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On Thin Ice: U.S. Capability Lacking in the Race for the Arctic

By gCaptain Staff On August 8, 2012

Vladimir Tikhonov, via: Sovcomflot

By Ensign Joseph P. Walter, US Navy

For years now there has been talk about how the Arctic is heating up—both in the physical sense and in terms of human interest. The northern latitudes are warming twice as fast as the rest of the world and the polar ice cap is 25% smaller today than it was in 1978.

The summer of 2007 saw record low sea ice coverage, with the summer of 2011 deemed a statistical tie. For the first time in recorded history, both the Northwest Passage (NWP) and Northern Sea Route (NSR) were simultaneously ice-free in the summer of 2007.

Sending ships over the top of the Asian or North American continents reduces the transit time between European and East Asian markets by about half; and while this route is only accessible during the warmest months of the year, scientists expect that will change in the not-too-distant future. According to some climate models, if the current rate of warming continues the Arctic may be completely ice-free year-round as early as 2030—meaning that ships might one day be able to pass directly over the North Pole.

The U.S. Navy has been a big part of the discourse on the future of American involvement in the Arctic, and its meteorological agencies contribute the lion’s share of climate data for the Department of Defense (DoD). After the Coast Guard, the Navy will be the service called on first to protect U.S interests in the northernmost latitudes. And so it should be: U.S. Arctic interests are predominately maritime missions, ranging from strategic deterrence, to “showing the flag,” to ensuring freedom of navigation and protecting trade routes, to rendering humanitarian assistance. As humanity’s footprint above the Arctic Circle grows, so must the Navy’s. With limited assets and resources in comparison to the Navy, the Coast Guard will increasingly find itself calling on the Navy for support and one day may be forced to transfer some of its responsibilities to the Navy. It’s high time to move beyond circulating rhetoric and lay the foundation for a U.S. presence in the Arctic characterized by capability, presence, and cooperation with other Arctic nations.

Climate Change, New Shipping Routes, and Natural Resources

Climate change is real. Scientific data indicates that the earth’s temperature is rising, and particularly fast in the Arctic. The causes of such warming—whether anthropogenic or part of the planet’s natural cycle—are beyond the scope of this paper. The short-term consequences of global warming are already apparent in the Arctic: higher average temperatures and a greater amount of sea ice and permafrost melting. Average temperature year-round is 1.8°F warmer now than it was from 1961 – 1990. Winter temperatures are about 9°F higher today than during that same period.

The ocean is storing most of the heat and sea ice continues to melt in ever-greater amounts. The ice is melting in both coverage and thickness, with a greater proportion of the ice freezing every winter being first-year ice.

viaUS News

Shipping traffic is rising in response to receding Arctic sea ice, which in recent years has pulled back to open up the NSR and NWP for an entire four months before freezing over.

In August 2011, the Suezmax tanker Vladimir Tikhonov broke the record for the largest vessel to transit the NSR. At over 160,000 dwt, Vladimir Tikhonov is over one and a half times as large as a Nimitz-class carrier in terms of tonnage. The transit from Murmansk through the Bering Strait shaved seven days off the port-to-port time via the normal route through the Suez Canal and US$400,000 in fuel costs.

Given the drastic rise in shipping traffic between 2007 and 2011—with an especially large spike from 2010 to 2011—maritime activity in the region will continue to increase well into the 21st Century. Shipping companies, like Russia’s SovComFlot (SCF), are already making greater use of the shorter northern sea lanes. They are even developing new classes of ice-capable merchant vessels that can make the passage at any time of year, without the need for icebreaker escort.

There are sizeable concentrations of both organic and inorganic natural resources in the largely unexploited north. A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report estimated that some 1,550 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 90 billion barrels of crude oil lie trapped underneath the Arctic seabed and permafrost.

These quantities represent approximately 30 and 13 percent of the world’s untapped natural gas and oil reserves, respectively. The USGS expects that 84 percent of these reserves are located offshore and in less than 500 meters of water, meaning that they fall squarely within the jurisdiction of one of the five coastal Arctic nations (A5).

In a world dependent on hydrocarbon fuels for the continuation of day-to-day affairs, demand for oil and natural gas is expected to remain high for at least the next quarter century.

The 30 million square kilometers of territory above the Arctic Circle—one sixth of the Earth’s total land mass—is known to contain significant quantities of mineral deposits, including rare metals and precious gems.

These vast deposits are increasingly accessible due to climate change, and mining companies will surely move in to secure the rights to these resources as soon as it is feasible to do so.

Arctic fisheries are among the most well-stocked in the world—a consequence of their general inaccessibility for much of human history. One third of the total Russian and U.S. annual catch comes from the Bering Sea, and the fishing industry is Norway’s largest source of national income after offshore oil and natural gas.

Before extraction of any resources can begin, property rights must first be obtained by whichever government(s) lays claim to the area. Extended continental shelf (ECS) claims and territorial disputes fall under the guidance established in the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which the U.S. has signed but not ratified. Since it is not a member of the treaty, the U.S. cannot submit an ECS claim under Article 76 of the convention, as other Arctic states are doing.

Russia has already filed a meticulous ECS claim to the Lomonosov Ridge to the International Court of Justice for consideration. Without a doubt, Russia’s economic interest in securing access to Arctic oil and gas fields is their primary motivation for jumping out in front of the pack to lay claim to hydrocarbon deposits which they consider strategic and vital to their national security.

Geopolitical Considerations Implications of Climate Change in the Arctic

The Arctic remains a subject of great importance in international relations and will continue to command more attention from governments as the century progresses. Rear Admiral David Titley, director of the U.S. Navy’s Task Force Climate Change, suggested the geopolitical implications of a warming Arctic when he observed that “we are confronted by a new ocean for the first time in 500 years.”

Access to energy and trade are the underlying factors drawing the international community’s attention northward, and as corporations pay greater and greater attention to the Arctic, governments will likewise sharpen their focus on the happenings in one of the most remote parts of the planet. Diminished sea ice coverage makes the exploration and exploitation of natural resources now possible in thawing Arctic regions, creating a new imperative for governments to assert claims to the continental shelf extending underneath the polar ice cap. Each of the A5 nations is granted an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that extends 200 nautical miles from the coastline. But according to international law, if a country can prove that the seabed is a natural extension of the continental shelf, it may exercise exclusive economic rights over the seafloor extending well beyond 200 miles. Russia and Canada both claim the Lomonosov Ridge—widely believed to harbor large amounts of hydrocarbon deposits—is a natural extension of the Asian and North American continents, respectively. The Russian claim would extend its EEZ for an additional 600 nautical miles—nearly reaching the North Pole. Likewise, the Canadian claim on the ridge extends almost to the North Pole, albeit not as far as the Russian claim by virtue of the extension of the Canadian northern archipelago. While the four remaining A5 states have generally balked at the Russian claim, there is no guarantee that factions will arise for the purpose of stymieing particular nations’ claims. On the contrary, Arctic states will likely partner with anyone with shared goals of maximizing their territory to be acquired in ECS claims. Canada, for instance, has an interest in seeing Russia’s claim to the Lomonosov Ridge approved because it would provide a precedent to justify Canada’s own claims to that ridge.

Navigation regimes through strategic waterways in the Arctic are another area where A5 nations occasionally butt heads. Canada claims the NWP as internal waters, granting it special jurisdiction over the strait, while the U.S. asserts that the passageway is an international strait through which maritime traffic may pass at any time. Disputes over Hans Island, situated in the middle of the Nares Strait between Greenland and the Canadian northern archipelago, have resulted in both nations engaging in “flag-planting” missions in greater frequency. The vast wealth in natural resources locked away in the Arctic raises the stakes of otherwise mundane assertions of national sovereignty.

Fortunately, competition in the Arctic has encouraged cooperation among Arctic nations and conflict between the A5 nations is unlikely. Canada, Denmark, Norway, and the United States are NATO allies, and Russia no longer expects to fight a war against NATO. This is a marked change from how the Arctic was viewed through strategic lenses during the Cold War. All of the Arctic nations are committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes and the Arctic Council and UNCLOS provide the mechanisms by which differences can be settled through diplomacy.

Since its inauguration, the Arctic Council has hosted meetings of the eight Arctic nations—Canada, Denmark (and Greenland) Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russian Federation, and the United States—every two years for the purpose of working toward agreements on common issues.

There are no international treaties or conventions declaring the Arctic to be a demilitarized zone, unlike Antarctica, and there is little reason to think that Arctic nations would agree to such a pact in the future. Both Russia and the U.S. have an extensive history of operating in the Arctic Ocean going back to the end of World War II, and the region still plays an essential role in the nuclear deterrence strategies of both countries. The vigor with which the A5 have pursued their economic interests in the Arctic suggests that it is plausible these countries would be willing to use military force to defend their economic and military interests if threatened by neighboring states or outside actors.

Some commentators note state’s growing interest in the Arctic and are apprehensive of a “militarization” of the Arctic. This concern is premised on a flawed understanding of the past and present military capabilities of Arctic nations. The navies of all the five coastal Arctic nations operate frequently above the Arctic Circle, carrying out missions ranging from ballistic missile submarine patrols to freedom of navigation and sovereignty assertion. The entire Russian North Fleet is home-based within the Arctic Circle, in Murmansk, and the United States currently operates the most northerly military base of any nation in Thule, Greenland. Instead of focusing on re- or de-militarizing the Arctic, policy-makers should direct their efforts toward avoiding the creation of a security dynamic which has a net-destabilizing effect, thereby contributing to military insecurity on a greater level. This task should not be difficult to accomplish, given the high degree of cooperation among Arctic nations and the low likelihood of any tensions between them escalating into war.

Geopolitics will demand that the U.S. Navy operate more heavily in the Arctic in coming years. There is credibility to the assumption that interstate conflict is extremely unlikely among Arctic nations due to their stated intentions to peacefully resolve disputes and their history of acting accordingly.

Therefore, a reasonable prediction is that an increasing U.S. naval presence in the Arctic will be predominantly comprised of “showing the flag” (power projection), search-and-rescue (SAR), ensuring freedom of navigation and protecting trade routes (maritime security), and providing humanitarian assistance to local indigenous populations.

Threat Outlook for the Arctic

The U.S. Navy predicts that the Arctic will remain a low-threat environment through 2040.

The likelihood of any conventional threats arising to jeopardize U.S. interests is accurately assessed to be low, especially given the strong relations between the A5. But Arctic nations aren’t the only countries thinking about the future of the region. Several nations—notably South Korea, Japan, and China—recognize the value of the region to their economic interests in terms of faster commercial shipping routes to Europe and energy and mineral deposits to feed their growing economies. A Chinese shipping company has already paired with Russia-based Yamal Shipbuilders to produce a class of ice-capable cargo vessels to carry mineral ores and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from facilities in Siberia to Chinese ports.

Deals like this raise eyebrows among Arctic states, who, as much as they value cooperation amongst themselves, see the Arctic as a domain for their exclusive patronage. Any attempt by Non-arctic States, such as China, to wedge themselves into Arctic affairs will likely be ill-received and Arctic states may respond with measures that consolidate their authority in regional matters.

The 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review identified climate change as an “accelerant of instability or conflict.”

While conventional security threats are low in the Arctic, there are myriad non-conventional security concerns in the region that will be affected by climate change. Non-conventional security issues that Arctic nations may have to face in the future include violent political demonstrations, environmental terrorism, humanitarian assistance, and mass rescue/casualties.

The primary law enforcement concern with regard to security is dealing with political demonstrations on public and private property. Not everyone is excited by the prospect of increased development and infrastructure in the northernmost portion of Alaska. The indigenous population is particularly incensed about the growing footprint of major oil corporations operating both off and onshore the northern coastline of the state. Additionally, environmental activists have protested past construction projects in the Arctic. Local law enforcement lacks the manpower and resources to respond to a large demonstration in the remote areas that are host to oil exploitation. The Coast Guard conducted a major training exercise in 2011 titled “Operation Arctic Shield” that was specifically intended to identify ways to best tailor a USCG response to increased maritime traffic resulting from oil exploration operations and the influx of environmental activists expected to travel to Alaska to protest Royal Dutch Shell’s endeavors. In anticipation of Royal Dutch Shell’s plan to drill exploratory wells in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas this summer, the Coast Guard is gearing up for another “Arctic Shield” exercise.

There is also the concern that environmental activism may escalate from peaceful demonstration to acts of terrorism and sabotage. As human activity increases in the Arctic, the risk of acts of eco-terrorism directed at major development projects also rises.

Environmental activism groups, such as Earth Liberation Front (ELF), are likely to step up their activity in the Arctic to match stride with energy and mineral corporations searching for natural resources in the far north. These groups are known to venture far into some of the world’s sparsest territory to disrupt development projects and infrastructure which they consider to be damaging the pristine wilderness.

Adventure tourism to the Arctic has exploded in popularity in the last five years, with over 50,000 tourists traveling on some 2,000 cruise ships visiting Greenland in 2008 alone.

An instance of a cruise ship sinking or becoming stranded in the Arctic would place hundreds of tourists at risk in an inhospitable environment and could potentially result in the deaths of a very large number of passengers. The lack of infrastructure combined with the tendency of these cruise liners to take their passengers to remote, exotic locations both raises the probability of such an accident and the danger that their rescue not take place in a timely manner.