The British Parliamentary Constituency Database, 1992-2001
Pippa Norris British Parliamentary Constituency Database 1992-2001: Executive Report June 13, 2001
The British Parliamentary Constituency Database, 1992-2001
By Party Holding Seat in 1997Mean
WIN97 Winner 1997 / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Con / 1.5057 / 2.603 / -.408 / -.569 / -11.336
Lab / 1.4396 / .169 / -2.716 / 2.057 / -13.147
LibDem / .7059 / -.146 / -1.557 / 2.595 / -10.719
PC / 1.8476 / 2.790 / -.905 / 4.477 / -11.834
SNP / -2.6391 / -1.363 / 3.916 / 4.424 / -12.269
Oth / 10.654 / -4.539 / -9.809
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Standard Region
Mean
REGION Major Census Region (Britain) / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
South-east / .5759 / 1.232 / 8.010E-02 / -.118 / -12.481
East Anglia / 2.4809 / 2.785 / -2.177 / .922 / -10.954
Greater London / .8004 / -.511 / -2.112 / 2.631 / -12.558
South West / .7335 / 1.715 / .248 / -.377 / -10.249
West Midlands / 1.4943 / .541 / -2.483 / .960 / -12.578
East Midlands / 2.1420 / 2.003 / -2.281 / 1.747 / -12.629
Yorkshire and Humberside / 2.1957 / 1.679 / -2.712 / 1.029 / -11.809
North West / 1.4784 / .644 / -2.458 / 2.069 / -14.702
North / 3.3921 / 2.105 / -4.680 / 3.699 / -11.944
Wales / 3.5250 / 1.287 / -5.763 / 1.409 / -11.911
Scotland / -.2087 / -1.891 / -1.519 / 3.130 / -13.219
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By County
Mean
COUNTY County / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
London North / .8062 / -.217 / -1.829 / 2.129 / -12.378
London South / .7929 / -.896 / -2.482 / 3.290 / -12.793
Gr. Manchester / 1.4955 / -6.913E-03 / -2.998 / 2.520 / -15.154
Merseyside / .4185 / -.401 / -1.238 / 2.721 / -15.891
South Yorkshire / 2.5098 / 1.958 / -3.062 / 1.231 / -11.758
Tyne and Wear / 2.2891 / .352 / -4.227 / 4.806 / -12.363
West Midlands / .9912 / 1.737E-02 / -2.048 / 1.542 / -13.024
West Yorkshire / 1.5420 / .905 / -2.179 / .981 / -12.630
Avon / -.8451 / -1.239 / .451 / 1.219 / -10.895
Bedfordshire / .5799 / .419 / -.741 / 1.828 / -13.771
Berkshire / -1.9112 / -.424 / 3.398 / -1.587 / -12.775
Buckinghamshire / .7024 / 1.509 / .104 / -1.129 / -11.252
Cambridgeshire / 1.3945 / .670 / -2.119 / 3.288 / -11.651
Cheshire / 1.6742 / 1.897 / -2.327 / 1.850 / -14.452
Cleveland / 1.9067 / .876 / -2.938 / 2.451 / -13.526
Cornwall / .8824 / 2.200 / .435 / .766 / -9.959
Cumbria / 5.8384 / 5.723 / -5.954 / 2.090 / -10.483
Derby / 2.5027 / 1.555 / -3.450 / 3.608 / -13.717
Devon / 1.6855 / 1.973 / -1.398 / 5.986E-02 / -9.601
Dorset / .4712 / 3.314 / 2.371 / -2.483 / -10.275
Durham / 4.3021 / 2.913 / -5.692 / 4.448 / -11.690
East Sussex / -.7312 / -5.937E-02 / 1.403 / -.326 / -10.022
Essex / 2.1326 / 2.521 / -1.744 / -1.585 / -13.198
Gloucestershire / .8761 / 1.421 / -.331 / -.351 / -11.540
Hampshire / 1.884E-03 / 7.087E-02 / 6.711E-02 / 1.857 / -12.249
Hereford & Worcs / 2.4523 / .237 / -4.668 / -1.693 / -10.702
Hertfordshire / 1.0600 / 1.296 / -.824 / .805 / -13.384
Humberside / 2.3386 / 1.673 / -3.005 / 1.238 / -11.595
Isle of Wight / 1.8418 / 5.741 / 2.057 / -7.467 / -12.250
Kent / 1.0527 / 2.842 / .737 / -1.623 / -12.074
Lancashire / 2.1601 / 2.005 / -2.315 / .499 / -13.164
Leicestershire / 1.8310 / 1.311 / -2.351 / 1.921 / -11.418
Lincolnshire / 2.1365 / 3.431 / -.842 / -1.507 / -10.859
Norfolk / 4.2308 / 4.544 / -3.917 / 1.083 / -9.680
Northamptonshire / 1.3968 / .868 / -1.926 / 1.920 / -11.772
Northumberland / 4.0861 / 3.256 / -4.916 / 3.115 / -11.657
Nottinghamshire / 2.4053 / 2.368 / -2.443 / 2.031 / -13.648
North Yorkshire / 3.0940 / 3.299 / -2.889 / .433 / -9.578
Oxfordshire / .9759 / -.361 / -2.313 / 2.880 / -13.282
Shropshire / 1.5249 / 1.408 / -1.642 / -1.395 / -10.539
Somerset / 2.6496 / 4.464 / -.835 / -1.127 / -8.947
Staffordshire / 2.4866 / 1.767 / -3.206 / 1.810 / -13.915
Suffolk / 1.5365 / 2.390 / -.683 / -.373 / -11.813
Surrey / .8580 / 1.720 / 4.301E-03 / 1.643 / -12.509
Warwickshire / .9287 / .655 / -1.202 / 1.657 / -12.032
West Sussex / -.4144 / 1.079 / 1.908 / -2.767 / -12.745
Wiltshire / .1055 / 1.631 / 1.420 / -1.383 / -10.359
Clwyd / 2.8587 / 1.549 / -4.169 / 2.029 / -11.763
Dyfed / 5.1164 / 2.230 / -8.002 / 1.520 / -10.120
Gwent / 4.4733 / 1.835 / -7.112 / 1.978 / -13.234
Gwynedd / -.7480 / 1.510 / 3.006 / -1.703 / -11.943
Mid Glamorgan / 4.5382 / 1.046 / -8.030 / .430 / -12.783
Powys / 5.0383 / 3.822 / -6.255 / -.237 / -9.924
South Glamorgan / 1.6488 / -.906 / -4.204 / 4.995 / -11.527
West Glamorgan / 4.8658 / .706 / -9.025 / .805 / -12.226
Dumfries & Galloway / -.4114 / 1.821 / 2.644 / 2.214 / -11.385
Fife / -.7603 / -2.116 / -.596 / 1.535 / -13.696
Grampian / -3.0271 / -4.660 / 1.394 / 3.113 / -12.280
Highlands / 1.4247 / -.960 / -3.809 / 6.940 / -9.866
Islands / 4.3850 / 4.636 / -4.134 / -3.629 / -10.687
Lothian / -.7333 / -2.929 / -1.462 / 4.664 / -13.751
Strathclyde / .5406 / -1.140 / -2.300 / 2.742 / -13.636
Tayside/Central / -1.1119 / -3.400 / -1.177 / 3.761 / -13.581
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Marginality
Mean
MARGINAL Level of marginality / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Ultra marginal: majority 1997 lt 4.9% / 1.1793 / 1.893 / -.466 / .565 / -10.257
Fairly marginal: maj 1997 5.0-9.9% / .4328 / 1.246 / .380 / -.425 / -11.611
Fairly Safe: maj 1997 10.0-14.9 / .8859 / .656 / -1.116 / .867 / -12.056
Very Safe: maj 1997 15.0-19.9% / .8393 / .850 / -.829 / .806 / -12.298
Ultra safe: maj 1997 20%+ / 1.9010 / .446 / -3.360 / 2.417 / -13.316
Total / 1.3789 / .779 / -1.983 / 1.463 / -12.485
By Type of Battleground Seat
Mean
BATTLE Type of battleground seat / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Con-Lab seat in 1997 / 1.6205 / 2.913 / -.328 / -.942 / -11.736
Con-LD seat 1997 / 1.3610 / 2.213 / -.509 / -9.838E-02 / -10.832
Lab-Con seat in 1997 / 1.5753 / .499 / -2.652 / 1.980 / -13.098
Lab-LD seat 1997 / 1.2262 / -.703 / -3.156 / 1.759 / -12.989
LD-Con seat in 1997 / .4568 / -.364 / -1.278 / 2.537 / -10.691
LD-Lab seat 1997 / 3.0285 / .947 / -5.110 / 5.128 / -11.133
Total / 1.4762 / .977 / -1.975 / 1.313 / -12.410
Correlations
SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
ACORN1 Wealthy achievers, suburban areas / Pearson Correlation / -.102 / .243
Sig. (2-tailed) / .010 / .000
ACORN2 Affluent greys, rural communities / Pearson Correlation / .157 / .344
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
ACORN3 Prosperous pensioners, retirement areas / Pearson Correlation / -.069 / .314
Sig. (2-tailed) / .084 / .000
ACORN4 Affluent executives, family areas / Pearson Correlation / -.155 / -.049
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .211
ACORN5 Well-off workers, family areas / Pearson Correlation / .019 / -.209
Sig. (2-tailed) / .638 / .000
ACORN6 Affluent urbanites, town and city areas / Pearson Correlation / -.230 / -.044
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .267
ACORN7 Prosperous professionals, metropolitan areas / Pearson Correlation / -.133 / -.041
Sig. (2-tailed) / .001 / .300
ACORN8 Better off executives, inner city areas / Pearson Correlation / -.089 / -.002
Sig. (2-tailed) / .025 / .961
ACORN9 Comfortable middle agers, mature home owning areas / Pearson Correlation / .070 / .260
Sig. (2-tailed) / .075 / .000
ACORN10 Skilled workers, home owning areas / Pearson Correlation / .277 / -.229
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
ACORN11 New home owners, mature communities / Pearson Correlation / .303 / .035
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .370
ACORN12 White collar workers, better off multi ethnic areas / Pearson Correlation / -.228 / .046
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .247
N / 638 / 641
ACORN13 Older people, less prosperous areas / Pearson Correlation / .053 / -.199
Sig. (2-tailed) / .180 / .000
N / 638 / 641
ACORN14 Council estate residents, better off homes / Pearson Correlation / .046 / -.331
Sig. (2-tailed) / .251 / .000
N / 638 / 641
ACORN15 Council estate residents, high unemployment / Pearson Correlation / -.065 / -.171
Sig. (2-tailed) / .102 / .000
N / 638 / 641
ACORN16 Council estate residents, greatest hardship / Pearson Correlation / .067 / -.250
Sig. (2-tailed) / .092 / .000
Correlations
SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
SEG_I Proportion of Hseholds SEG I- Professional 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / -.233 / .153
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
N / 637 / 640
SEG_II Proportion of Hseholds SEG II - Managerial and technical 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / -.189 / .282
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
N / 637 / 640
SEG_IIIN Proportion of hseholds SEG IIIN - Skilled non-manual 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / -.338 / -.167
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
N / 637 / 640
SEG_IIIM Proportion of Hseholds SEG IIIM - Skilled Manual 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / .344 / -.190
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
N / 637 / 640
SEG_IV Proportion of Hseholds SEG IV - Partly skilled 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / .247 / -.152
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000
N / 637 / 640
SEG_V Proportion of hseholds SEG V- Unskilled 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / .134 / -.177
Sig. (2-tailed) / .001 / .000
N / 637 / 640
Sig. (2-tailed) / .051 / .011
N / 566 / 568
Correlations
SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
WHITE Proportion of white residents 1990 Census / Pearson Correlation / .180 / -.021
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .596
N / 637 / 640
NONWHITE Proportion of Non-white residents 1990 census / Pearson Correlation / -.236 / .010
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .809
N / 566 / 568
By Gender of Lab PPC
Mean
LABSEX01 Gender of Labour candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Male / 1.4145 / .828 / -2.032 / 1.504 / -12.389
Female / 1.2112 / .676 / -1.747 / 1.283 / -12.789
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Race of Labour candidate
Mean
LABRAC01 Ethnicity of Labour candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
White / 1.3530 / .793 / -1.938 / 1.419 / -12.506
Asian/Black / 1.8313 / .799 / -2.863 / 2.506 / -11.665
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Gender of Con PPC
Mean
CONSEX01 Gender of Conservative candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Male / 1.3525 / .821 / -1.907 / 1.357 / -12.380
Female / 1.4610 / .624 / -2.323 / 2.029 / -13.079
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By race of Con PPC
Mean
CONRAC01 Ethnicity of Conservative candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
White / 1.3680 / .820 / -1.940 / 1.442 / -12.489
Asian/Black / 1.3687 / -.267 / -3.004 / 1.872 / -12.128
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Gender of LD PPC
Mean
LDSEX01 Gender of LD candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
Male / 1.4950 / .864 / -2.151 / 1.506 / -12.539
Female / .8902 / .526 / -1.279 / 1.256 / -12.258
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
By Race of LD PPC
Mean
LDRACE01 Ethnicity of LD Candidate / SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
White / 1.3905 / .840 / -1.965 / 1.493 / -12.538
Asian/Black / .8773 / -.242 / -1.997 / .590 / -11.214
Total / 1.3680 / .793 / -1.967 / 1.453 / -12.480
Correlations
SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001
SWING01 'Butler' Lab to Con swing 1997-2001 / Pearson Correlation / 1.000 / .584 / -.783 / .182 / .029
Sig. (2-tailed) / . / .000 / .000 / .000 / .472
N / 638 / 638 / 638 / 637 / 638
CON9701 Change in the Conservative Vote 1997-2001 / Pearson Correlation / .584 / 1.000 / .047 / -.450 / .087
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / . / .235 / .000 / .028
N / 638 / 639 / 638 / 637 / 639
LAB9701 Change in the Labour share of the vote 1997-2001 / Pearson Correlation / -.783 / .047 / 1.000 / -.575 / .031
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .235 / . / .000 / .427
N / 638 / 638 / 640 / 637 / 640
LD9701 Change in the Lib Dem share of the vote 1997-2001 / Pearson Correlation / .182 / -.450 / -.575 / 1.000 / -.120
Sig. (2-tailed) / .000 / .000 / .000 / . / .002
N / 637 / 637 / 637 / 637 / 637
TURN9701 Change in % turnout 1997-2001 / Pearson Correlation / .029 / .087 / .031 / -.120 / 1.000
Sig. (2-tailed) / .472 / .028 / .427 / .002 / .
N / 638 / 639 / 640 / 637 / 641
1