world population.

Part II Text

Five Myths about the World’s Population

Nicholas Eberstadt

The world’s population hit 7 billion people this past week, according to United Nations estimates, launching another round of debates about “overpopulation,” the environment and whether more people means more poverty. As we mark this demographic milestone, let’s dispense with some of the most common misconceptions surrounding the number of humans on the planet.

1. The world is overpopulated.

Sure, 7 billion is a big number. But most serious demographers, economists and population specialists rarely use the term“overpopulation”—because there is no clear demographic definition.

For instance, is Haiti, with an annual population growth rate of 1.3 percent, overpopulated? If it is, then was the United States overpopulated in 1790, when the new country was growing at more than 3 percent per year? And if population density is the correct yardstick, then Monaco, with more than 16,000 people per square kilometer, has a far greater problem than, say, Bangladesh and its 1,000 people per square kilometer.

Back in the 1970s, some scholars tried to estimate the “optimum population” for particular countries, but most gave up. There were too many uncertainties (how much food would the world produce with future technologies?) and too many value judgments (how much parkland is ideal?).

Even considering resource scarcity isn’t all that helpful. During the 20th century’s population explosion — when we went from 1.6 billion people to more than 6 billion — real prices for rice, corn and wheat fell radically, and despite recent spikes, real prices for food are lower than 100 years ago. Prices, of course, are meant to reflect scarcity; by such reasoning, the world would be less overpopulated today than a century ago, not more.

2. Rapid population growth keeps poor countries poor.

In 1960, South Korea and Taiwan were poor countries with fast-growing populations. Over the two decades that followed, South Korea’s population surged by about 50 percent and Taiwan’s by about 65 percent. Yet, income increased in both places, too. Between 1960 and 1980, per capita economic growth averaged 6.2 percent in South Korea and 7 percent in Taiwan.

Clearly, rapid population growth did not preclude an economic boom in those two Asian “tigers” — and their experience underscores that of the world as a whole. Between 1900 and 2000, as the planet’s population was exploding, per capita income grew faster than ever before, rising nearly fivefold, by the reckoning of economic historian Angus Maddison. And for much of the last century, the countries with faster economic growth tended to be the ones where population was growing most rapidly, too.

Today, the fastest population growth is found in so-called failed states, where poverty is worst. But it’s not clear that population growth is their central problem: With physical security, better policies and greater investments in health and education, there is no reason that fragile states could not enjoy sustained improvements in income.

3. For all its ethical problems, China’s one-child policy boosts its economy.

China’s economic boom has coincided with the promulgation of its one-child policy, which has used state muscle in an effort to limit births. Both this restrictive policy and the Chinese tilt toward pro-market reforms began in the late 1970s, and since then China’s per capita income has risen more than eightfold. But that doesn’t mean the two are linked.

Just before the one-child policy was enacted, China’s total fertility rate (births per woman per lifetime) was about 2.7; today it is believed to be around 1.6, or roughly 40 percent lower. But between the late 1960s and the late 1970s, China’s total fertility rate fell from about 5.9 to 2.9 births per woman per lifetime — a sharper drop. Yet China’s per capita economic growth was much slower back in the decade of 1968-78.

China’s fertility trajectory in the one-child era does not look strikingly different from those of many other East Asian and Southeast Asian societies. Much poorer countries, such as Burma, have very low fertility rates nowadays, even without state birth restrictions. Thus the demographic impact of China’s policy remains uncertain. But some Chinese demographers suggest that it is responsible for much of the surplus of baby boys in China in the past generation; if so, a growing army of essentially unmarriageable young men is hardly auspicious for social stability or economic progress.

4. If your population declines, your economy does, too.

Between the 1840s and 1960s, Ireland’s population collapsed, spiraling downward from 8.3 million to 2.9 million. Over roughly that same period, however, Ireland’s per capita gross domestic product tripled.

More recently, Bulgaria and Estonia have both suffered sharp population contractions of close to 20 percent since the end of the Cold War, yet both have enjoyed sustained surges in wealth: Between 1990 and 2010 alone, Bulgaria’s per capita income (taking into account the purchasing power of the population)soared by more than 50 percent, and Estonia’s by more than 60 percent. In fact, virtually all of the former Soviet bloc countries are experiencing depopulation today, yet economic growth has been robust in this region, the global downturn notwithstanding.

A nation’s income depends on more than its population size or its rate of population growth. National wealth also reflects productivity, which in turn depends on technological prowess, education, health, the business and regulatory climate, and economic policies. A society in demographic decline, to be sure, can veer into economic decline, but that outcome is hardly preordained.

5. The world will have 10 billion people by 2100.

No one can know how many people will be alive in 2100 because demographers have no techniques for accurately projecting our long-term population. The United Nations did predict a population of 10.1 billionin 2100 earlier this year — but that was just its “medium variant” projection; it also put out a “high variant” projection (exceeding 15 billion) and a “low variant” (6.2 billion, lower than the world’s population today).

Further complicating matters, we are seeing unprecedented declines in birth rates in some low-income countries. In just two decades, for example, total fertility in Oman is estimated to have fallen by 5.4 births per woman, from 7.9 in the late 1980s to 2.5 in recent years. And just a few years ago, the United Nations’ “medium projection variant” for Yemen in 2050 exceeded 100 million — now it is down to 62 million.

It would probably take a catastrophe of biblical proportions to prevent global population growth over the next several decades. But we do not know with confidence just how big the world’s population will be in 2030, much less 70 years after that.

(1100 words)

New Words

auspicious /ɔ:'spiʃəs/ / adj.(formal) showing sins that sth is likely to be successful in the future 吉利的；吉祥的； promising
biblical /'biblikəl/ / adj. connected with the Bible; in the Bible 有关《圣经》的；《圣经》中的
coincide /,kəuin'said/ / v.～with 1. (of two or more events) to take place at the same time （两件或更多的事情）同时发生
2. (of ideas, opinions, etc.) to be the same or very similar 相同；相符；极为类似
fertility /fə'tiliti:/ / n.the state of being fertile 富饶；丰产；能生育性；可繁殖性；想象力丰富
fragile /'frædʒail / / adj. weak and uncertain; easily destroyed or spoilt 不牢固的；脆弱的
notwithstanding
/,nɔtwiθ'stændiŋ/ / prep.(formal) (also used following th noun it refers to) without being affected by sth; in spite of sth （亦用于其所指名词之后）虽然；尽管
optimum /'ɔptiməm/ / adj.the best possible; producing the best possible results 最佳的；最适宜的
preclude /pri'klu:d/ / v. (formal) to prevent sth from happening or sb from doing sth; to make sth impossible 使行不通； 阻止； 妨碍； 排除
～sth/～sb from doing sth
preordained
/,pri:ɔ:'deind/ / adj. (formal) already decided or planned by God or by fate 命中注定的；上天安排的 predestined; ～ to do sth
promulgation
/,prɔməl'ɡeiʃən/ / n. Noun form of promulgate
v. to announce a new law or system officially or publicly 宣布；颁布；发布（新法律或法制）
prowess /'prauis/ / n. (formal) great skill at doing sth 非凡的技能；高超的技艺；造诣
radically /'rædikəli/ / adv.radical
adj. concerning the most basic and important parts of sth; thorough and complete 根本的； 彻底的； 完全的
reckoning /'rekəniŋ/ / n. the act of calculating sth, especially in a way that is not very exact 估计；估算；计算
robust /rəu'bʌst/ / adj. (of a system or an organization) strong and not likely to fail or become weak （体制或机构）强劲的；富有活力的
scarcity /'skεəsəti/ / n.If there is a scarcity of sth, there is not enough of it and it is difficult to obtain it 缺乏； 不足；稀少 shortage
adj.scarce
soar /sɔ:/ / v.if the value, amount or level of sth soars, it rises very quickly 急升；猛增
spiral /'spaiərəl/ / v. to move in continuous circles, going upwards or downwards 螺旋式上升（或下降）；盘旋上升（或下降）
surge /sə:dʒ/ / v. (of prices, profits, etc) to suddenly increase in value （物价、利润等）急剧上升；飞涨；激增
n. a sudden increase in the amount or number of sth; a large amount of sth (数量的)急剧上升；激增；大量；一大批 ～(in/of sth)
tilt /tilt/ / n. an attempt to win sth or defeat sb (意欲赢得某物或战胜某人的)企图；尝试 have a ～at sth
trajectory /'trædʒiktəri/ / n.(technical) the curved path of sth that has been fired, hit or thrown into the air （射体在空中的）轨道，弹道，轨迹，流轨
unprecedented
/,ʌn'presidəntid/ / adj. that has never happened, been done or been known before 前所未有的；空前的；没有先例的
variant/'vεəriənt/ / n. a thing that is a slightly different form or type of sth else 变种；变体；变形 ～ (of/on sth)
veer /viə/ / v. (of a conversation or way of behaving or thinking) to change in the way it develops (说话、行为或思想)偏离；改变；转变
yardstick /'jɑ:dstik/ / n. a standard used for judging how good or successful sth is （好坏或成败的）衡量标准；准绳

Phrases and Expressions

much less / and certainly not 更不用说；更何况 even/still less
dispense with / to get ride of sth or stop using it because you no longer need it 摒弃；省掉；不用
per capita / for each person 没人的；人均的
For all / in spite of 尽管；虽然
spiral downward / to decrease rapidly急剧减少

Notes:

1. About the author

Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist and a demographer by training, is also a senior adviser to the National Board of Asian Research, a member of the visiting committee at the Harvard School of Public Health, and a member of the Global Leadership Council at the World Economic Forum. He researches and writes extensively on economic development, foreign aid, global health, demographics, and poverty. He is the author of numerous monographs and articles on North and South Korea, East Asia, and countries of the former Soviet Union. His books range from The End of North Korea (AEI Press, 1999) to The Poverty of the Poverty Rate (AEI Press, 2008).

2. Haiti

Haiti is the the most populous full member-state of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-bloc and also the poorest country in the Americas as per the Human Development Index.

3. Monaco

Monaco, officially the Principality of Monaco, is a sovereign city state on the French Riviera. Its area is 1.98km2 (0.76sqmi), with a population of 35,986, making Monaco the second smallest and the most densely populated country in the world, as of 2012.The state has no income tax and low business taxes, and is well-known for being a tax haven. Monaco boasts the world's highest GDP nominal per capita at $172,676, and GDP PPP per capita at $186,175. Monaco also has the world's highest life expectancy at almost 90 years, and the lowest unemployment rate at 0%,with over 40,000 workers who commute from France and Italy each day. For the third year in a row, Monaco in 2011 had the world's most expensive real estate market, at $56,300 a square meter. According to the CIA World Factbook, Monaco has the world's lowest poverty rate, and the highest millionaires and billionaires per capita in the world.

4. Bangladesh

Bangladesh, officially the People's Republic of Bangladesh, is a sovereign state located in South Asia. The capital (and largest city) is Dhaka, which is the hub of all cultural, political and religious affairs. It is the ninth most populous country and among the most densely populated countries in the world. A high poverty rate prevails, although the United Nations has acclaimed Bangladesh for achieving tremendous progress in human development.The country is listed among the Next Eleven economies.

5. Angus Maddison

Angus Maddison (6 December 1926 – 24 April 2010) was a British economist and a world scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, including the measurement and analysis of economic growth and development. He was Emeritus Professor at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Groningen (RUG).

6. Burma

Burma, officially the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, is a country in South Asia and Southeast Asia. At 676,578km2 (261,227 sq mi), it is the 40th largest country in the world and the second largest country in Southeast Asia. Burma is also the 24th most populous country in the world with over 58.8million people. It is a resource rich country. However, since the reformations of 1962, the Burmese economy has become one of the least developed in the world.

7. Ireland

Ireland is an island to the northwest of continental Europe. It is the third-largest island in Europe and the twentieth-largest island on Earth. To its east is the larger island of Great Britain, from which it is separated by the Irish Sea.Politically, the island is divided between the Republic of Ireland, which covers just under five-sixths of the island, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom, which covers the remainder and is located in the northeast of the island. The population of Ireland is approximately 6.4million. Just under 4.6million live in the Republic of Ireland and just under 1.8million live in Northern Ireland.

8.Bulgaria

Bulgaria, officially the Republic of Bulgaria, is a parliamentary republic in Southeast Europe. It borders Romania to the north, Serbia and Macedonia to the west, Greece and Turkey to the south, as well as the Black Sea to the east. Bulgaria is a very mountainous country due to its location in the Balkan Peninsula. With a territory of 110,994 square kilometres (42,855 sqmi), Bulgaria ranks as the 14th-largest country in Europe.

9.Estonia

Estonia, officially the Republic of Estonia, is a state in the Baltic region of Northern Europe. With a population of 1.34million, it is one of the least-populous members of the European Union, Eurozone and NATO. Estonia has the highest GDP per person among former Soviet republics. Estonia is listed as a "High-Income Economy" by the World Bank, as an "advanced economy" by the International Monetary Fund and the country is an OECD member. The United Nations lists Estonia as a developed country with a Human Development Index of "Very High". The country is also ranked highly for press freedom, economic freedom, democracy and political freedom and education.

10. Soviet bloc

The communistnations closely allied with the Soviet Union, including Bulgaria, Cuba, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and Romania, whose foreign policies depended on those of the former Soviet Union. It did not include communist nations with independent foreign policies, such as China, Yugoslavia, and Albania. The Soviet Union used its military force several times in the Soviet Bloc to ensure that the countries' governments followed Soviet preferences: in East Germany in 1953, in Hungary and Poland in 1956, and in Czechoslovakia in 1968, for example.

11Oman

Oman, officially called the Sultanate of Oman, is an Arab state in southwest Asia on the southeast coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It is an absolute monarchy in which the Sultan of Oman exercises ultimate authority but its parliament has some legislative and oversight powers. In November2010, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) listed Oman, from among 135 countries worldwide, as the nation most-improved during the preceding 40years. According to international indices, Oman is one of the most developed and stable countries in the Arab World.

12. Yemen

The Republic of Yemen, commonly known as Yemen, is a country located in the Middle East, occupying the southwestern to southern end of the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen has a land area of 555,000 square kilometers and a population of approximately 24 million (2010). Its capital and largest city is Sana'a. Yemen's territory includes over 200 islands, the largest of which is Socotra, about 415km to the south of mainland Yemen, off the coast of Somalia. It is the only state in the Arabian Peninsula to have a purely republican form of government.

Part III Pre-class Work

1. Reading Comprehension

1) According to the author, the fact that the number of people around the world arrived 7 billion this past week brings forward another round of debates about the following issues except _____.

A. whether more people means more poverty

B. whether policies should be carried out to limit the growing number of people

C. whether the world is overpopulated

D. environment

2) Why most serious demographers, economists and population specialists rarely use the term“overpopulation”?

A. because they don’t think 7 billion is a big number

B. because there is no clear demographic definition

C. because there were too many uncertainties

D. because there were too many value judgments

3) From the author’s point of view, which one is not the contributing subject when some scholars gave up estimating the “optimum population” for particular countries?

A. the amount of food produced with future technologies

B. the ideal parkland area

C. resource scarcity

D. per capita energy consumption

4) The author claims fragile states could enjoy sustained improvements in income with the followings except_____.

A. greater investments in health and education

B. better policies

C. more population

D. physical security

5) China’s one-child policy_____

A. directly contributed to China’s economic boom in the late 1970s.

B. has a favorable demographic impact.

C. indeed helps lower China’s total fertility rate.

D. has nothing to do with much of the surplus of baby boys in China in the past generation.

6) The author uses Ireland, Bulgaria and Estonia as examples to argue that_____.

A. the contraction of population will lead to economic downturns.

B. the contraction of population may not lead to economic downturns.

C. the contraction of population will lead to economic surges.