109 JOINT 18 E

CDS / GSM

109 JOINT 18 E

Original: English

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

COMMITTEE ON

THE CIVIL DIMENSION OF SECURITY

MEDITERRANEAN AND MIDDLE EAST

SPECIAL GROUP

MISSION REPORT

DOHA, QATAR

13 – 15MARCH 2018

April 2018

This Mission Report is presented for information only and does not represent the official view of the Assembly. This report was prepared by Paul Cook, Director of the Mediterranean and Middle East Special Group.

  1. Qatar is a small country roughly the size of Montenegro. 2.7 million people live in the country, of which only 12% are Qatari citizens.The country has the highest per capita GDP in the world and is the world’s third largest gas producer and third greatest exporter of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).It is defined by both its energy endowments and its wealth. Qatari citizens enjoy a myriad of privileges compared with other residents in the country, but there has been an effort to improve conditions for non-Qatari workers. Criticism surrounding the construction of World Cup stadiums stung the government, and it has worked with the International Labour Organization (ILO) to improve working conditions in the country. Both the ILO and Amnesty International have noted the positive changes undertaken in labour and human rights conditions in the country. There is now talk of establishing permanent residence for some of those who have worked for years in Qatar. A change to the definition of citizenship,however, would seem unlikely. That said, the solidarity many non-citizen residents have shown with the government during the current crisis marks an important change and could have a positive impact over the long run.
  1. Qatar is not a Western democracy and political life there is far more influenced by tribal tradition than by Western democratic norms. There are neither political parties nor trade unions.Tribal leaders all know each other and are in the habit of working together.
  1. The government has long worked to modernize the country and to establish an independent foreign policy. The Qatari 2030 program aims to transform Qatar into an economically, socially and environmentally advanced society and the country has embarked on significant investments in infrastructure, schools, hospitals and a generous social welfare system.Two primary goals are to diversify the economy so that it is less dependent on the gas sector and to build a vibrant private sector.
  1. Qatar’s independent foreign policy grows out of its ambitions to maintain contacts with a diverse array of actors and to be a regional centre of mediation. This might be understood as a natural position for a small country to assume and it is a form of geo-strategic hedging. But this ambition is also a source of tension with its neighbours, and particularly Saudi Arabia and the UnitedArab Emirates (UAE).Qatar has welcomed dissidents from other countries and has found it difficult to explain to its neighbours that hosting dissidents is not the same as advocating their positions.
  1. There are currently 75,000 Syrians living in the country, many of whom have resided in the country for several generations.They have helped build the country.Western governments have encouraged Qatar to accept even more, although Qatar has given generously to support those who have fled Syria. Qatar is a strong opponent of the Assad government and this constitutes an important difference with Iran.
  1. Qatar would normally have sought to mediate in the Yemen crisis, but its difficult relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE have made that impossible. This is a role that Kuwait is currently playing.
  1. Qatar is not a significant military power, and although it is now procuring significant military capabilities, it relies on soft power. Its support for Al Jazeera has given the country a voice throughout the region, which is not welcomed by its neighbours.Although the government does not directly shape the editorial line of Al Jazeera, it likely has some influence simply as it funds the operation. The network is seen as extending the voice of the country to the rest of the world and it has indeed had a strong influence as it is watched by millions. The country’s support for the Arab Spring rebellions was particularly controversial, and this was an important factor in the crisis in relations with its Gulf neighbours. This crisis began with the decision of several countries including SaudiArabia and the UAE to cut ties with Qatar in May 2017, impose an embargo and, later, make 13 demands on the country which taken together would totally undermine its sovereignty. International efforts to mediate this dispute have so far come to naught.
  1. Qatar has a military force of roughly 16,000 troops but has trouble generating forces. Thirty per cent of the military is Qatari and there are nationals from 30 other countries serving in its ranks. The recent crisis in relations with other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries has hastened the military modernization effort. Qatar also hosts American and Turkish bases and it has signed military cooperation agreements with a number of Western countries as well as with Russia.The Emir visited NATO in early 2018 and signed an agreement that included information sharing.
  1. The country is very conscious of its environmental vulnerabilities linked to climate change. These include rising temperatures and aridity as well as rising sea levels. The country has supported a dry lands initiative to develop its understanding of the challenges. Desalinization is obviously of great interest to this very dry country, as is the use of renewable energy—areas in which there is substantial government support. Qatar has signed the Paris Agreement and it sees the use of natural gas as a far cleaner source of energy than oil and coal and a stepping stone toward renewable energy.
  1. The United States is concerned about the tension between Qatar and its neighbours and it has sought to bring the two sides together.This is a more intense diplomatic crisis than the similar tensions that emerged in 2013 and diplomatic contacts between Qatar and other GCC countries are all but cut off.The United States has conducted shuttle diplomacy led by its envoy GeneralAnthonyZinni to help find a solution. The United States has also engaged with Qatar on matters related to terrorist finance which has been a problem in the region as a whole. Oversight of banks and charities is essential, as well as intelligence work.
  1. Qatar has maintained a relationship with Iran and that relationship is largely rooted in the practical matter of a massive shared gas field that runs into the territorial waters of both countries.This gas is an essential component of world supplies and Qatar and Iran work together to minimize any potential challenges to extraction and moving this energy to market. Qatar has generated tremendous wealth transforming its gas into LNG and ithas to move this to world markets through the Straits of Hormuz. It thus has a strong interest in seeing peace preserved in the Gulf. The closing of the Gulf to commercial traffic would quite simply be a disaster for the country.Qatar’s dialogue with Iran has continued through the current diplomatic crisis within the GCC and Iran has given Qatar overflight privileges for its aircraft and facilitated the transport of food and goods through its ports. But this hardly reflects a broad understanding between the two countries, particularly on matters like Syria and Iraq.It is worth noting that other Gulf countries, including the UAE, have varying economic relations with Iran as well.
  1. Western governments do not believe that Qatar is a state sponsor of terrorism, and indeed many governments are collaborating with Qatar on matters pertaining to counter-terrorism and terrorist finance. Qatar has improved financial controls in response to criticism on this front.Much of these simply reflected weaknesses in the financial system and a lack of due diligence. The government now seems dedicated to getting this problem under control.
  1. More broadly, through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), NATO is working closely with several GCC countries, although not Saudi Arabia, on a wide range of defence and security related issues. These include defence planning, joint exercises, the fight against terrorism, and civil emergency planning. The countries of the region, including Qatar, have embraced this collaboration and it has deepened in recent years.
  1. Bilateral relations are also of obvious importance. Turkey, for example, signed an agreement with Qatar in 2014 to place an airbase on Qatari territory. Turkey had informed GCC countries of this in advance of the agreement. Other NATO countries including the United States, the United Kingdom and France have bases in the region as well, and this has helped stabilize regional security.
  1. The Delegation met with senior staff and researchers at the Brookings Doha Center (BDC). Tarik Yousef, the Director of the Center, welcomed the group and spoke of the work of Brookings in Doha and in the Middle East more generally. He also moderated the discussions. In a presentation on Iran's Regional Posture after the Uprising and the Rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Ali-Fathollah-Nejad, a BDC Visiting Fellow, noted that the recent uprisings in 90 Iranian cities reflect widespread economic and social discontent in the country.Many had noted that Iran had been largely immune to the instability that shook the region during the so-called Arab Spring, but this is an illusion. Iran is suffering from political malaise and social misery with half of the population living at or below the poverty line and with an extraordinarily high youth unemployment level. The environment is also in very poor condition and it is worsening as the region grows drier.This has triggered disillusion and if the sources of these problems are not addressed, the next social eruption could be more consequential. It is of significance that the demonstrations were widespread and not concentrated in the largest cities.
  1. There may also be a growing perception that Iran has overreached with its interventions on so many fronts throughout the Middle East. Rising internal dissent could paradoxically encourage a more aggressive Iranian policy insofar as it might serve to distract public focus on domestic problems. There are elements within the Iranian state that seek reconciliation with the countries of the Gulf. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad JavadZarif has proposed a collective security organization in the Gulf. The problem is that the Revolutionary Guard and the supreme religious authority are much more skeptical of any move in this direction. If anything, Iran has moved into a more offensive posture and is clearly seeking to be the region’s dominant geopolitical actor. This naturally creates problems with Saudi Arabia which has similar aspirations.Peace in the Gulf will ultimately hinge on the capacity of the region’s governments to cope with socioeconomic problems, develop a higher level of political inclusion and accommodate differences.
  1. The ability of the Iranian government to deliver on its promises is also hindered by the low price of oil, which is now half of what it was under the government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.This has led to a vicious cycle in which reformists cannot deliver on promises, and this, in turn, gives rise to right-wing populism which invariably worsens the problems.
  1. Most of Iran’s elite have supported the nuclear deal and have benefitted from it.Europe has tended to glorify this deal while the Trump administration has demonized it.Neither side paints an accurate picture.Iran is pushing forward with its missile program, and this poses a serious policy dilemma.The EU should be pushing Iran on this issue. There are no easy military solutions to the larger problem, MrFathollah-Nejad argued.
  1. RanjAlaaldin,a Brookings Visiting Fellow,spoke on the The Future of Iraq and Syria after ISIS and the Emerging Regional Order.He argued that both had once been robust states but had been significantly reduced by upheaval in recent years. He noted that it has become increasingly difficult to discern between state and non-state actors in the region and that the international community seems to lack a strategy for dealing with the challenge.That conflicts in both countries have taken on the look of proxy wars has not helped.It is likely that both Iraq and Syria will move forward as decentralized countries which will give more latitude to local and regional governance. Iraq probably has a brighter future, and the West has invested more deeply in helping it build a viable future.But the Arab world must be engaged.Turkey also has a special role to play. It is a regional power, has legitimacy in the region and can ultimately act as a guarantor of security. NATO too can contribute to building regional security. The problem has come from aleadership void inthe region, the lack of a politicalframework for building stability and the absence of a unifying vision for the future. Failure on this front will mean that Russia and Iran will fill the void. Iran is exerting unparalleled influence in Iraq and it could do so in Syria as well.
  1. The United States has been playing an ever-smaller role in the region. This trend was already apparent during the Obama administration and has continued under President Donald Trump.Russia has exploited the lack of American commitment in Syria and the question now is whether the United States has any redlines in this regard and whether it would enforce these. President Trump did show some backbone when he launched a bombing in response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons. This helped restore respect for international law.
  1. Brookings Visiting FellowNohaAboueldahabspoke on TheProtection of Human Rights in Qatar and the Region.She remarked that the poor treatment of domestic workers in Qatar had long been a problem. There were restrictions on the freedom of movement as a result of the sponsorship law. More generally, the problem of World Cup stadium construction exposed the weakness of labour protection in the country and a system of recruitment that relied on some agencies that were not acting properly in several developing countries. The World Confederation of Labour (WCL) filed a complaint and the ILO gave Qatar a deadline to deal with the problem. Real progress has since been registered.Qatar has now promised to improve living and working conditions for migrant workers and, if anything, its efforts have accelerated since the onset of the crisis within the GCC. Domestic workers now have legal protections and there are limits to working hours as well as a system of paid leave.Salaries now must be paid on time. There are still loopholes, however, and workers can exceed time limits if they agree to do so. This is obviously open to abuse. The court system for enforcing these laws remains slow and improvements are needed here as well.The courts are overburdened, but essential reform is underway. It is important to recognize that external actors have played an important role in pushing for change. There is no organized civil society movement pushing for change within Qatar and there are no trade unions in the country.
  1. It is also important to recognize that these problems are often worse in other countries in the region.Human rights protections in Egypt have been eviscerated andthere has been a major crackdown on freedom of expression and enforced disappearances are on the rise in that country. Tunisia is the region’s most important exception on this front but even in that country there remain serious social grievances and weak institutions incapable of social mediation.
  1. The Delegation had the opportunity to visit the Qatar Foundation,which is a fund dedicated to promoting education in the country and helping Qatar move from a resource-based economy to a knowledge economy. The foundation is one of the largest NGOs in the world. It has promoted the establishment of a network of schools to train children for this new economic paradigm.The system is largely predicated on the International Baccalaureate with a partial focus on Qatar’s unique culture. The schools have students from many nationalities and many graduates go on to study at world renowned universities abroad. The country has also developed partnerships with several universities that operate campuses in Qatar. These include Georgetown, Carnegie Mellon, Cornell, Texas Tech, Northwestern,HEC Paris, and University College London.The presence of these worldclassinstitutions has helped fast-track Qatar’s university system. The country has provided the land for the campuses and the universities run their programs just as they would in their home countries.