SURVEY OF ILLINOIS VOTERS
Support for tax referendum
Conducted by the UIS Survey Research Office,
Center for State Policy & Leadership
October 23, 2014
Introduction
This is the second report issued from the 2014 Survey of Illinois Voters conducted by the UIS Survey Research Office, a unit in the Center for State Policy & Leadership. For a complete explanation of the methodology, please refer to the original report released on October 20, 2014 and available at The purpose of this report is to examine the level of support for the advisory referendum which increases taxes on individual income greater than $1 million (commonly referred to as the “millionaire’s tax”). Each participant in the online sample of likely Illinois voters was provided all four variations of the question (in a random order), one of which was the actual referendum language.Previous research demonstrates that while increasing taxes on individuals earning over $1 million annually tends to receive a large amount of support, the level of the support depends on how the question or voting referendum is phrased. We sought out to test whether there was an effect on the level of support or opposition depending on how the question was posed to Illinois voters. Topline results (with full question wordings) and cross-tabs are available at the end of the report. The four questions asked of respondentswere:
- Do you think that taxes on Illinois residents earning over $1 million annually should be increased? (GENERAL SUPPORT)
- Please tell me if you would favor, oppose, or neither favor or oppose the following: A law requiring that all Americans with incomes of $1 million annually or more pay a larger percent of their income for taxes. (LAW CHANGE)
- Do you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to add a 3 percent tax on all income above $1 million a year to provide additional funding to public schools? (ADVISORY PROPOSAL)
- Should the Illinois Constitution be amended to require that each school district receive additional revenue based on their number of students, from an additional 3% tax on income greater than one million dollars? (VOTER REFERENDUM)
Executive Summary
The 2014 Survey of Illinois Voters finds a majority of voters (63.1%) support the voter referendum. However, this wording of the question receives the second lowest level of support. As seen in the figure below, the form of the question that receives the highest level of support is “Do you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to add a 2 percent tax on all income above $1 million a year to provide additional funding to public schools.
Differences among types of voters
When examining the types of voters who were more likely to support such referendums, we find that support is highest among younger voters, Democrat voters, and female voters. Seventy-two percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 24 support the voter referendum compared to 57.6% of voters 65 and older. In addition, 75.2% of Democrats support the referendum compared to 60.7% of Independent voters and 48.6% of Republican voters. In addition, 69.7% of female voters support the referendum compared to 56.1% of male voters.Surprisingly, income level is not a significant predictor of support for the referendum. While individuals earning more than $120,000 annually have the lowest level of support (54.4%), there are nosignificant differences across the other income groups (see figure below).
Differences in the level of support and opposition
For two of the questions, individuals were also asked whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” supported/opposed the measure (law/advisory proposal). Interestingly, we find that among individuals who support the measure (both the law and the advisory proposal question wording), the majority report that they “strongly favor,” as opposed to “somewhat favor.” This is contrary to what we find among those individuals who report that they oppose the measure. Of individuals who oppose the measure (both the law and the advisory proposal question wording), the majority report that they “somewhat oppose,” as opposed to “strongly oppose.” For example, of the 189 individuals who oppose the advisory proposal, 56.9% report that they “somewhat oppose” and 43.1% report that they “strongly oppose” it. Of the 537 individuals who report that they favor the advisory proposal, 71.8% report that they “strongly favor” it and 28.2% report that they “somewhat favor” it.
Methodology
Participants in the 2014 Survey of Illinois Voters were solicited and compensated by Qualtrics. In order to participate, individuals had to live in Illinois and be a registered voter (or report that they were planning on registering prior to Election Day). Over 1000 individuals (1133) began the survey and reported that they currently lived in Illinois. Of those, 982 reported that they were registered to vote at their current address. Quotas were set by location (Cook County, Chicago Suburbs, and Downstate) and age (18-24 years old, 25-44 years old, 45-64 years old, and 65 and older). These quotas produced 752 registered voters.
Previous research demonstrates that including filters to determine the likelihood of an individual voting is a more reliable measure of voting results. Individuals were asked whether they were certain to vote in the election, a small chance they might not get to vote, or probably not vote.” Individuals who reported that they were either certain to vote or small chance they might not get to vote were included in our likely voter sample. The likely voter sample was also weighted to better represent the Illinois voting population using CNN’s 2010 exit polling data. The data is weighted using gender, race, age, and region. The likely voter sample includes 723 individuals and has an overall margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Complete question wording and frequencies are available in the Topline report.
Date of Poll: 10/02/2014 – 10/08/2014
Cross-tabs: Voter Referendum by Age, Party, Income
Responses: 723Margin of error: ±3.7
Age
Yes / No18-24 years old / 71.7% / 28.3%
25-44 years old / 65.4% / 34.6%
45-64 years old / 62.2% / 37.8%
65 or older / 57.6% / 42.4%
Party Identification
Yes / NoRepublican / 48.6% / 51.4%
Democrat / 75.2% / 24.8%
Independent / 60.7% / 29.3%
Income
Yes / NoLess than $15,000 a year / 63.0% / 37.0%
$15,000-$30,000 a year / 62.0% / 38.0%
$30,001-$60,000 a year / 69.2% / 30.8%
$60,001-$90,000 a year / 61.2% / 38.8%
$90,001-$120,000 a year / 61.4% / 38.6%
More than $120,000 a year / 54.4% / 45.6%
Date of Poll: 10/02/2014 – 10/08/2014
Cross-tabs: Voter Referendum by Support for Gubernatorial Candidates, Gender, Race, Location in Illinois
Responses: 723Margin of error: ±3.7
Gubernatorial vote
Yes / NoBruce Rauner / 53.8% / 46.2%
Pat Quinn / 71.9% / 28.1%
Other / 45.5 / 54.5%
Don’t know / 66.4% / 33.6%
Gender
Yes / NoMale / 56.1% / 43.9%
Female / 69.7% / 30.3%
Race
Yes / NoWhite / 60.4% / 39.6%
African-American/Black / 75.2% / 24.8%
Asian/Pacific-Islander / 57.8% / 42.2%
Other / 74.1% / 25.9%
Location in Illinois
Yes / NoCity of Chicago (Cook County) / 67.0% / 33.0%
Chicago Suburbs (Lake County, DuPage County, Kane County, Kendall County) / 60.0% / 40.0%
Downstate Illinois / 61.6% / 38.4%
TOPLINE REPORT (N= 723)
Which of the following best describes you?
Valid percent(n)You are ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that you are registered to vote at your current address (in Illinois). / 89.5% (650)
You are PROBABLY registered to vote at your current address (in Illinois), but there is a chance your registration has lapsed. / 5.6% (41)
You are NOT registered to vote at your current address (in Illinois). / 4.9% (36)
Do you plan to register so that you can vote in the upcoming election?
Valid percent(n)Yes / 100.0% (36)
No / 0.0% (0)
And, as of today, would you describe yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or Other?
Valid percent (n)Republican / 25.9% (188)
Democrat / 41.2% (299)
Independent / 29.5% (215)
Other, please specify: / 3.4% (25)
How would you describe your views on most political matters? Generally, do you consider yourself as extremely conservative, conservative, slightly conservative, moderate or middle of the road, slightly liberal, liberal, or extremely liberal?
Valid percent (n)Extremely conservative / 5.0% (37)
Conservative / 18.4% (133)
Slightly conservative / 13.3% (96)
Moderate or middle of the road / 35.2% (256)
Slightly liberal / 11.2% (81)
Liberal / 13.0% (94)
Extremely liberal / 3.9% (28)
As you may know, statewide elections in Illinois will be held this November. Thinking ahead, are you certain to vote in the election, is there a small chance you might not get a chance to vote, or will you probably not vote in the November election?
Valid percent (n)Certain to vote in the election / 83.5% (606)
Small chance you might not get to vote / 16.5% (120)
Probably not vote / 0.0% (0)
And, how do you plan on voting in the November election?
Valid percent(n)At an early Voting site prior election day / 22.6% (164)
By absentee ballot / 8.9% (65)
At my designated polling place on election day / 68.6% (498)
We are interested in how well local officials communicate with voters about the location of polling in Illinois. Thinking about you polling place for the upcoming elections, do you think its exact location, are you pretty of its location, or are you unsure of where your polling place is?
Valid percent(n)I know the exact location of my polling place / 75.8% (550)
I am pretty sure of the location of my polling place / 16.8% (122)
Unsure of the location of my polling place / 7.4% (54)
Thinking about the upcoming elections, are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic than usual?
Valid percent(n)More enthusiastic / 51.5% (374)
Less enthusiastic / 48.5% (352)
As you know, members of the US House of Representatives are on the ballot this November. If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republication candidate for Congress or the Democratic candidate?
Valid percent(n)Republican candidate / 32.4% (234)
Democratic candidate / 43.1% (312)
Unsure / 24.5% (177)
If the election for governor was being held today, who would you vote for?
Valid percent(n)Bruce Rauner / 39.3% (284)
Pat Quinn / 37.5% (271)
Someone else, please specify / 1.5% (11)
Don’t know / 21.6% (156)
While you are unsure of who you would vote for Illinois governor, which way are you leaning to vote?
Valid percent(n)Leaning Bruce Rauner / 17.4% (27)
Leaning Pat Quinn / 17.7% (28)
Unsure / 64.9% (101)
Where in Illinois do you currently live?
Valid percent(n)Cook County Chicago Suburbs (Lake County, DuPage County, Kane County, Kendall County) / 36.4% (264)
Lake County, DuPage County, Kane County, Kendall County / 27.2% (198)
Other, please specify: / 36.4% (264)
What is your current age?
Valid percent(n)18-24 years old / 5.9% (43)
25-44 years old / 35.0% (254)
45-64 years old / 44.3% (322)
65 or older / 14.8% (108)
What is your race?
Valid percent(n)White / 72.8% (529)
African American/Black / 16.0% (116)
Asian/Pacific Islander / 7.1% (51)
Native American / 0.3% (2)
Non-resident alien / 0.2% (1)
Other, specify: / 3.6% (26)
Please identify your gender:
Valid percent(n)Male / 48.6% (353)
Female / 51.2% (372)
Other, please specify: / 0.2% (2)
Prefer not to say / 0.0% (0)
Are you Hispanic/Latino(a)?
Valid percent(n)Yes / 5.3% (38)
No / 94.7% (688)
What is your disability status?
Valid percent(n)Do not have a disability / 84.2% (609)
Have a disability / 15.8% (114)
What is the highest level of education that you have completed?
Valid percent (n)Less than high school diploma / 0.6% (4)
High school diploma or equivalent / 18.2% (131)
Some college / 34.6% (250)
4 year college degree / 31.0% (224)
An advanced degree (graduate degree, law degree, medical degree) / 15.7% (113)
Which of the following categories best describes your annual earned income before taxes:
Valid percent (n)Less than $15,000 a year / 11.1% (80)
$15,000-$30,0000 a year / 18.1% (131)
$30,001-$60,0000 a year / 27.4% (198)
$60,001-$90,0000 a year / 22.6% (163)
$90,001-$120,0000 a year / 11.5% (83)
More than $120,0000 a year / 9.4% (68)
Do you think the amount of taxes you pay is very fair, somewhat fair, somewhat unfair, or very unfair? Or do you not know?
Valid percent(n)Very fair / 5.9% (43)
Somewhat fair / 23.4% (170)
Somewhat unfair / 30.0% (218)
Very unfair / 36.2% (263)
Don’t know / 4.4% (32)
Do you think that taxes on Illinois residents earning over $1 million annually should be increased?
Valid percent(n)Yes / 62.0% (450)
No / 22.3% (162)
Don’t know / 15.7% (114)
Please tell me if you would favor, oppose, or neither favor or oppose the following: A law requiring that all Americans with incomes of $1 million annually or more pay a larger percent of their income for taxes.
Valid percent(n)Favor / 66.0% (479)
Oppose / 16.4% (119)
Neither favor nor oppose / 17.6% (128)
Do you strongly favor or somewhat favor?
Valid percent(n)Strongly favor / 78.1% (374)
Somewhat favor / 21.9% (105)
Do you strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
Valid percent(n)Strongly oppose / 48.0% (57)
Somewhat oppose / 52.0% (62)
Do you favor or oppose an advisory proposal to add a 3 percent tax on all income above $1 million a year to provide additional funding to public schools?
Valid percent(n)Favor / 74.0% (537)
Oppose / 26.0% (189)
Do you strongly favor or somewhat favor?
Valid percent(n)Strongly favor / 71.8% (386)
Somewhat favor / 28.2% (151)
Do you strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
Valid percent(n)Strongly oppose / 43.1% (82)
Somewhat oppose / 56.9% (108)
Should the Illinois Constitution be amended to require that each school district receive additional revenue based on their number of students, from an additional 3% tax on income greater than one million dollars?
Valid percent(n)Yes / 63.1% (458)
No / 36.9% (258)