The Middle East Conflict
A. Balances of Power
1. Arab—Arab
a. Pan-Arabism (Nasser) versus statist Arab nationalism (King Hussein)
2. Arab-Israeli
a. Palestinian nationalism versus Jewish Nationalism (Zionism)
3. Arab-Iranian
a. Arab versus Persian nationalism, exacerbated by religious conflicts between Shi’a and Sunni Islam
B. Cold-War
1. bi-polar global power structure
2. U.S./Soviet rivalries and military support for oppositional groups incited and restrained conflict among these groups at various historical junctures.
C. Historical Roots: End of the Ottoman Empire
1. Nationalism began to emerge in the Ottoman Empire in the late 19th century; when the Empire was destroyed by WWI, nationalist ambitions collided with imperial designs
2. After the war, the Middle East was divided into mandated territories (a transitional stage between imperial control and self-government) controlled by Britain and France; national aspirations were only partially satisfied and sometimes violently suppressed
3. The Balfour Declaration of 1917 stated that Britain supported the establishment of a Jewish national home in Palestine; however, this appeared to conflict with British promises of Arab independence in return for Arab support against the Ottomans
D. Emergence of Arab-Israeli Conflict
1. By the end of WWII, several Arab states had become independent
2. Pressure for Jewish emigration (at the time illegal) to Palestine increased after the Holocaust, this led to increased Arab-Jewish conflict in the territory
3. The UN devised a plan for the partition of Palestine into separate Arab and Jewish states; the Jews accepted the plan, but Arab Palestinians and Arab states did not
4. As a result, when Britain withdrew from the territory and Israel declared its independence in 1948, an Arab-Israeli war broke out; Israeli forces fought off Arab armies, and Israeli, Egyptian, and Jordanian forces took over territory that had been allocated to an Arab state of Palestine under the UN plan
5. After the war, authoritarian nationalist regimes came to power in Egypt and Syria; these regimes sought and received economic and military aid form the USSR
E. Conflicts of the 1950s and 1960s
1. Suez Crisis
a. Egyptian President Nasser, angered by America’s refusal to finance construction of the Aswan Dam, nationalized the Suez Canal (which had been controlled by an Anglo-French company) in 1956
b. In response, Britain and France, and Israel devised a secret plan to attack Egypt; the plan succeeded militarily, but failed politically when the U.S. forced Britain and France to back down; Nasser remained in power, and the USSR’s reputation as a friend of the Arabs increased
2. Nasser
a. Nasser’s ideology of Pan-Arabism gained great strength in Arab countries in the 1950s and 1960s; Syria and Egypt were briefly united in a single republic, and Pan-Arabist forces put pressure on many ruling Arab regimes
b. Egypt; supported the losing side in a civil war in North Yemen, frightening conservative Arab monarchies
3. Increased Hostility
a. Hostility between Israel and its Arab neighbors increased, as a radical regime in Syria supported military and terrorist attacks against Israel
b. The Palestinian refugee problem remained unsolved
F. Six-Day War (1967) and Its Aftermath
1. An Israeli-Egyptian crisis in 1967 led Israel to believe its Arab neighbors were preparing a unified attack; all of this started with a false USSR intelligence report to Egypt that Israeli forces were mobilizing at the Syrian border
Israel launched a preemptive strike in June 1967 and routed (completely defeated and drove away) Egyptian, Jordanian, and Syrian forces in only 6 days
2. The war resulted in Israeli control of Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Golan Heights, and Gaza, but Arab states demanded the return of these occupied territories
3. The superpowers tried to achieve a negotiated settlement, but their positions tended to support their allies fairly closely (Israel for the United States, Arab states for the USSR);
4. UN Resolution 242, though deliberately ambiguous, called for an exchange of “land for peace”—requiring to move from a ceasefire agreement to a peace treaty agreement, ultimately recognizing the state of Israel as a legitimate state
5. The Arab-Israeli conflict continued, and Israel and Egypt fought a War of Attrition (Zermuerbungskrieg) in 1969-70; Arabs resented Israeli occupation of the West Bank and other territories
6. The 1967 war also led to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to become an independent Arab force under Yasser Arafat. The PLO established its headquarters in Jordan
G. Petroleum, Power, and Politics
1. In the 1950s and 1960s, the North’s dependence on Arab oil steadily increased; this lead many Arabs to believe that the “oil weapon” could be wielded to pressure Europe and the United States to restrain Israel and adopt more pro-Arab policies
2. In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel by surprise in an attempt to recapture the territories lost in 1967; the plan failed, but a concurrent Arab oil embargo dealt a great economic shock to the United States, Europe, and Japan
H. Land for Peace
1. Instability increased in many Middle Eastern states in 1970s; a civil war broke out in Lebanon in 1975—between Muslims and Christians; the PLO was also involved
2. Persistent diplomatic efforts by the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations brought Israel and Egypt closer to the negotiating table
3. In 1977, Egyptian President Sadat astounded the world by visiting Jerusalem and calling for Arab-Israeli peace—against the advise of the Syrian President (Egypt’s ally)
4. Israel and Egypt signed the U.S.-brokered Camp David Accords, which outlined a framework for a peace settlement in 1978 and concluded a peace treaty in 1979. Egypt was expelled from the Arab League and denied economic aid for concluding the treaty; it was the first Arab state formerly recognizing the Israeli state
I. Conflicts of the 1980s
1. The Shah of Iran was overthrown by a radical Islamic revolution in 1979; this worried many Gulf Arab monarchies and dealt a severe blow to U.S. influence in the Gulf
2. Iraq invaded Iran in 1980; despite covert support from both superpowers, Iraq failed to capture the territory it claimed, and the war dragged on until ending in stalemate in 1988
3. Israel invaded Lebanon in order to destroy PLO bases there in 1982; the invasion became “Israel’s Vietnam,” and after Israeli forces were withdrawn Syria consolidated its dominance over most of Lebanon
J. New World Order, Old Regional Conflicts
1. Three trends in the late 1980s and 1990s had a major impact on the balances of power in the Middle East
a. the decline and demise of the USSR deprived many Arab states of a major source of economic and military aid
b. the intifada, the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories, strained relations between the U.S. and Israel; it increased the economic and political cost to Israel of controlling the territories
c. Iraq became a major military power in the region, unchecked by a weakened Iran
2. Conflict resulted in the Persian Gulf War
a. Experiencing serious economic problems after the war with Iran and possessing a huge military machine (including a program to develop nuclear weapons), Iraq invaded and quickly overran Kuwait in 1990
b. The first attempt by one Arab state to conquer another shocked the world; the United States formed an international coalition under U.S. auspices to pressure Iraq to withdraw its forces
c. When Iraq failed to withdraw, the U.S.-led coalition launched an offensive in 1991 that quickly evicted Iraqi forces for Kuwait and severely damaged Iraq’s military capability
3. The New Regional Order continues to be fragile
a. the end of the Cold War and Israeli-Palestinian agreement sin 1993-94 bode well for peace. Lately the peace process has come to a halt
b. repeatedly, the Middle East peace process between Israel and the Palestinians have been hostage to terrorism by both Arabs and Jews. In recent years, suicide bombings by the Islamic Resistance Movement (also known as the Hamas) against Israeli civilians triggered Israeli reprisals and gave Israel’s former hawkish Likud-dominated government under Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu plausible reasons not to stick to the 1993 Israeli-Palestinian Declaration of Principles reached between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Chairman Yasser Arafat
c. many Arab regimes remain unstable, and economic disparities and Islamic radicalism threaten to generate new conflicts
d. Rise in Terrorist activity globally, especially Western Europe and the United States
1. growing accessibility of weapons and explosives
2. revolution in global travel and communication facilitating movement across frontiers
3. state support for terrorist groups
4. propensity of terrorists to copy each other’s behavior—the demonstration effect—also increased terrorism