Security Notes
03 February – 03 March
1. Security Situation: There were important security related events virtually every day this reporting period. Regional demonstrations and the return of the King to Saudi Arabia were the dominate events. In the region this month President Mubarak was driven out of office by the continued mass demonstrations in Egypt, demonstrations against and a few in support of standing governments occurred in Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, Oman, Iran, Iraq and Libya. In several of the countries violence, some very bloody, accompanied these demonstrations. The situation in each nation is different, but the general spirit seeking change and more influence on their lives was common to all. In Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah returned after a three month absence to celebration and thanksgiving by his people. Accompanying his return was a lavish series of “gifts” to his people ranging from over $37 billion in social spending and social programs, forgiveness of numerous loans, and 15% raises for government employees. Following the regional trend there were small peaceful demonstrations in the oil producing east by some Shi'ite crowds and in Riyadh near the Ministry of the Interior small peaceful demonstrations by female relatives of incarcerated Al Qaeda suspects. Also in the Kingdom there was an announcement of the formation of a political party and several calls for reform including an open letter to the King seeking election of members of the advisory Shura Council, strong anti-corruption measures, more rights for females, and broader freedoms of expression. Social network sites have called for demonstrations to on 11 March “Day of Anger” and 20 March “Saudi Revolution.” Of course demonstrations and political parties are illegal in the Kingdom. There was a web posting by an Al Qaeda group calling on Saudis to oust the current monarchy and threatening attacks in the Kingdom. With all these significant events there were no attacks on westerners, no mass demonstrations and no violence reported in the Kingdom. There were no Warden Messages issued by the US Embassy in the Kingdom this month. All in all a very interesting month.
2. The following is a summary of events since the last notes were published (all public press articles):
a. 03 Feb 11: Al Qaeda Actively Seeking "Dirty" Bombs: Al-Qaeda is attempting to procure nuclear material and recruit rogue scientists in order to build a radioactive "dirty bomb," leaked documents published in the Telegraph newspaper. The cables, released by the WikiLeaks website, showed that security chiefs told a NATO meeting in January 2009 that Al-Qaeda was planning a programme of "dirty radioactive improvised explosive devices (IEDs)." The makeshift nuclear bombs, which could be used against soldiers fighting in Afghanistan, would contaminate the surrounding area for years to come. The leaked documents also revealed that Al-Qaeda papers found in 2007 convinced security officials that "greater advances" had been made in bio-terrorism than was previously feared. US security personnel were warned in 2008 that terrorists had "the technical competence to manufacture an explosive device beyond a mere dirty bomb." Also laid bare in the diplomatic cables are the attempts made to smuggle volatile materials as rogue organizations seek to get their hands on weapons-grade fuel. The memos detailed how a freight train on the Kazakhstan-Russia border was found to be carrying weapons-grade material while a "small-time" dealer in Lisbon tried to sell radioactive plates stolen from Chernobyl. In a separate leaked memo, which documented a January 2010 meeting between Janet Napolitano, US Secretary of Homeland Security, and European ministers, the German interior minister revealed his concerns over aircraft security. According to the cable, Thomas de Maiziere expressed his fear that terrorists could use "children's articles to introduce bombs into airplanes."
b. 03 Feb 11: Yemen President Says Won't Stand For Another Term: Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh, facing demands that he quit, he will freeze constitutional changes that would allow him to be president for life and put off a controversial April poll. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule," Saleh said during an emergency session of parliament and the consultative council ahead of a "day of rage" civil society groups and opposition leaders have called for. Saleh, who has been president for decades but whose term is due to end in 2013, urged a parliamentary opposition alliance known as the Common Forum to halt their street protests. Saleh's opponents also accuse the 68-year-old president of grooming his eldest son Ahmed, who heads the Republican Guard, an elite unit of the army, to succeed him. Tension has soared in Yemen after the parliament, dominated by his General People's Congress (GPC), voted in favor of a draft amendment of the constitution, which if passed, would allow Saleh to remain in office for life. Saleh, re-elected for a seven-year mandate in September 2006, announced in his address Wednesday to parliament, which was boycotted by the opposition, the "freezing of constitutional amendments" and said the elections would be postponed. Facing protests that have multiplied since the mid-January ouster of Tunisia's president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali following a wave of demonstrations there and a revolt in Egypt against the 30-year rule of President Hosni Mubarak, Saleh has taken measures aimed at soothing popular discontent.
c. 03 Feb 11: Unrest Clouds Outlook For Arms Sales To Mideast: Massive unrest spreading across the Middle East could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales the U.S. government is negotiating with countries in that region, at least in the short term. That could spell bad news for Lockheed Martin Corp, Boeing and other U.S. weapons makers at a time when they are counting on foreign sales to help offset flatter defense budgets at home and declines in European arms outlays. Pentagon officials say there is no formal "hold" on military sales to the Middle East as a result of escalating protests in Egypt, but analysts say they doubt Washington will be rushing to sign many new arms deals in the current climate. For U.S. companies that means some big-ticket foreign sales that have already been approved by Congress and the Pentagon may not show up in their 2011 order books as expected. Rob Stallard, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said underlying demand to modernize militaries across the Middle East will not disappear, and could even increase, as a result of the turmoil, but the current outlook for sales to the region was clearly more uncertain.
d. 05 Feb 11: Jordan's King Meets With Muslim Brotherhood: King Abdullah II, struggling to stave off growing public discontent, widened his political outreach and met with the Muslim Brotherhood for the first time in nearly a decade. He also asserted in a statement that he would fight corruption and foster a broad national dialogue. The statement from the royal court said, "The king reaffirmed in a meeting with a delegation from the Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front that it is important for them to work together to press political reform that will increase the role of citizens in decision making." A Muslim Brotherhood leader, Zaki Bani Rsheid, said earlier in an interview in his Amman office that the newly appointed prime minister, Marouf al-Bakhit, had offered the movement a role in his government, but that it had turned him down. "We refused because we want the prime minister to be elected, not appointed by the king, and we want real elections," he said. "We are willing to be a partner, but in a real government." The Muslim Brotherhood is estimated to have the support of 25 percent to 30 percent of Jordan's 6 million people. It was expected to lead modest demonstrations today calling for democratic steps, although others who had taken part in past weeks said they would hold off and evaluate the nature of the new government.
e. 05 Feb 11: Israeli Military Backs Egyptian Troops: Following situational assessments of deteriorating conditions on the streets of Cairo, Israeli military leaders are extending messages of support to their Egyptian counterparts and pledges to preserve the 31-year peace between the two countries. "Based on our assessment of events on the ground, it's our understanding that the Egyptian Army is operating responsibly and in a manner that contributes to stability and preserves future peace," Brig. Gen. Avi Benayahu, Israeli military spokesman, told Defense News. In a interview, Benayahu said assessments conducted in Tel Aviv in recent hours indicate that the Egyptian Army has been handling violence among demonstrators with restraint as it attempts to restore calm among peaceful demonstrators. "The Egyptian Army is working to preserve stability and is operating as much as possible in a manner of restraint," Benayahu said. He added, "Our peace with Egypt is a strategic asset of supreme importance to the government of Israel, the Israel Defense Forces, and I'm sure also to the people of Egypt. … Egypt is not an enemy of Israel, but rather a large and influential country with whom we hope our peaceful relations will ensure forever."
f. 06 Feb 11: Egypt Gas Pipeline Attacked; Israel, Jordan Flow Hit: Saboteurs blew up a pipeline that runs through Egypt's North Sinai, state television said, disrupting flows to Israel and Jordan, after Islamists called on militants to exploit the unrest that has rocked the government. State television quoted an official on Saturday as saying that the "situation is very dangerous and explosions were continuing from one spot to another" along the pipeline. "It is a big terrorist operation", a state TV reporter said. A security source in North Sinai said "foreign elements" targeted the branch of the pipe that supplies Jordan. A security source said the Egyptian army closed the main source of gas supplying the pipeline and were controlling the fire.
Television footage showed a tower of flame at the scene. Jordan said gas supplies from Egypt were expected to remain halted for a week until the pipeline was repaired. A Jordanian energy source told Reuters the kingdom had switched power stations to burning fuel oil and diesel as a precaution, after the cut-off of the Egyptian gas supplies that help generate most of Jordan's electricity. Israeli officials said Egyptian natural gas supplies to Israel were suspended. "We are looking into all the details but it is too soon to say how long supplies (from Egypt) will be affected," a source in the Israeli National Infrastructure Ministry told Reuters. The attack happened as demonstrations against President Hosni Mubarak entered their 12th day, with no sign of an end to the confrontation which has pitted the 82-year-old leader against thousands of anti-government protesters. "Saboteurs took advantage of the security situation and blew up the gas pipeline," a state television correspondent said.
g. 07 Feb 11: Defiant Al-Qaeda Suspects Go On Trial In Yemen: Ten alleged Al-Qaeda members shouted defiance when they went on trial over an April 2008 explosion near the offices of a Canadian energy company in the Yemeni capital Sanaa. The defendants, aged between 25 and 40 years of age, refused to answer questions from Judge Mohsen Alwan, who adjourned the hearing in order to interrogate them in pairs. It is alleged that the group was behind an explosion in the Hadda district of the capital on April 10, 2008 near the offices of Nexen Inc. Based in Calgary, Alberta, Nexen says it operates the biggest oil project in Yemen. "It's an illegitimate court. The end of the regime is near," shouted one of the defendants, Mohammed Ahmed Badr, from the dock. "We are jailed in an American prison and this is an American court." The defendants also alleged that they had been tortured while in detention. Besides the explosion, in which no-one was hurt, the defendants are accused in connection with attacks on the military, security services, a currency exchange bureau in the western port city of Al-Hudaydah, and the 21-day kidnapping of the son of a Yemeni tribal leader. Situated at the strategic southern tip of the Arabian peninsula, Yemen -- ancestral home of Osama bin Laden and scene of anti-government protests in recent days -- has been fighting Al-Qaeda insurgents in its south and east.
h. 08 Feb 11: Saudi Women Protest, Violating Tradition: Authorities in Saudi Arabia were angry several women protested outside a government office without permission and without their guardians, officials said. The women who gathered at the Interior Ministry Saturday did so in violation of tradition, which calls for women to be accompanied by their guardians, Gulf News reported Sunday. Gulf News said Saudi authorities are investigating how the women were able to travel to the capital without their guardians. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have regularly expressed concern about the state of human rights in the Arab nation. The women were relatives of the deputy commander of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, Saeed Al Shihri, Gulf News reported. They called for the release of members of the Shihri family. The Interior Ministry said only the Shariah judiciary could make a decision on their release. Saeed Al Shihri was one of the first detainees held at the Guantanamo Bay detention facility, and he was held in American custody nearly six years. He was on the Saudi list of the 85 most-wanted terrorists. He may have been involved in the kidnappings and murders of foreigners in Yemen. Yemen security forces reportedly captured him in January 2010.
i. 08 Feb 11: Saudi King Is Upset By Obama Abandonment Of Mubarak: The fate of Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak tops the agenda of the ongoing negotiations between the Saudis and the Americans in Morocco. In addition the two sides have been discussing the next phase in Egypt, especially the future of military weapons sold by Washington to Egypt and the option they will be used against Israel in the event a new regime "free of external pressures" will rise in Egypt. Arabic press sources reported that the talks are taking place in Morocco where Saudi King Abdullah, has been residing since returning from the USA. It is reported that the Saudi are looking for "honorable solution" to Mubarak. The importance of the talks forced the arrival of Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal. The host Morocco's King Mohammed VI has decided not to participate in these discussions and preferred to travel to Paris at the end of the week.