Probability Lesson Plan

Name: Paul Wilson

Grade Level: 3rd Grade

Content Area: Data Analysis and Probability

Subject Matter with the Content Area: Probability

State Adopted Textbook: Houghton Mifflin California Math

Van de Walle chapter/page reference: Chapter 23/Pgs. (475-490)

2.Standards-based Learning Objective:

The students will decide if an event is certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible, as measured by completing pp.498-500 (Lesson 2) of Houghton Mifflin Mathematics with at least 80% accuracy.

3.California Mathematics Content Standard:

a.SDAP 1.1: Students understand and identify whether common events are certain, likely, unlikely, or improbable.

b.This lesson is the second lesson in the twenty third chapter of the textbook. The lesson sequence in the chapter is the following: (1) Record Outcomes; (2) Probability; (3) Make Predictions; (4) Make Predictions Pt. 2; and (5) Field Trip. The first lesson in this chapter is a hands-on lesson on how to record and display results of probability experiments. In the subsequent lesson, students conduct probability experiments and predict outcomes. The Preview-Review activity and the game “Grab Bag” will be utilized to set up the lesson as well as the chapter.

c. This lesson is in one of the later chapters of this book and students may be looking forward to summer vacation. Due to this, it is anticipated that students may wander and be less focused on tasks and instructions given. It is also anticipated that students may confuse probability words. Due to a variety of different types of students in the class such as EL and Advanced Learners, it is anticipated that students may work in pairs or even groups during the entire lesson. It is anticipated that repetition may be necessary for EL students. It is also anticipated that students will work together to solve problems and answer questions. Furthermore, it is anticipated that students will enjoy the preview-review and the “Grab Bag” game.

4.Materials

Paper Squares: (5 red, 5 blue) per group (10)

Ziploc bags for squares: per group (10)

White Board

Dry Erase Markers (Red, Blue, Orange)

Houghton Mifflin Mathematics Chapter 23 Lesson 2

Sheet of lined paper (30)

Practice and Problem Solving Worksheets (30)

5.Vocabulary

The following mathematical vocabulary will be reviewed during this lesson: certain, likely, unlikely, andimpossible. In the previous lesson, equally likely was presented to them, but not these words. Therefore, the teacher will explain and define these new words and show how each term is used within the context of the lesson. The teacher will also ask the students to listen, say, and write these words during the lesson. Furthermore, the teacher will also verbally recognize students who use these vocabulary terms during their responses and conversations.

6.Procedures

a. Preview and/or Review (Anticipatory Set)

Instructional Strategies and Progress Monitoring / Student Activities
Preview: The teacher will explicitly state and write on the board the objective of today’s lesson, which is to decide if an event is certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible. Include equally certain. / Students actively listen and chorally restate the objective.
The teacher will explicitly state, explain, and model each vocabulary word presented. The teacher will write out each word on the board to provide vocal and visual representation. This is important because by knowing the differences of each vocabulary word given, the students can utilize their knowledge into their work. / The students will listen, say, and then write the definitions on their piece of papers.
To get the students to activate their prior knowledge, the teacher will draw 5 red squares and 1 blue square on the white board.
The teacher will ask the students, “Which color would you likely pick and why?” The teacher will also ask the students to raise their hands to answer the question.
The teacher would also ask the students, “How would you describe the probability of the square you picked being blue?”
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will draw different colored boxes for each vocabulary word and will call upon students to see if they can determine if that set of boxes are certain, likely, unlikely or impossible.
The teacher will ask the class to repeat the vocabulary words in unison as the teacher points to teach word. “Certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible” / The students will listen and watch as boxes are drawn.
The students would talk amongst themselves and raise their hands to answer the question while also giving their reason.
The students would listen and raise their hands to give a response to the question at hand.
The students will watch and listen as the teacher draws boxes on the board. They will raise their hands if they believe they can answer one of the four questions drawn on the board.
The students will repeat with the teacher the four vocabulary words.
The teacher will then restate the lesson objective and will mention that these words will be used in future lessons. / Students will actively listen to the teacher’s explanation.

b. Explicit (Direct) Instruction (“I Do”)

Instructional Strategies and Progress Monitoring / Student Activities:
The teacher will use the Houghton Mifflin Chapter 23 Lesson 2 Learn by Example exercise (Pg. 498) to explain differences between certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible.
Progress monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will ask students in their groups to share what was just demonstrated. The teacher will check students for understanding by listening to their use of academic vocabulary and answers any questions that they may still have. / The students will actively listen to the teacher.
The students will think about what the teacher has explained and will write down any questions they have on their papers.
The teacher will explain that the students will now play the game “Grab Bag” in order to develop further understanding of the differences between certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible.
The teacher will then tell the students that there are 5 red and 5 blue squares in the bag. The teacher will also explain that they are trying to figure out if their bags are certain, unlikely, likely, or impossible based on their colored squares
The teacher will ask all students to see if they remember from their previous lesson of the certainty of picking a blue square in the current bag of 5 red and 5 blue squares.
The teacher will then ask the students to all take out 5 red squares. The teacher will ask, “What is the probability of picking a blue square class? And why?
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will move around and closely look at student interactions.
The teacher will then ask the students to replace the 5 red and take out 5 blue square. The teacher will ask, “What is the probability of picking a blue square class? And why?
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will move around and closely look at student interactions.
The teacher will then ask the students to replace the 5 blue squares and take out 2 red squares. The teacher will ask, “What is the probability of getting a blue square this time? And why?
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will move around and closely look at student interactions.
Then, the teacher will ask the students to replace removed squares and ask the students to remove 4 blue squares. The teacher will ask, “What is the probability of getting a blue square this time?
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will move around and closely look at student interactions. / With teacher direction, the students will first take their bags and open them up. The students will take out the colored squares and set them on their desks.
The students will then put back the squares in the bag.
The students will talk amongst themselves can will raise their hands to come up with an answer.
The students will take out 5 red squares and talk amongst their group to come up with an answer
A representative of the group will respond to teacher’s question by raising their hand.
The students will open their bags and stick the red squares back in while removing 5 blue squares. They then talk amongst themselves to come up with an answer.
Students from each group may raise their hand to try and answer the question
The students will open their bags and stick the blue squares back in while removing 2 red squares. They will talk amongst themselves to come up with an answer.
A student from the group will patiently raise their hand to answer the question.
The students will open their bags and stick the red squares back in the bag while removing 4 blue squares. They will then try to answer the question by raising their hands.
The students will raise hands to attempt to answer this question given by the teacher.
The teacher will write on the board all of the probabilities previously taught and will go over them with the class. / The students listen intently to the teacher’s lecture.

c. Guided Practice (“We Do”)

Instructional Strategies and Progress Monitoring / Student Activities
The teacher will draw a spinner on the boardwith two different colors.
The teacher will then ask the students to number their paper from one to five as the teacher does the same on the board.
The teacher will write questions on the board about different probability outcomes. The teacher will write out questions regarding probability and will ask the students what the probabilities of the questions are.
The teacher will first ask a group on the probability that the pointer will land on orange and why.
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will listen to the students answer and write a C by the number of the question if the student answered correct. Also, if the student answered incorrectly, I will ask them if they are sure about their answer and give them another chance.
The teacher will then ask another group on the probability that it will land on red and why.
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will again listen to the student’s response and write a C by the number if the student correctly answered the question. If the incorrect answer is given, the teacher will give the student another chance.
The teacher will ask the next group on the probability of the pointer landing on orange or blue and why.
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will listen and make sure the students understand the correct answer. The teacher will mark a C for the correct answer and if the incorrect answer is given, the teacher will give the student another chance.
The teacher will ask the question to the entire class when the pointer will land on blue and why.
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): The teacher will respond to the class and will let then know if they answered the question correctly or incorrectly. The teacher will review the guided practice and go over the answers to make sure the students understood what was taught to them. / The students will listen and watch the teacher.
The students will number their lined paper from one to five and wait patiently for further instructions.
The students will write out the questions on their lined papers.
The students will answer the question after a few moments.
The students will write a C on their papers when the correct answer is given and continue to listen and participate in the guided lesson.
The students in this group will take a few moments then answer the question accordingly.
The students will write a C on their papers when the answer is given correctly and listen to further instructions.
The students will converse and answer the question.
The students will listen and continue to write notes and put a C on the correct answer on their paper.
The class will respond and give their reasoning as to why they think that their answer is the right one.
The student may ask questions about some of the answers and listen to further instructions.

d. Independent Practice (“I Do”)

Instructional Strategies and Progress Monitoring / Student Activities
The teacher will direct students to do the practice and problem solving worksheet, problems 8 through 11 on pg. 500.
Progress Monitoring (check for understanding): While students are working independently, the teacher will oversee the class and check responses. When the student has the correct answer, the teacher will write a C for correct by the problem. If the response if incorrect, the teacher will explain to the student that it is incorrect and that the student should try again. If students are having difficulty with understanding the concept, the teacher will provide a small group instruction at front of the class by the white board. / The students will complete the rest of the problems independently. If they have difficultly, then they can ask for assistance from their group members. If they are having trouble as a group, the can have one of their group members raise their hands so that the teacher may assist them.

e. Closure

Instructional Strategies and Progress Monitoring / Student Activities
The teacher will review the lesson’s key vocabulary and mathematical concepts. The teacher will then direct students to discuss what they learned in the lesson. The teacher will also give out a quiz to students for assessment that is on pg. 500. / The students will use their vocabulary in their lesson. The students will also take a quiz to see if they learned anything.
For homework, the teacher will ask the students to find out the probability that a block of ice will melt at 68 degrees F (room temperature) by having them ask their parents. The teacher will ask the students to write out their answers on a piece of paper and turn it in the next class session. / The students will complete the assigned homework and turn it in the next class session.

f. Back-up strategies:

For students who may have difficulty understanding the concepts of certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible, the teacher would go over with the students that certain and impossible are complete opposites. The teacher would explain that certain is absolute and that it will always happen and that impossible means that it will never happen. To explain to students about the differences between likely and unlikely, the teacher would explain that students can think of the concept of more than a half or less than a half. The teacher would show a diagram of items containing more than half, which are likely and that items less than half, which are unlikely. Other examples of strategies to help improve student learning would to be have students in groups. By doing this, I can have my students peer tutor each other to check and compare answers.

g. Rationale:

This lesson meets the third grade Academic Content Standard because it is taken directly from the district adopted and state approved textbook. Specifically, it addresses Statistics, Data Analysis, and Probability 1.1: Students are able to identify whether common events are certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible. This lesson also addresses Statistics, Data Analysis, and Probability 1.0, Mathematical Reasoning 1.0, Mathematical Reasoning 3.0, Mathematical Reasoning 3.2, and Mathematical Reasoning 3.3.

This lesson is developmentally appropriate for third grade students for several reasons. First, this is the students first time attempting to conduct simple experiments to determine outcomes and to make predictions based on those outcomes. This is challenging their critical thinking skills, and that is something that we want students to improve on. This lesson provides active engagement responses throughout---including the presentation of new vocabulary to the students, the ‘grab bag’ game activity, and the guided practice questions, along with the practice and problem worksheet. This lesson has been planned to incorporate cooperative and individual learning simultaneously. This lesson has been constructed to make sure that students master the lesson with the use of direct instruction, guided practice, independent practice, and closure. The progress monitoring that occurs throughout the lesson will allow the teacher to monitor and adjust instruction to meet the needs of students.

7.Assessment