Risks of Cancer Associated with Smoking: Data from the New Zealand Cancertrends Study

Supplemental Digital Content Table 2: Regression output – Gamma coefficients (standard errors) from regression models predicting excess cancer costs by time preceding and post-diagnosis, for multiple cancers

Table footnotes:

Outliers were removed, and each cancer site had its own model fitted, as per description in the Methods in the main paper.

The dependent variable is excess costs per person per month in 2011 inflation-adjusted NZ$.

Age centered on 62.5 years, and divided by 10. Thus a value of 0 for age corresponds to the mid-point of the 60-64 year old age group. A value of +2 corresponds to 82.5 years, etc.

Year is centered on 2011, as BODE3 models use 2011 as the base year.

Age2 = age squared. Age3 = age cubed. s.e. = standard error.

How to use the regression equations:

These regression coefficients can be used to estimate the cost due to a range of cancers, by phase of the cancer management pathway, sex and age. For example, to estimate the cost due to brain cancer (i.e. excess cost) 1-5 months post diagnosis, and not in the last year of life, in 2011 for a 60-64 (i.e. 62.5 yrs) year old male, then:

-  Both -male and 60-64 years of age are reference categories, and the age, age×phase interactions and gender coefficients can be ignored.

-  The expected value of the excess cost = exp(5.5496+3.1818) = $6,194.

This is close to the value of $5,970 for a 65 year old male in Figure 2 (c.f. 62.5 years as mid-point of 60-64 year old age range calculated above). To generate the value for a 65 year old, the equation is more complex due to a non-zero value of age centered, i.e. +0.25 as age was centered on 62.5 and then divided by 10 (i.e. 0.25 = (65-62.5)/10). The expected value using the coefficients below is:

exp(5.5496 + 0.25×-0.3221+ 0.252×-0.0844+ 0.253×-0.0135 + 3.1818+ 0.25×0.1992) = $5974.1 ≈ $5,970 (allowing for rounding).

The cost of any combination of age, sex and phase can be likewise derived.

/ First adult cancer / Lip, mouth & pharynx / Esophagus / Stomach / Colon, rectum, sigmoid, anus / C18- Colon / C19- Rectosigmoid junction / C20- Rectum /
Parameter / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. /
Intercept / 4.9158 / 0.0344 / 5.598 / 0.0618 / 5.8254 / 0.1455 / 5.8695 / 0.0965 / 5.3775 / 0.0465 / 5.1404 / 0.0595 / 5.4235 / 0.1031 / 5.5941 / 0.0576
Females / 0.1304 / 0.0248 / 0.0447 / 0.0523 / -0.1299 / 0.0734 / 0.3174 / 0.0657 / -0.1723 / 0.0304 / -0.1484 / 0.0375 / 0.1055 / 0.0739 / -0.0873 / 0.0408
Year / 0.1289 / 0.009 / 0.1444 / 0.0178 / 0.0979 / 0.0243 / 0.1209 / 0.022 / 0.1476 / 0.0111 / 0.1434 / 0.0136 / 0.2382 / 0.027 / 0.1538 / 0.0147
Age / -0.2096 / 0.0198 / 0.1018 / 0.0327 / 0.0852 / 0.1195 / -0.1038 / 0.0314 / -0.1958 / 0.0241 / -0.2071 / 0.0303 / -0.3144 / 0.0524 / -0.1204 / 0.0316
Age2 / -0.02 / 0.0053 / -0.0494 / 0.0094 / . / . / -0.0785 / 0.0109 / -0.0294 / 0.0069 / -0.0301 / 0.0084 / . / . / . / .
Age3 / -0.009 / 0.0028 / -0.0096 / 0.0027 / . / . / -0.0069 / 0.0032 / . / . / . / . / . / . / . / .
6-11 Pre Diag / -2.0016 / 0.0703 / -0.5941 / 0.1329 / -1.9693 / 0.2091 / -0.6818 / 0.1557 / -1.33 / 0.0922 / -0.4921 / 0.1207 / -2.1396 / 0.2296 / -1.7775 / 0.1172
1-5 Pre / -0.6987 / 0.0538 / -0.7405 / 0.1028 / -1.0933 / 0.1916 / -0.1264 / 0.1359 / -0.3333 / 0.0732 / -0.1152 / 0.0911 / -0.6217 / 0.1726 / -0.5356 / 0.0904
<1 Pre / 2.067 / 0.054 / 1.6114 / 0.1028 / 1.2377 / 0.2052 / 1.9923 / 0.139 / 2.5255 / 0.0727 / 2.9614 / 0.0922 / 2.4681 / 0.1772 / 1.6739 / 0.0895
<1 Post Diag / 3.7148 / 0.0521 / 3.6544 / 0.0991 / 2.7843 / 0.2022 / 3.4273 / 0.1374 / 4.1743 / 0.0712 / 4.5423 / 0.0912 / 4.2221 / 0.1708 / 3.4822 / 0.0874
1-5 Post / 2.9031 / 0.0466 / 3.1483 / 0.0887 / 2.9645 / 0.1997 / 2.7757 / 0.1272 / 3.1808 / 0.0656 / 3.0304 / 0.0845 / 3.2737 / 0.1567 / 3.3775 / 0.0801
6-11 Post / 1.7832 / 0.0464 / 1.1823 / 0.0893 / 1.727 / 0.2096 / 1.4606 / 0.1339 / 2.0035 / 0.0677 / 1.8671 / 0.0881 / 2.1374 / 0.1556 / 2.2332 / 0.0815
12-23 Post / 0.8049 / 0.0425 / 0.7236 / 0.0824 / 0.6859 / 0.2075 / 0.7202 / 0.1285 / 1.0047 / 0.0627 / 0.9715 / 0.082 / 1.19 / 0.1429 / 1.1009 / 0.0769
24+ Post / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
6-11 Pre Dth / 2.8422 / 0.0781 / 2.7808 / 0.1505 / 1.9209 / 0.1818 / 1.8555 / 0.1228 / 2.8168 / 0.1008 / 2.9403 / 0.1276 / 3.072 / 0.2676 / 2.653 / 0.1296
1-5 Pre Dth / 3.3594 / 0.0735 / 3.0295 / 0.144 / 2.5342 / 0.177 / 2.3988 / 0.1147 / 3.1786 / 0.0966 / 3.3636 / 0.122 / 3.2068 / 0.239 / 2.9732 / 0.1286
<1 Pre Dth / 4.1848 / 0.0819 / 3.7328 / 0.1676 / 3.1125 / 0.1869 / 3.2936 / 0.1217 / 3.8599 / 0.1072 / 4.0948 / 0.1353 / 3.7903 / 0.2651 / 3.5972 / 0.1426
Age×6-11 Pre Diag / 0.0031 / 0.0426 / 0.003 / 0.0842 / 0.052 / 0.1545 / . / . / 0.3551 / 0.0601 / 0.3211 / 0.0838 / 0.6006 / 0.1693 / 0.5356 / 0.0866
Age×1-5 Pre / 0.0794 / 0.0362 / 0.1259 / 0.0664 / -0.3113 / 0.1493 / . / . / 0.1164 / 0.0468 / 0.2641 / 0.0547 / 0.3359 / 0.1077 / -0.0744 / 0.0636
Age×<1 Pre / 0.2862 / 0.0356 / -0.1586 / 0.0673 / 0.0114 / 0.1605 / . / . / 0.2724 / 0.0464 / 0.248 / 0.057 / 0.3123 / 0.1261 / 0.236 / 0.0615
Age×<1 Post Diag / 0.2527 / 0.0356 / -0.0931 / 0.0619 / -0.1846 / 0.1571 / . / . / 0.2324 / 0.047 / 0.2176 / 0.0589 / 0.3957 / 0.1283 / 0.1391 / 0.0622
Age×1-5 Post / 0.1062 / 0.0345 / -0.1726 / 0.0622 / -0.4202 / 0.1693 / . / . / 0.059 / 0.0457 / 0.0882 / 0.057 / 0.2346 / 0.1207 / 0.0532 / 0.0599
Age×6-11 Post / -0.0071 / 0.0354 / -0.2391 / 0.0635 / -0.3896 / 0.1801 / . / . / -0.2048 / 0.0498 / -0.22 / 0.0627 / -0.0575 / 0.1202 / -0.144 / 0.0643
Age×12-23 Post / 0.0192 / 0.0308 / -0.1672 / 0.0518 / -0.2066 / 0.1708 / . / . / -0.1917 / 0.0441 / -0.274 / 0.0564 / -0.1662 / 0.11 / -0.0905 / 0.0575
Age×24+ Post / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / . / . / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Age×6-11 Pre Dth / -0.1029 / 0.0533 / -0.2391 / 0.1028 / -0.4646 / 0.1449 / . / . / -0.1283 / 0.0661 / -0.077 / 0.0804 / -0.0797 / 0.2096 / -0.2688 / 0.0927
Age×1-5 Pre Dth / -0.0325 / 0.0487 / -0.2182 / 0.0935 / -0.3731 / 0.141 / . / . / -0.0843 / 0.0615 / -0.0729 / 0.0755 / 0.0003 / 0.162 / -0.189 / 0.0898
Age×<1 Pre Dth / 0.0962 / 0.0526 / -0.2241 / 0.1129 / -0.1936 / 0.1442 / . / . / 0.1151 / 0.0654 / 0.1253 / 0.0803 / 0.3128 / 0.1779 / -0.0423 / 0.096
/ C21- Anus and Anus Canal / Liver / Gallbladder / Pancreas / Larynx / Lung, trachea, bronchus / Bone and connective / Melanoma /
Parameter / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. /
Intercept / 6.5389 / 0.1427 / 6.5184 / 0.1028 / 5.8377 / 0.1769 / 5.6653 / 0.1522 / 5.8709 / 0.1028 / 5.7913 / 0.0784 / 5.1276 / 0.1333 / 2.9525 / 0.0757
Females / -0.3684 / 0.1017 / 0.0158 / 0.0677 / -0.4231 / 0.0982 / 0.0476 / 0.0601 / -0.0948 / 0.1189 / -0.0381 / 0.0353 / 0.0576 / 0.0968 / -0.3891 / 0.0567
Year / 0.1795 / 0.0336 / 0.0921 / 0.0213 / 0.0527 / 0.0366 / 0.0808 / 0.0217 / 0.219 / 0.0295 / 0.1065 / 0.0127 / 0.1432 / 0.0346 / 0.2934 / 0.0217
Age / -0.2413 / 0.0672 / -0.1513 / 0.074 / -0.0456 / 0.0726 / -0.5993 / 0.115 / -0.1669 / 0.0357 / -0.2219 / 0.0602 / -0.052 / 0.045 / 0.6736 / 0.044
Age2 / . / . / -0.0603 / 0.0137 / -0.0402 / 0.0318 / -0.0642 / 0.0125 / -0.0405 / 0.0151 / -0.0602 / 0.0091 / 0.045 / 0.0099 / 0.1273 / 0.0108
Age3 / . / . / -0.0105 / 0.003 / -0.0253 / 0.0152 / -0.0153 / 0.0044 / . / . / -0.0114 / 0.0037 / . / . / -0.0409 / 0.0053
6-11 Pre Diag / -1.8345 / 0.248 / -0.8716 / 0.1546 / -0.0985 / 0.2391 / -0.984 / 0.1954 / -0.7187 / 0.2194 / -0.5937 / 0.1069 / -4.6072 / 0.5218 / 0.8942 / 0.1476
1-5 Pre / -0.6778 / 0.1986 / -0.0171 / 0.1378 / 0.3707 / 0.2116 / 0.2286 / 0.1884 / -0.0144 / 0.1647 / 0.1623 / 0.098 / 0.3854 / 0.3279 / 0.0389 / 0.1135
<1 Pre / 1.1461 / 0.1922 / 1.4486 / 0.1432 / 2.5937 / 0.2169 / 2.5099 / 0.2014 / 1.8334 / 0.1649 / 2.1359 / 0.1028 / 2.9703 / 0.3073 / 2.2016 / 0.115
<1 Post Diag / 2.7393 / 0.1863 / 3.0286 / 0.1407 / 3.9886 / 0.2111 / 3.9421 / 0.1983 / 3.9048 / 0.1586 / 3.2645 / 0.1021 / 4.1008 / 0.2911 / 4.2442 / 0.1115
1-5 Post / 2.5032 / 0.1657 / 1.134 / 0.1347 / 2.4884 / 0.2047 / 2.269 / 0.1927 / 3.2305 / 0.1438 / 2.4214 / 0.0999 / 2.9429 / 0.2665 / 3.4396 / 0.0988
6-11 Post / 0.9057 / 0.1713 / 0.5875 / 0.1389 / 1.2592 / 0.2253 / 1.3357 / 0.2041 / 1.8529 / 0.1464 / 1.0986 / 0.1049 / 1.6831 / 0.2726 / 1.6671 / 0.0962
12-23 Post / 0.2921 / 0.1573 / 0.1342 / 0.1399 / 0.2887 / 0.2268 / 0.8601 / 0.2073 / 1.1189 / 0.1352 / 0.6021 / 0.1058 / 0.97 / 0.2492 / 1.3005 / 0.0879
24+ Post / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
6-11 Pre Dth / 2.0441 / 0.2771 / 0.7541 / 0.1265 / 1.758 / 0.202 / 1.7511 / 0.1687 / 2.7252 / 0.2336 / 1.6551 / 0.0899 / 2.1633 / 0.3818 / 4.5586 / 0.2826
1-5 Pre Dth / 2.2711 / 0.2572 / 1.2163 / 0.1182 / 2.53 / 0.1903 / 2.4101 / 0.162 / 3.0182 / 0.2293 / 2.3695 / 0.086 / 2.945 / 0.3409 / 5.4066 / 0.2796
<1 Pre Dth / 2.109 / 0.3142 / 2.3606 / 0.1224 / 3.5058 / 0.1995 / 3.2945 / 0.1653 / 3.8605 / 0.2521 / 3.3185 / 0.0893 / 3.9738 / 0.3726 / 6.2463 / 0.3205
Age×6-11 Pre Diag / 0.5545 / 0.1664 / 0.2224 / 0.1203 / . / . / 0.3382 / 0.1506 / . / . / 0.243 / 0.085 / -0.3001 / 0.1427 / -0.1184 / 0.0845
Age×1-5 Pre / 0.0644 / 0.1515 / 0.1016 / 0.1043 / . / . / 0.5564 / 0.1456 / . / . / 0.3222 / 0.0793 / 0.5132 / 0.0938 / -0.1194 / 0.0659
Age×<1 Pre / 0.2101 / 0.1441 / 0.0721 / 0.0985 / . / . / 0.6816 / 0.1488 / . / . / 0.1835 / 0.0802 / 0.2297 / 0.0878 / -0.3519 / 0.0849
Age×<1 Post Diag / 0.1903 / 0.1404 / 0.0586 / 0.1063 / . / . / 0.5029 / 0.1484 / . / . / 0.16 / 0.0808 / 0.1452 / 0.0835 / -0.3253 / 0.0763
Age×1-5 Post / 0.1232 / 0.129 / -0.0527 / 0.0997 / . / . / 0.3768 / 0.1512 / . / . / 0.0405 / 0.0842 / -0.0939 / 0.078 / -0.3457 / 0.0687
Age×6-11 Post / 0.3662 / 0.1268 / -0.156 / 0.1101 / . / . / 0.3849 / 0.1549 / . / . / 0.0376 / 0.0881 / -0.1883 / 0.0825 / -0.0786 / 0.0607
Age×12-23 Post / -0.0823 / 0.1177 / -0.067 / 0.1142 / . / . / 0.408 / 0.1549 / . / . / 0.1019 / 0.089 / -0.0295 / 0.0757 / -0.0919 / 0.0517
Age×24+ Post / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / . / . / 0 / 0 / . / . / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Age×6-11 Pre Dth / -0.1428 / 0.2163 / 0.069 / 0.0957 / . / . / 0.3117 / 0.1321 / . / . / 0.0111 / 0.073 / -0.1308 / 0.1174 / -0.72 / 0.2023
Age×1-5 Pre Dth / -0.0204 / 0.1684 / 0.1114 / 0.0907 / . / . / 0.4553 / 0.1259 / . / . / 0.0292 / 0.0698 / 0.0497 / 0.1173 / -0.8153 / 0.1935
Age×<1 Pre Dth / 0.3171 / 0.2116 / 0.1279 / 0.0917 / . / . / 0.6087 / 0.1271 / . / . / 0.1773 / 0.0714 / 0.1303 / 0.1318 / -0.7231 / 0.2178
/ Breast / Cervix / Uterus / Ovary / Prostate / Testis † / Kidney and other urinary / Bladder /
Parameter / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. / Est. / s.e. /
Intercept / 4.8648 / 0.0461 / 4.991 / 0.1287 / 4.924 / 0.0837 / 5.234 / 0.0768 / 3.3791 / 0.0806 / 4.0444 / 0.2037 / 5.8627 / 0.0614 / 5.2555 / 0.0732
Females / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / . / . / -0.153 / 0.0499 / -0.1206 / 0.0564
Year / 0.1586 / 0.0152 / 0.1748 / 0.032 / 0.1664 / 0.0238 / 0.1675 / 0.0217 / 0.1922 / 0.0201 / 0.0702 / 0.0345 / 0.1147 / 0.0169 / 0.2219 / 0.0188
Age / -0.4216 / 0.0228 / -0.09 / 0.0534 / -0.4155 / 0.0497 / 0.0552 / 0.0442 / 0.2419 / 0.0638 / -0.2175 / 0.0519 / -0.0549 / 0.0327 / 0.212 / 0.0415
Age2 / . / . / . / . / 0.021 / 0.0143 / -0.0635 / 0.012 / 0.3508 / 0.0453 / . / . / -0.0309 / 0.0109 / -0.0327 / 0.0108
Age3 / . / . / . / . / . / . / -0.0081 / 0.0039 / -0.1137 / 0.0156 / . / . / -0.0055 / 0.0024 / -0.0138 / 0.0041
6-11 Pre Diag / -1.4877 / 0.128 / -0.6446 / 0.2798 / -0.9504 / 0.1608 / -1.2996 / 0.1645 / -2.2405 / 0.1698 / -1.611 / 0.2435 / -0.7414 / 0.1243 / -0.3295 / 0.176
1-5 Pre / -1.9828 / 0.0974 / -0.5277 / 0.2244 / -0.1983 / 0.1278 / -0.4636 / 0.1322 / -1.3934 / 0.1422 / -0.9629 / 0.1888 / 0.3292 / 0.0986 / -0.3282 / 0.1425
<1 Pre / 0.7868 / 0.0943 / 1.6406 / 0.2429 / 2.0539 / 0.126 / 2.7717 / 0.1329 / 1.5135 / 0.1342 / 2.6444 / 0.188 / 1.8234 / 0.0981 / 2.2406 / 0.1488
<1 Post Diag / 3.391 / 0.0901 / 3.3149 / 0.2197 / 3.4966 / 0.1221 / 4.3428 / 0.1292 / 3.579 / 0.1328 / 3.7786 / 0.1797 / 3.6367 / 0.0955 / 3.5712 / 0.1415
1-5 Post / 3.125 / 0.0794 / 3.4519 / 0.2008 / 3.0918 / 0.1105 / 2.9161 / 0.1183 / 3.561 / 0.1256 / 2.9352 / 0.1669 / 1.4022 / 0.0873 / 3.157 / 0.1366
6-11 Post / 2.1467 / 0.0778 / 1.6342 / 0.1982 / 1.2861 / 0.1093 / 1.3979 / 0.1228 / 2.9664 / 0.1285 / 1.8024 / 0.1629 / 0.6577 / 0.0881 / 2.0472 / 0.1322
12-23 Post / 0.8925 / 0.0692 / 1.1846 / 0.1787 / 0.2259 / 0.1017 / 1.1243 / 0.1151 / 1.3016 / 0.1156 / 0.9997 / 0.1521 / 0.3374 / 0.0811 / 1.065 / 0.124
24+ Post / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0 / 0
6-11 Pre Dth / 2.9744 / 0.1635 / 2.8887 / 0.2644 / 2.7296 / 0.2502 / 2.8016 / 0.1314 / 4.3391 / 0.4023 / 3.8541 / 1.4547 / 1.7096 / 0.1599 / 3.153 / 0.197
1-5 Pre Dth / 3.3909 / 0.1606 / 3.2477 / 0.2515 / 3.404 / 0.2346 / 3.2419 / 0.1277 / 5.0404 / 0.3863 / 4.1365 / 0.7605 / 2.5142 / 0.149 / 3.6972 / 0.1845
<1 Pre Dth / 4.1344 / 0.1853 / 4.2744 / 0.2758 / 4.2544 / 0.2768 / 4.0028 / 0.1404 / 5.6322 / 0.4344 / 4.9631 / 1.2187 / 3.1734 / 0.1677 / 4.342 / 0.2096
Age×6-11 Pre Diag / 0.388 / 0.0721 / 0.5151 / 0.1279 / -0.046 / 0.1345 / -0.5315 / 0.1453 / 0.1403 / 0.1259 / . / . / 0.0776 / 0.0729 / -0.134 / 0.0988
Age×1-5 Pre / 0.3851 / 0.0608 / 0.0348 / 0.1103 / 0.1652 / 0.0953 / -0.2964 / 0.0765 / 0.7135 / 0.0934 / . / . / 0.0096 / 0.0697 / 0.1779 / 0.0828
Age×<1 Pre / 0.5892 / 0.058 / 0.2128 / 0.1265 / 0.2946 / 0.0991 / -0.1377 / 0.0782 / 0.3214 / 0.1063 / . / . / 0.028 / 0.0587 / -0.096 / 0.0931
Age×<1 Post Diag / 0.4252 / 0.0613 / 0.2039 / 0.1078 / 0.386 / 0.098 / -0.0795 / 0.0772 / 0.1667 / 0.1146 / . / . / 0.0367 / 0.0608 / -0.0878 / 0.0866