Summary

  1. Likely voters in Memphis’s Mayoral elections feel that “things in Memphis are generally headed in the wrong direction” (57%) rather than the right direction (27%). However, while African-American voters say things are headed in the right direction (44% to 35%), Caucasian voters say things are headed in the wrong direction (83% to 7%). Voters who live in the Southern part of Memphis feel that things are headed in the right direction (51%) rather than the wrong direction (42%).
  1. Carol Chumney has a relatively high job approval rating (40%) which is up 6% since the Yacoubian Poll in July.

Table 1: Job Performance Grades of:

  • Those who favor an 8 year limit on the Mayor’s term gave Chumney slightly more positive grades (+6%).

  1. Mayor Herenton continues to have a slight edge in voters’ perceptions about creating jobs and growing the local economy. However, Carol Chumney is perceived to be more able to address the other major issues better than the Mayor: improving public schools and reducing the crime rate. Herman Morris’s numbers on all three issues match his general support level.

Table 2: Which of the four candidates is in the best position to:

  • Nearly 30% of voters are uncertain who, if anyone, can reduce the crime rate.

  1. Mayor Herenton and Councilwoman Chumney are about even in the race for Mayor, with Herman Morris in a credible third place. While John Willingham only has 2% of the vote, nearly a fifth of the voters (18%) are undecided.

Table 3: If the election for Memphis Mayor was today, which of the four candidates would you vote for?

  • If Morris was not in the race, 74% of his voters would vote for Chumney and 8% for Herenton.
  • If Chumney was not in the race, 59% would vote for Morris and 5% for Herenton.
  • Thus those who plan to vote for Chumney or Morris are not likely to switch over to vote for Herenton.
  • In sum, Mayor Herenton can still win this election if he can convince African-American voters that on his worst day he is still better than Herman Morris.
  • Carol Chumney can win this election if she can unite the anti-Herenton voters (60%+ of all voters) that she is the only one who can bring about significant change at City hall.
  • Herman Morris can close the gap and perhaps win if he can convince more African-American voters that he is the only viable option to Herenton.

It’s a 3-dimensional chess match and the queen has a slight advantage over the king and the bishop. However, with 10 days to go, anything can and probably will change.

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Yacoubian Mayoral Poll - Update

11/5/2018