PSS and CSS Long Term Cost Report 2008

PSS and CSS Long Term Cost Report 2008

A Report on the long term cost of

the Public Sector Superannuation

Scheme and the Commonwealth

Superannuation Scheme

Prepared by Mercer (Australia) Pty Ltd using data as at 30 June 2008

ISBN 0 9758173 5 3

Department of Finance and Deregulation
Financial Management Group

This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the Commonwealth. Requests and inquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the

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or posted at

Acknowledgements

Photographs taken by Steve Keough, Steve Keough Photography

Contents

1.Executive Summary4

2.Introduction10

3.The PSS and CSS12

4.Membership and Data15

5.Valuation Methodology18

6.Assumptions22

7.Projected Employer Costs28

8.Unfunded Liability31

9.Notional Employer Contribution Rates36

Appendix A: Summary of Benefit Provisions39

Appendix B: Detailed Assumptions46

one Executive Summary

We are pleased to present this report on the actuarial investigation of the long term costs of the Public Sector Superannuation Scheme (PSS) and the Commonwealth Superannuation Scheme (CSS) prepared at the request of the Department of Finance and Deregulation. This investigation has been carried out based on membership data as at 30 June 2008.

The previous actuarial investigation of the long term costs of the PSS and CSS was carried out by Mercer (Australia) (Mercer), formerly known as Mercer Human Resource Consulting in 2005 based on data as at 30 June 2005.

Results Produced in this Report

1.1The main aim of this investigation is to identify the long-term cost of the PSS and CSS that will be charged to the Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF). The long-term cost has been estimated in three ways:

• Projected Employer Costs

We have projected the outlay in respect of PSS and CSS benefits in each of the next 40 years and expressed these amounts as a percentage of projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• Unfunded Liability

We have estimated the Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS as at 30 June 2008. The Unfunded Liability represents an estimate of the present value of the total accrued superannuation liabilities of the Australian Government in respect of service up to 30 June 2008 that will be charged to the CRF.

• Notional Employer Contribution Rates

These are the employer contribution rates necessary to ensure that employer-financed benefits from the PSS and CSS would remain fully funded in three years time, if they were fully funded now. The contribution rates are reduced to allow for any additional lump sums paid in the previous three years under the expanded agency assessment framework.

Results – Projected Employer Costs

1.2The projected Employer Costs are expected to reduce as a percentage of projected GDP from 0.28% in the year ending 30 June 2009 to 0.11% in the year ending 30 June 2048.

Results – Unfunded Liability

1.3 The accrued Unfunded Liability is summarised in the following table:

Accrued Unfunded Liability ($ billions)
Report as at / PSS / CSS / Combined
30 June 1999 / 5.7 / 40.3 / 46.0
30 June 2002 / 9.1 / 49.3 / 58.4
30 June 2005 / 13.8 / 50.6 / 64.4
30 June 2008 / 20.9 / 59.2 / 80.1

1.4The accrued Unfunded Liability has been calculated using actuarial assumptions that differ from those used at the last actuarial investigation. The assumptions have been developed based on current economic expectations and the actual demographic experience of the schemes particularly over the three years to 30 June 2008.

1.5The accrued Unfunded Liability as at 30 June 2008 for current members, preserved members and pensioners has been calculated to be $80.1 billion, which is 6.6% of current GDP. The corresponding figure as at 30 June 2005 was $64.4 billion, which was 7.8% of GDP as at that date.

1.6Total Unfunded Liability is expected to reduce as a percentage of projected GDP from 6.6% as at 30 June 2008 to 0.9% as at 30 June 2048, mainly due to the closure of the schemes and the ageing of the membership.

1.7We have projected the accrued Unfunded Liability as at 30 June 2005 to 30 June 2008 on the basis of the actuarial assumptions used in the 30 June 2005 actuarial investigation. The projected accrued Unfunded Liability on this basis as at 30 June 2008 is $72.1 billion. The difference between the projected and actual unfunded liabilities is mainly due to differences between the actual experience of the schemes over the period and assumptions made. These differences included:

•salary increases being higher than expected;

•average notional crediting interest rates being higher than expected for both the PSS and CSS;

•the indexation of pensions in payment being higher than expected; and

•the takeup of pension benefits being higher than expected.

In addition part of the difference between the projected and actual unfunded liabilities is due to the assumptions adopted for the 2008 investigation being different from those adopted for the 2005 investigation. In total the changes in assumptions have resulted in an increase in the combined Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS of approximately $2.57 billion as at 30 June 2008.

There has been a change in calculation methodology from the 2005 Long Term Cost Report. The change relates to methodology used to apportion the total liability between past and future membership. This change brings the Long Term Cost Report more closely into line with the approach used in Australian Accounting Standards and the Budget process. This change has resulted in an increase in the combined Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS of approximately $670 million at 30 June 2008.

There have been several changes to the Schemes’ benefit designs since 1 July 2005 (refer Section 3). These changes have resulted in a decrease in the combined Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS of approximately $80 million
at 30 June 2008.

Results – Notional Employer Contribution Rates

1.8The Notional Employer Contribution Rates (NECRs) for the two schemes (including contributions towards the 3% productivity superannuation benefit) are summarised in the following table:

Notional Employer Contribution Rates
(% of Superannuation Salaries)
Report as at / PSS / CSS / Combined
30 June 1999 / 14.2 / 21.9 / 17.2
30 June 2002 / 15.4 / 28.3 / 19.3
30 June 2005 / 15.6 / 28.2 / 18.3
30 June 2008* / 16.3 / 21.4 / 17.1

* new methodology

1.9The NECRs as at 30 June 2008, excluding the employer productivity contribution rate of approximately 3%, are:

PSS / CSS
30 June 2008 / 13.3 / 18.4

The CSS rate of 18.4% of superannuation salaries is the actual CSS 2008 rate for those agencies with separate productivity superannuation arrangements.

1.10The combined rate in Section 1.8 broadly represents the cost to the Australian Government of the superannuation benefits that are accruing for employees at the present time.

1.11The contribution rate for the PSS as at 30 June 2008 has increased by 0.7% of superannuation salaries compared to the rate as at 30 June 2005. The contribution rate for the CSS as at 30 June 2008 has decreased by 6.8% of superannuation salaries compared to the rate as at 30 June 2005.

1.12The significant decrease of NECR for CSS is primarily due to the change in calculation methodology.

Scheme Membership

1.13The following tables summarise the membership of the schemes since 1999.

Contributing Membership
PSS / CSS / Total
30June1999 / 106,141 / 52,880 / 159,021
30June2002 / 129,683 / 39,986 / 169,669
30June2005 / 154,897 / 32,006 / 186,903
30 June 2008 / 132,274 / 22,162 / 154,436
Preserved Membership
PSS / CSS / Total
30June1999 / 51,176 / 12,521 / 63,697
30June2002 / 76,357 / 13,969 / 90,326
30June2005 / 85,709 / 12,227 / 97,936
30 June 2008 / 103,628 / 11,461 / 115,089
Pensioners
PSS / CSS / Total
30June1999 / 4,950 / 81,415 / 86,365
30June2002 / 7,598 / 83,370 / 90,968
30June2005 / 10,912 / 85,028 / 95,940
30 June 2008 / 15,759 / 86,901 / 102,660
Dependent Pensioners
PSS / CSS / Total
30June1999 / 210 / 26,962 / 27,172
30June2002 / 331 / 27,930 / 28,261
30June2005 / 507 / 28,560 / 29,067
30 June 2008 / 693 / 28,531 / 29,224

1.14In the PSS fewer contributory members exited during the period from 1 July 2005 to 30 June 2008 than anticipated in the actuarial assumptions (mainly due to there being fewer retrenchments than expected). However, in the CSS more contributors exited during the period than expected. Overall, the actual contributory membership at 30 June 2008 was higher than expected.

1.15The number of PSS preserved members at 30 June 2008 was lower than expected mainly due to a lower than expected number of contributor exits. The number of CSS preserved members at 30 June 2008 was higher than expected mainly since there were fewer than expected contributor exits.

The number of PSS and CSS pensioners at 30 June 2008 was broadly in line with that expected.

Methodology

1.16For the purposes of this actuarial investigation we have used the “Actual” accruals method of apportioning the total liability between past and future membership method (refer Section 5). This differs from the method adopted for the 2005 actuarial investigation.

1.17This change in methodology has resulted in an increase in the combined Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS of approximately $670 million at 30 June 2008.

1.18The investigation has been performed having regard to all relevant legislation that has been enacted.

Economic Assumptions

1.19The key economic assumptions adopted for this investigation are shown in the table below. The assumptions adopted for the previous investigation are shown for comparative purposes.

Item / 2008 Actuarial Investigation / 2005 Actuarial Investigation
CPI Increases / 2.5% per annum / 2.5% per annum
Investment Returns / 6.0% per annum (nominal)
3.5% per annum (real) / 6.0% per annum (nominal)
3.5% per annum (real)
General Salary Increases / 4.0% per annum (nominal)
1.5% per annum (real) / 4.0% per annum (nominal)
1.5% per annum (real)
GDP Increases* / 2.4% per annum (real) / 2.3% per annum (real)

* The GDP increase rate shown is the average of the annual rates over the forty year period from the date of each investigation. Full details are shown in Appendix B.

1.20Of the economic assumptions only the GDP increase assumption is different between the 2005 investigation and the 2008 investigation.

1.21As the schemes are unfunded, our view is that the best determinant of the investment return is the expected return on government bonds over the long term, as this would be the cost to the Australian Government were they to “fund” the schemes via borrowings. Based on historic margins between the yield on Government bonds and the rate of inflation we believe that a real yield of 3.5% per annum (6% per annum nominal) continues to be appropriate.

Demographic Assumptions

1.22The demographic assumptions have been reviewed based on the experience of the schemes over the three years to 30 June 2008. The most significant changes are:

•Increase in the take-up of resignation benefits for CSS members aged 54;

•Change in the rate of mortality improvement for pensioners; and

•Increase in the take-up of pension benefits by PSS members.

1.23In total the changes in assumptions have resulted in an increase in the combined Unfunded Liability of the PSS and CSS of approximately $2.57 billion as at 30 June 2008.

two Introduction

Background

2.1This report estimates the long term cost of providing superannuation benefits to members of the Public Sector Superannuation Scheme (PSS) and the Commonwealth Superannuation Scheme (CSS). The estimate has been determined based on an actuarial investigation of the schemes as at 30 June 2008.

2.2This investigation has been carried out by Martin Stevenson FIAA FIA and Darren Wickham FIAA, of Mercer (Australia) (Mercer) at the request of the Department of Finance and Deregulation.

2.3This report satisfies the requirements of Professional Standard No. 401 of The Institute of Actuaries of Australia to the extent that the Standard is relevant to the investigation. Professional Standard No. 401 relates to the preparation of reports commenting on the financial condition of defined benefit superannuation funds.

2.4Martin Stevenson FIAA FIA carried out the previous actuarial investigation of the schemes as at 30 June 2005.
The results of that investigation were set out in a report dated November 2005.

Purpose of the Investigation

2.5The main aim of this investigation is to identify the long-term cost of the PSS and CSS that will be charged to the Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF). The long term cost has been estimated in three ways.

• Projected Employer Costs

We have projected the Australian Government’s outlay in respect of superannuation benefits in each of the next 40 years and expressed these amounts as a percentage of projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

• Unfunded Liability

• Notional Employer Contribution Rates

These are the employer contribution rates necessary to ensure that employer-financed benefits from the PSS and CSS would remain fully funded in three years time, if they were fully funded now. The contribution rates are reduced to allow for any additional lump sums paid in the previous year under the expanded agency assessment framework.

three The PSS and CSS

Introduction

3.1The PSS was established on 1 July 1990 on the basis of a Policy Statement (“the Reform Statement”) made by the then Minister for Finance on 15 October 1989. The Superannuation Act 1990 and a Trust Deed and Rules govern its operations. The PSS was closed to new members from 1 July 2005. Employees of Australian Government agencies prior to 1 July 2005 were eligible for membership of the PSS.

Most employees of Australian Government agencies who commence employment on or after 1 July 2005 are eligible to join the Public Sector Superannuation Accumulation Plan (PSSAP) that was established on 1 July 2005.

3.2The CSS was introduced on 1 July 1976. Its operations are governed by the Superannuation Act 1976, as amended, and associated regulations. The CSS has been closed to new members since 1 July 1990. All CSS contributors at
1 July 1990 were given the option of transferring to the PSS. A further option to transfer to the PSS was provided in 1996 for a limited period of time. The current membership of the CSS covers Australian Government employees who were members on 30 June 1990 and who have not transferred to the PSS.

3.3Prior to July 1976 the superannuation of Australian Government public servants was covered by the
Superannuation Act 1922. There are no longer any members contributing under the Superannuation Act 1922. However, some pensioners remain entitled to benefits under this Act and the liabilities in respect of these members are included in the CSS Unfunded Liability.

Benefits

3.4The PSS and CSS are defined benefit schemes. The PSSAP is an accumulation scheme.

3.5In the PSS the primary benefit is expressed as a lump sum based on a multiple of final average salary that is related
to a member’s average contribution rate and total service. On exit, the benefit may be wholly or partially taken as an indexed pension.

3.6The CSS provides a retirement benefit equal to the sum of:

•employer-financed indexed pension – being a percentage of final salary based on the period of contributory service and discounted for early retirement before age 65;

•productivity component – made up of accumulated productivity contributions; and

•member-financed benefit – made up of accumulated basic and supplementary contributions.

The member can elect to take the productivity component and member-financed benefit either as a non-indexed pension or a lump sum.

3.7Further details of the benefits provided by the PSS and CSS are set out in Appendix A.

Contributions

3.8Generally agencies pay productivity superannuation contributions in respect of their employees to the PSS or CSS. However, there are some agencies that have made alternative arrangements in respect of their CSS members.

3.9Member and productivity superannuation contributions paid to the PSS and CSS are invested by the Trustee of the two schemes, the Australian Reward Investment Alliance (ARIA). Prior to 30 June 2003 these contributions were accumulated at a crediting rate periodically declared by the Trustee. The crediting rate was based on the investment returns achieved by the scheme assets. With effect from 1 July 2003 to 30 June 2007 the Trustee suspended allocation of earnings through annual crediting rates, with earnings allocated through the exit rate, which was the total earnings rate from 1 July 2003 to the date of exit. From 1 July 2007 contributions are again accumulated at a crediting rate periodically declared by the Trustee.

3.10The PSS and CSS are partly funded to the extent that real assets are held in respect of member contributions and productivity superannuation contributions. These assets, as appearing in the reports of the schemes’ Trustee, were:

Assets of the PSS and CSS ($ millions)
Date / PSS / CSS / Total
30June1999 / 3,481 / 5,591 / 9,072
30June2002 / 4,468 / 5,337 / 9,805
30June2005 / 7,583 / 6,015 / 13,598
30 June 2008 / 11,346 / 6,073 / 17,419

Changes to Benefits Since 2005

3.11There have been several changes to the benefits provided by the PSS and CSS since the previous actuarial investigation as at 30 June 2005.

3.12From 1 July 2008, PSS members have access to Choice of Fund. If members exercise choice, their benefits are preserved in the PSS with future contributions paid into the PSSAP.

3.13PSS members’ benefits are capped by a Maximum Benefit Limit (MBL). Prior to 1 January 2008, most members were subjected to an MBL of 8 times Average Salary, with the MBL varying depending on the members’ average salary. From
1 January 2008, MBLs have been simplified. Members with an average salary less than $50,000 have an MBL of $500,000. All other members have an MBL of 10 times average salary. These amounts are indexed annually.

3.14Prior to 1 July 2008, PSS members were required to make contributions of 2% to 10% of their salaries and CSS members were required to make contributions of at least 5% of their salaries. From 1 July 2008, members have the option to not contribute to the schemes.

3.15On 24 November 2008, legislation was passed allowing partners in same-sex relationships to be eligible for
reversionary pensions.

3.16In total, the changes in benefit design have resulted in a decrease in the combined Unfunded Liabilities of the PSS and CSS of approximately $80 million as at 30 June 2008.

four Membership and Data

4.1Data relating to the membership of the PSS and CSS was provided for this actuarial investigation by ComSuper, the schemes’ administrator, on behalf of the schemes’ Trustee. Data provided included:

•Details of contributory members, pensioners and preserved members of the PSS and CSS as at 30 June 2008; and

•Details of Exits by contributory members and preserved members from the PSS and CSS during the three year period from 1 July 2005 to 30 June 2008.

A range of validity checks were conducted by ComSuper on the data prior to it being provided to Mercer.

4.2A range of checks have been carried out by our firm to test the integrity of the data and the variation reports produced by ComSuper. In addition, a reconciliation of the current data with the data utilised for the previous investigation as at
30 June 2005 has been carried out.