CAMELS – Annual Report 2003
Carbon Assimilation and Modelling of the EuropeanLand Surface (CAMELS)
Annual Report
(1-Nov-2002 to 31-Oct-2003)
Co-ordinator:
Dr Peter Cox
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Report prepared by:
Dr Richard Betts
Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Phone +44 1392 886877 Fax +44 1392 885681
Table of Contents
1Management and Resource Usage Summary
1.1Objectives
1.2Research Progress and Implications
1.2.1Scientific/Technical progress
1.2.2Time-Work Flowchart
1.2.3Milestones and deliverables
1.2.4Deviations and implications
1.2.5Co-ordination
1.2.6Difficulties encountered
2Executive Publishable Summary
2.1Publications (cumulative list)
2.1.1Peer Reviewed Articles
2.1.2Non refereed literature
3Work Package Reports
3.1Data Harmonization and Consolidation
3.1.1Objectives
3.1.2Methodology and scientific achievements
3.1.3Socio-economic relevance and policy implication
3.1.4Discussion and conclusion
3.1.5Plan and objectives for the next period
3.2Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis
3.2.1Objectives
3.2.2Methodology and scientific achievements
3.2.3Socio-economic relevance and policy implication
3.2.4Discussion and conclusion
3.2.5Plan and objectives for the next period
3.2.6References
4Technological Implementation Plan
1Management and Resource Usage Summary
1.1Objectives
The overall objective of the reporting period was to prepare the Terrestrial Ecosystem Models (TEMs) for use in a carbon data assimilation system. This required the preparation of data and detailed analysis of the models.
Specific objectives for Work packages (WP) 1, 2 and 5 are given in Table 1.1. WP2 and WP3 had no specific objectives for this reporting period as these WPs start in Month 12.
Table 1.1: Objectives for 1st 12-month reporting period, by work package (WP).
Work package / Objective / Purpose1 / Prepare consistent sets of site level data to drive and validate the terrestrial ecosystem models / Input to WP2
1 / Format the calibrated flask measurements of CO2 available from existing databases for use in WP3. / Input to WP3
1 / Prepare historical land-use and N-deposition maps for 1900-2000 along with a range of scenarios for 2000-2100 / Input to WP4
1 / Prepare a time dependent carbon inventory, based on stocks of C, for forestry, natural land and agriculture. / Validating results in WP3 and WP4
2 / Estimate parameter values of improved TEMs and their uncertainty bounds using site-specific data prepared in WP1. / Inform development of TEMs for WP3 and WP4
5 / Set up project website with a layered structure, suitable for use by both scientific experts and policymakers / Dissemination of results and other information
1.2Research Progress and Implications
1.2.1Scientific/Technical progress
Scientific and technical progress has largely proceeded to the planned schedule, with outputs of WP1 being provided to the other WPs as planned. WP2 is on track to meet its first deliverable in month 18. WP3 and WP4 began in month 12. In WP5, the project website has been set up on a server at the Met Office.
The updated CAMELS time-work flowchart is shown below Gantt chart.
Fig 1.1: Gantt chart of the planned schedule.
Work package / Months Elapsed6 / 12 / 18 / 24 / 30 / 36
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
1.2.2Time-Work Flowchart
The project milestones and deliverables for the reporting period are shown in section 1.3, Table 1.2, with scheduled and actual completion dates.
Table with comparison between planned and used of manpower and financial resources by Work Packages and partners
1.2.3Milestones and deliverables
Project milestones for this reporting period are shown in Table 1.2. Project deliverables for this reporting period are shown in Table 1.3.
Workpackage / Milestone / Due date / Date achievedWP1 / Select biome-specific sites for validation of TEMs / Month 3 / Month 3
WP1 / Complete preparation of biome-specific datasets for use by WP2. / Month 6 / Month 6
WP1 / Atmospheric CO2 dataset ready for WP3. / Month 9 / Month 12
WP1 / Historical land-use and nitrogen deposition datasets complete / Month 12 / Month 12 (land use data)
WP2 / Identification of key processes and estimation of parameter uncertainties. / Month 6 / Month 6
WP2 / First Monte-Carlo simulations with site data and validation. / Month 12 / Month 12
WP5 / Project website set up / Month 3 / Month 12
Table 1.2: Milestones obtained, with due dates and actual dates achieved.
Deliverable / Description / Due date / Date achievedD1.1 / Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs. / Month 3 / Month 3
D1.2 / Atmospheric CO2 dataset for use in nowcasting system / Month 9 / Month 12
D1.3 / Land-use and nitrogen deposition historical datasets (1900-2000). / Month 12 / Month 12 (land use)
D5.1 / Project website with a layered structure. / Month 3 / Month 12
Table 1.3: Project deliverables due in this reporting period, with due dates and actual dates achieved.
1.2.4Deviations and implications
Construction of project website (D5.1) was delayed due to internet security issues at the Met Office, delays in recruiting a new member of staff at Met Office, and unavailability of the server during the relocation of the Met Office to new premises. Impact on the project has been minor as the main purpose of the website is to disseminate results to the external community, and results and reports have only recently become available as scheduled. Although a secondary purpose of the website is to allow information exchange between project partners, this has taken place by email instead. The regular meetings between the project partners (3 whole-project meetings, one workpackage meeting and other smaller meetings) have ensured effective communication through the first 12 months of the project.
Although a historical land-use dataset was constructed as planned (D1.3), construction of the accompanying dataset on nitrogen deposition has been delayed due to difficulties in obtaining the appropriate data. However, the data are being obtained and no impact on the project is foreseen as the data are not yet required for the simulations in WP3.
1.2.5Co-ordination
Communication between the partners has been frequent. Day-to-day communication has been by email, and a number of project and work package meetings have taken place. Other meetings between CAMELS project partners have taken place when attending conferences.
1.2.5.1Project meetings
CAMELS Meeting 1. December 2002. Met Office, Bracknell, UK
CAMELS Meeting 2. March 2003. Lisbon, Portugal
CAMELS Meeting 3. November 2003. Alterra Green World Research, Netherlands
1.2.5.2Workpackage Meetings
WP2. May 2003, LMD, Paris, France
1.2.6Difficulties encountered
One difficulty at co-ordination level was the absence of the Project Manager on detached duty away from the home institute for the first four months of the project. The Project Coordinator took over project management responsibilities for this period.
A further difficulty was the relocation of the Co-ordinating Partner’s home institute (the Met Office). This potentially affected the availability of staff time. Potential problems were overcome by effective planning to ensure that project meetings and work for deliverables did not coincide with intensive phases of the relocation.
2Executive Publishable Summary
Contract n° / EVK2-2001-00261 / Reporting period: / 12 monthsTitle / Carbon Assimilation and Modelling of the European Land Surface (CAMELS)
Objectives:
To produce best estimates and uncertainty bounds for the contemporary and future land carbon sinks in Europe and elsewhere, isolating the effects of direct land-management in order to contribute to EC commitments under the Kyoto Protocol
To develop a prototype carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS) exploiting existing data sources (eg: flux measurements, carbon inventory data, satellite products) and the latest terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs), in order to produce operational estimates of “Kyoto sinks”.
Scientific achievements:
- Biome-specific datasets of data to drive and validate Terrestrial Ecosystem Models (TEMs) were produced for 20 sites across the globe.
- A dataset global mean CO2 concentrations from 1800 to 2000 was constructed from the atmospheric records at Mauna Loa and the South Pole and the ice core records at Law Dome, Antarctica.
- A dataset of contemporary CO2 measurements across Europe was prepared for use in the CAMELS nowcasting system.
- Datasets of agricultural land use from were integrated and processed to produce a self-consistent, spatially-explicit historical reconstruction of croplands and pasture from 1700 to 1990.
- Inventory datasets of changes in European land carbon from 1950 to the present-day were constructed.
- Key processes in TEMs were identified, and uncertainties in the parameters specified for each biome were estimated
- First Monte-Carlo simulations of TEMs were carried out using site-specific data.
The datasets contructed in Workpackage 1 will be primary inputs to models used to reconstruct the 20th Century and contemporary carbon budgets of the European land surface. As such they will assist EU countries in meeting their obligations to reduce and monitor total carbon emissions as specified in the Kyoto Protocol. Specifically, they will provide the most authoritative information on sources and sinks of CO2 on the European land surface.
Conclusions:
Data for driving TEMs has been obtained for a wide range of biomes, but the geographical ranges of these are limited. Forests in the northern hemisphere, particularly North America and Europe, are well-represented, while those in Asia, Africa and South America are less well represented. Except in North America, data on non-forest ecosystems are represented by fewer sites and with shorter timeseries.
Forest inventory and agricultural production data can beused to prepare maps of the changes in European carbon stocks between 1960 and 1990. In a limited number of countries, reconstructions back to 1900 are possible.
Keywords:
Carbon sinks, Kyoto Protocol, CO2 measurements, terrestrial ecosystem models
2.1Publications (cumulative list)
2.1.1Peer Reviewed Articles
Authors / Date / Title / Journal / ReferenceJanssens, I.A., A. Freibauer, P. Ciais, P. Smith, G-J.Nabuurs, G. Folberth, B. Schlamadinger, R.W.A.Hutjes, R.Ceulemans, E-D. Schulze, R. Valentini, A J. Dolman / 2003 / Europe’s terrestrial biosphere absorbs 7 to 12% of European Anthropogenic CO2 emissions / Science / Vol 30,pp1538-1542
Essery R.L.H., Best M.J., Betts R.A., Cox P.M. & Taylor C.M., 2003. / 2003 / Explicit representation of sub-grid heterogeneity in a GCM land-surface scheme. / J. Hydrometeorol. / 4, 530-543
Nabuurs, G-J / 2003 / Current consequences of past actions: How to separate direct fom indirect / SCOPE (Field et al, Eds) / In press
Harris P.P, Huntingford C., Cox P.M., Gash J.H.C, Malhi Y / 2004 / Effect of soil moisture on canopy conductance of Amazonian rainforest. / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / In press
Harris P.P, Huntingford C., Gash J.H.C., Hodnett M., Cox P.M., Malhi Y.,Araujo, A.C., / 2004 / Calibration of a land-surface model using data fromprimary forest sites in Amazonia. / Theoretical and Applied Climatology / In press
2.1.2Non refereed literature
Authors / Editors / Date / Title / Event / TypeJens Kattge, Wolfgang Knorr.. / 2003 / A Bayesian approach to estimating parameters and uncertainties in ecosystem models from experimental data. / International Conference on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg / poster
3Work Package Reports
3.1Data Harmonization and Consolidation
Lead Contractor: Alterra
Contributors for this reporting period: Alterra, Met Office, LSCE, EFI
3.1.1Objectives
The objectives of this workpackage is to provide each of the datasets required by WP2, WP3 and WP4:
- Compile datasets from selected suitable sites for validation of the TEMs from the full list of those involved in the CARBOEUROPE cluster and related projects.
- Format existing datasets of historical land-use and nitrogen deposition for the period 1900-2000 for use in WP3.
- Prepare maps of the changes of European carbon stocks between 1960 and 1990, using existing data from forest inventories and agricultural production.
- Prepare satellite datasets of landcover, fAPAR and stand density/canopy structure for Europe, and other key forest areas.
These objectives are associated to the followingdeliverables foreseen for the month indicated:
D1.1 Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs. (month 9)
D1.2 Atmospheric CO2 dataset for use in nowcasting system (month 9)
D1.3 Land-use and nitrogen deposition historical datasets (1900-2000) (month 12)
D1.4 Datasets of changes in European land carbon (month 18)
D1.5 Datasets of fAPAR for Europe (month 18)
Deliverables 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 (landuse part) have been completed though updates/extensions are foreseen (see next section). Compilation of Nitrogen deposition data (D1.3) is currently not persued as at this moment none of the models using half-hourly or hourly timesteps is able to use nitrogen deposition. Deliverable 1.4 and 1.5 are in progress.
3.1.2Methodology and scientific achievements
3.1.2.1Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs (Alterra and LSCE)
The main objective of this task is to provide harmonised and consolidated biome specific datasets to drive, calibrate and validate the models in WP2. We started with sites with easily accessible, good quality data that had already been used with one or more of the models. These datasets are now ready and are being used to carry out the first model optimisations (see section on WP2). It will be extended with more years of data and additional sites to cover all global PFT’s with as broad a spectrum of sites as possible, varying in soil types, dominant plant species and geographical location (within the limits of the climate zone).
Twenty site datasets have been prepared from publicly available data (Fluxnet, Carbodata). The length of the datasets ranges from one growing season (Upad) to seven years (Harvard Forest). All data sets are from the Northern Hemisphere (Europe, US or Canada) and most are from forests (figure 3.1a). Forests have also the longest running time series. The few datasets from non-forested flux sites all are from North-America.
In Europe, human pressure on land has long since converted the most fertile soils into agricultural land or pastures. Poorer, sandy soils were left for forests. The past strong focus of CARBOEUROPE to forested sites is thus reflected in a high representation of sandy soils within the European sites and in the datasets as a whole (Figure 3.1b).
Before the datasets were put together an inventory was made of model needs. A distinction was made between indispensable (meteorological, vegetation or soil) data, other information that was not crucial but could be used if available, and measurements that could be used to compare models output to for optimisation and validation.
Figure 3.1: Lefthand plot: location of flux sites in current data set. Righthand plot: distribution of flux sites in current data set over soil texture types
All three of the CAMELS TEMs need incoming shortwave radiation, average temperature, vapour pressure deficit, air CO2 concentration and precipitation over each time interval. Apart from these, all have further needs for meteorological input, covering the total set of standard meteorological measurements in CARBOEUROPE. Net and longwave radiation are the only variables outside the standard CARBOEUROPE measurements. Only these mandatory input data were gap-filled. Gap-filling was done using meteorological data from NCDC (8000 stations worldwide) and ERA15 data following a procedure developed by Nicholas Viovy (LSCE-partner). No attempt was made to estimate errors made by gap-filling, but gap-filled meteorological data were flagged in the final dataset. All driving variables were given along with estimated errors (see below).
Soil data needs are limited to soil type and texture, but even this information is often unavailable. Information about the vegetation (apart from the PFT class) is limited to LAI, which is needed and provided on a seasonal basis. Optionally, the models can use further information about plant and soil carbon pools.
All 3 TEMs were developed for their output to be compared against NEE, latent heat flux and sensible heat flux, and optionally ground heat flux. MOSES and ORCHIDEE can also use calculated radiation terms or plant carbon pools and LAI for that purpose. BETHY and ORCHIDEE can also use litter carbon. Variables that are used for model output comparison were not gap-filled, and all gap-filling that had occurred by others was removed. These variables were given along with preliminary estimated errors.
For the optimisation methods used in WP2 it is imperative to give a-priori estimates of uncertainties of driving and validation data. These have also been provided. A distinction must be made between stochastic errors, that may (partially) cancel out when averaged over longer that half-hourly time scales, and systematic errors that do not diminish with averaging. Rough estimates of potential uncertainty in eddy correlation flux measurements were made. This analysis is based upon various studies showing sensitivity of fluxes to treatment and calculation method as well as variation of representativity. The estimates are assuming ignorance of the user (modeller) about maintenance conditions, quality control and field conditions at the data source. In almost all individual cases the uncertainties are likely to be much smaller and only in some cases a few sources of error may be larger.
All meteorological and flux data were converted to NetCDF format. Version numbers of all datasets are included. Dataset are available (CAMELS partners only for now) from the following ftp address ftp.bgc-jena.mpg.de
3.1.2.2Atmospheric CO2 dataset (LSCE)
The CO2 dataset consists of two parts:
- An historical dataset of global mean CO2 to enable models to be run from 1800-present (WP3)
- A contemporary dataset of 4-dimensional CO2 fieldsfor use in the CCDAS (WP4).
The historical CO2 forcing is provided (following Rayner and Trudinger, CSIRO) as annual mean concentration taken from a spline fit to the ice core record from Law Dome Antarctica (Etheridge et al. 1996) and a combined atmospheric record from the South Pole (“spo”) and Mauna Loa (“mlo”) records of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography (Keeling et al. 1995). The atmospheric record is calculated as a weighted sum (0.75<mlo + 0.25*spo) which is a good fit to the global mean marine boundary layer value from the Globalview compilation when both records overlap. The Law Dome values have been adjusted to bring both records onto the same calibration scale. The spline uses different weightings for different periods to account for varying data density (see Enting 1987 for details of the smoothing spline algorithm). Throughout it is arranged to preserve decadal-scale variability but suppress shorter-term variations. Before 1960 (in the period covered by the ice core measurements) it produces a 50% attenuation at frequencies less than about 20 years, during the period of the atmospheric record this frequency cut-off drops to about 12 years. See figure 3.2