2. Demographics
Midyear estimates (2009) shows that the KwaZulu-Natal population is estimated at an average size of 9.9 million people. Figure 2.1 shows the total population by DMs. EThekwini metropolitan municipality (32.8 percent of KZN population) has the largest number of population, followed by uMgungundlovu district (9.5 percent of KZN population). Sisonke (4.8 percent) and UMzinyathi district (4.8 percent) has the smallest number of population. UGu district is the fifth most populated district and it has 7.1 percent of KwaZulu-Natal population.
Figure 2.1 Total Population by DMs, average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight, 2009
Figure 2.2 shows the total population by age group across district municipalities. In all the DMs the largest proportion of the population was the age group15-64 years and the age group 64+ years has the smallest proportion in all the districts. EThekwini district (68.3 percent) has the largest proportion compare to other districts. In uGu district the largest proportion of the population was the age group 15-54years (414,024), which constitute 58.3 percent of the district population, followed by the age group 00-14 years (43,292), which was 35.6 percent. UGu district the age group 64+ years (6.1 percent) has the larger proportion compare to all the districts followed by uMgungundlovu (5.3 percent).
Figure 2.2 Total population by age group across DMs; average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight, 2009
Figure 2.3Total population distribution by gender across DMs; average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 2.3 shows the total population distribution by gender across DMs, the majority of the population across all districts was female. In uGu the majority of the population was females (52 percent) followed by male (48 percent).
3. Economic Outlook
3.1 Gross domestic product per DM
Between 2002 and 2009 KwaZulu-Natal GDP was estimated at the average of R258 bn. Figure 3.1 shows how much DMs contributed to KwaZulu-Natal GDPR between 2002 and 2009. EThekwini district made the largest contribution to KZN GDPR (64.6 percent) followed by uThungulu (9.2percent) and uMgungundlovu (8.4 percent). UGu made the fourth largest contribution to the KZN GDP, at 3.6 percent. UMzinyathi made the least contribution (0.8 percent) followed by uMkhanyakude (1.09 percent).
Figure 3.1Districts contribution to KwaZulu-Natal GDPR (%), average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 3.2 Ugu’s GDP-M by Sectors (2002-2009)Source: Global Insight; 2009
4. International Trade
Figure 4.1 shows the percentage of exports, imports, and trade balance as a proportion of GDP across all districts. The international trade in the UGu districts has a small impact on the economy of the district. At an average of 7 year period, the district’s trade balance showed a negative impact towards the total GDP. UThungulu and uMgungundlovu’s exports made a significant contribution towards the districts’ GDP resulting in a positive trade balance.
Figure 4.1 Exports, imports & Trade Balance (percent of GDP), average 2002-2009Source: Global Insight; 2009
5. Labour Market
5.1 Economically active population
In KwaZulu-Natal economically active population was estimated at the average of 2.6 million. Figure 5.1 illustrates the economically active population by district municipalities. EThekwini district (1.2 million) has the largest number of economically active population. UGu district has 36.6 percent of economically active population. UGu is the fourth most economically active district after Amajuba (45.7 percent), uMgungundlovu (47.2 percent) and eThekwini (54.2 percent).
Figure 5.1The economically active population by DM, average 2002-2009
5.2 Unemployment
Figure 5.2 shows the total unemployment by district municipalities, between 2002-2009 eThekwini district (323,991) had a highest number of unemployed people in the province followed by uMgungundlovu (99,288). The number of unemployed people in uGu district was averaged 54,227, the fifth highest unemployment figure. Sisonke district has the lowest number of unemployed people, at 28,835.
Figure 5.3 Unemployment rate by district, average 2002-2009Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 5.3 illustrates the unemployment rate by MDs between 2002 and 2009. UMzinyathi district (57.8 percent) has the higher average unemployment rate compare to other district in the province. UMzinyathi, uMkhanyakude and Zululand were at 57.8, 50.8 and 47.8 percent between 2002 and 2009. These districts were highest contributors to the provincial unemployment rate. UGu district was 36.3 percent between 2002 and 2009. In uGu district the unemployment rate was higher among Africans (39.2 percent) than the other population groups. Unemployment rates for Whites, Asians and Coloureds were lower at 10.1, 13.2 and 27.0 percent compare to the Africans.
5.3 Employment
Between 2002 and 2009 the KwaZulu-Natal employment totaled an annual average of 1.6 million. Figure 5.4 illustrates the total employment by DMs. EThekwini district (904,091) has a higher employment, followed by uMgungundlovu district (181,250). UGu district had the fourth highest employment after eThekwini, uMgungundlovu and uThungulu in the province.
Figure 5.4 Total employment by district, average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
5.3.1 Formal employment
Between 2002 and 2009 Formal employment played a huge role in the province employment (73.5 percent). Community and household services were the leading sectors in the districts’ formal employment. Figure 5.5 clearly shows the formal employment within the districts, ranging between 64 percent and 76 percent of districts’ employment. UMzinyathi (76.7 percent), eThekwini (76.1 percent) and uMgungundlovu district (75.5 percent) has the higher formal employment in the province. These three districts had higher than provincial average formal employment. UGu (68.8 percent) held the second position district after Amajuba (64.2 percent) that has a lowest formal employment in the province.
Figure 5.5 Formal employment within districts (%), average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 5.6 show that the largest contributor to the formal employment within the district is the community services sector, contributing 23.9 percent of total formal employment followed by the agriculture (18.6%) and household sectors (17.1%). However, mining (0.75%) and electricity (0.76%) sectors showed an insignificant contribution towards the total formal employment. Education was the largest contributor to the Community Services performance, contributing a significant percentage of 11.6. Health and social work, public admin and defense together make a significant contribution to the Community services.
Figure 5.6 UGu formal employment by economic sector (%), average 2002-2009
Source: Global insight, 2009
Figure 5.7 Ugu Manufacturing and Agriculture employment by category, average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
5.3.2 Informal Employment
The main source of informal employment was mainly in Trade, Construction, Manufacturing, Community Services, Transport and Finance. Trade sector employs the most compared to other sectors. This is the case across all district municipalities. It can also be noted in figure 5.8 that the Manufacturing sector has a significant contribution to the informal employment in other districts such as Amajuba UThukela and iLembe.
Figure 5.8 Informal employment by district and main economic sector (%), average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 5.9 Ugu formal employment in Trade (%), average 2002-2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 5.9 shows that the formal employment is dominated by the hotels and restaurants (30.2%), wholesale and commission trade (21.3%), sale and repairs of motor vehicles (15.4%), sale of fuel and retail trade and repairs of goods (33.1%). Hotel and restaurants and retail trade and repairs of goods are the most dominant contributors towards the trade formal employment sector.
6. Land cover and use
In 2009 the land size of the KwaZulu-Natal was estimated at 93387 Km2. Ugu’s share of the total KwaZulu-Natal is 5.0 per cent. There is a large portion of land available for improved infrastructure within the district such as building of clinics, schools and roads or even used for agricultural activities. Figure 6.1 shows that there is small portion (22.4%) of land that is used for agriculture but this may be improved by encouraging more agricultural activities.
Figure 6.1 Ugu land use, 2009
Source: Global Insight; 2009
7. Development
Figure 7.1 Poverty; Gini coefficient, HDISource: Global Insight; 2009
HDI has been decreasing year on year; this decrease may be due to the high level of illiterate people within the district. The figure below shows that the level of illiteracy is high within the uGu compared to other districts such as Amajuba and uMgungundlovu. However it is not as high as compared to UMzinyathi (%) and UMkhanyakude (%).
Figure 7.2 Literacy rates by district, average (2002-2009)
Source: Global Insight; 2009
8. Crime
Crime rate is one of the most important concerns for the South African government. Figure 8.1 shows the average crime rate by category per 100000 people. There has been a decline in crime rate in 2002-2009 compared to 2002-2008 within the Ugu district municipality.
Figure 8.1 Ugu crime rate by category (per 100,000 people), average 2002
Source: Global Insight; 2009
Figure 8.1 show that one of the highest crime rates within the district is burglary at residential premises. This may be due to lack of employment in the district.
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