Probabilistic Decision-Making and Climate Assessment

Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan.

Packet Contents

Decision Making Assessment – note there are two assessment copies for either using probabilities or ratios. Use the assessment appropriate for your students’ abilities.

Probabilities

Fractions

Climate Science Assessment – test bank questions from Learning Module 2 and ENSO Jigsaw

Matching - two copies in list order and randomized

Multiple choice

True / false

Short answer

Climate Science Assessment - test bank questions from optional material in Learning Module 2 and 3

Matching - two copies in list order and randomized

Multiple choice

True / false

Short answer

Decision Making Assessment

Using probabilities follows

Decision Making- Assessment

Josephine Farmer is trying to make a decision as to how much fertilizer (either 100 or 200 pounds per acre) to apply to her corn crop. Josephine wants to maximize her expected profits.

Year / Precipitation Level / Year / Precipitation Level
2005 / Near Normal / 2000 / Near Normal
2004 / Above Normal / 1999 / Below Normal
2003 / Near Normal / 1998 / Near Normal
2002 / Below Normal / 1997 / Below Normal
2001 / Near Normal / 1996 / Near Normal

1.From her historical records, Josephine developed the following table that relates nitrogen level to precipitation level and profits. Using data from the above table fill in the forecast probability level for precipitation levels of above, near, and below normal.

Fertilizer Decision / Precipitation Level / Forecast
Probability / Profits ($ / acre)
100 pounds nitrogen / Above normal / 110
Near normal / 80
Below Normal / 70
200 pounds nitrogen / Above normal / 130
Near normal / 90
Below Normal / 30

2.Complete the following per acre decision tree diagram for Josephine’s problem. Be sure to fill in each branch and Josephine’s goal.

Goal______

DecisionsPrecipitationProfits

Levels

Hint: for questions 3 and 4.

expected profit = (probability of below normal precipitation * profits) + (probability of near normal precipitation * profits) + (probability of above normal precipitation * profits)

3.Find the expected profit for the decision to put 100 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.

4.Find the expected profit for the decision to put 200 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.

5.What is Josephine’s best decision concerning the application of nitrogen to her corn crop?

6.If Josephine applied 100 pounds of nitrogen to her corn acre, will she get the expected profit you found in questions 3 every year? Circle the correct answer.

YesNo

7.Why or why not, did you provide the answer you did in questions 6? In other words, what is the meaning of expected value?

Decision Making Assessment

Using fractions follows

Decision Making- Assessment

Josephine Farmer is trying to make a decision as to how much fertilizer (either 100 or 200 pounds per acre) to apply to her corn crop. Josephine wants to maximize her expected profits.

Year / Precipitation Level / Year / Precipitation Level
2005 / Near Normal / 2000 / Near Normal
2004 / Above Normal / 1999 / Below Normal
2003 / Near Normal / 1998 / Near Normal
2002 / Below Normal / 1997 / Below Normal
2001 / Near Normal / 1996 / Near Normal

1.From her historical records, Josephine developed the following table that relates nitrogen level to precipitation level and profits. Using data from the above table fill in the forecast probability level using the fraction of years for precipitation levels of above, near, and below normal.

Fertilizer Decision / Precipitation Level / Forecast
Probability / Profits ($ / acre)
100 pounds nitrogen / Above normal / 110
Near normal / 80
Below Normal / 70
200 pounds nitrogen / Above normal / 130
Near normal / 90
Below Normal / 30

2.Complete the following per acre decision tree diagram for Josephine’s problem. Be sure to fill in each branch and Josephine’s goal.

Goal______

DecisionsPrecipitationProfits

Levels

Hint: for questions 3 and 4.

3.Find the expected profit for the decision to put 100 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.

4.Find the expected profit for the decision to put 200 pounds of nitrogen on the acre of corn.

5.What is Josephine’s best decision concerning the application of nitrogen to her corn crop?

6.If Josephine applied 100 pounds of nitrogen to her corn acre, will she get the expected profit you found in questions 3 every year? Circle the correct answer.

YesNo

7.Why or why not, did you provide the answer you did in questions 6? In other words, what is the meaning of expected value?

Climate Science Test Bank

Questions from Required Material in

Learning Module 2

and

Learning Module 3 - ENSO Jigsaw

Matching Questions

Careful this is a listing of the matching questions with the terms and definitions across from each other. This is for ease in choosing questions. The next page has the definitions randomized.

Terms / Definitions / Questions
1. Climate / A. This is experienced over a period two weeks or longer.
2. Neutral / B. ENSO phase characterized by conditions that are considered to be normal.
3. El Niño / C. ENSO phase characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region.
4. Warm / D. Another name for the El Niño phase.
5. Cold / E. Another name for the La Niña phase.
6. Thermocline / F. The boundary between the colder deep water and warmer upper water layer.
7. Niño Region 3.4 / G. Region in the tropical Pacific Ocean used to determine ENSO phases.
8. Weather / H. This is experienced over a short period of less than two weeks.
9. Teleconnections / I. A linkage between a physical process in one region and climate anomalies in other regions.
10. Upwelling / J. When the thermocline moves closer to the ocean’s surface.
11. WalkerCirculation / K. The vertical and horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.
12. Southern Oscillation / L. The seesaw of air pressure near the equator between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.
13. Anomalies / M. Sea surface temperature changes from normal.
14. ENSO / N. Refers to the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
15. La Niña / O. ENSO phase characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region
16. Jet streams / P. Relatively normal band of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere
17. Trade Winds / Q. Winds found in the tropics and subtropics that blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere, and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere

Matching Questions

Put the correct letter of the definition in front of the term / phrase.

1. WalkerCirculation / A. This is experienced over a period two weeks or longer.
2. Anomalies / B. ENSO phase characterized by conditions that are considered to be normal.
3. Upwelling / C. ENSO phase characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region.
4. Neutral / D. Another name for the El Niño phase.
5. ENSO / E. Another name for the La Niña phase.
6. Thermocline / F. The boundary between the colder deep water and warmer upper water layer.
7. El Niño / G. Region in the tropical Pacific Ocean used to determine ENSO phases.
8. Southern Oscillation / H. This is experienced over a short period of less than two weeks.
9. Warm / I. A linkage between a physical process in one region and climate anomalies in other regions.
10. La Niña / J. When the thermocline moves closer to the ocean’s surface.
11. Teleconnections / K. The vertical and horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.
12. Climate / L. The seesaw of air pressure near the equator between the eastern and western Pacific Ocean.
13. Weather / M. Sea surface temperature changes from normal.
14. Cold / N. A change in the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
15. Niño Region 3.4 / O. ENSO phase characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region
16. Jetstreams / P. Relatively normal band of strong winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere
17. Trade Winds / Q. Winds found in the tropics and subtropics that blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere, and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere

Multiple Choice Questions

Directions: Choose the best answer for the following questions.

___ 1. EL Niño / Southern Oscillation refers to the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the

A.Tropical Atlantic Ocean

B.Tropical Pacific Ocean

C.Northern Pacific Ocean

D.Indian Ocean

___ 2. Weather is what is experienced over

A.Five days

B.A period of less than two weeks.

C.A period of two weeks or longer

D.A week

___ 3. The acronym, ENSO, stands for

A. La Niña

B.El Niño

C.El Niño and Southern Oscillation

D.La Niña and Southern Oscillation

___ 4. Niño 3.4 region is found where?

A.At the equator in the Atlantic Ocean

B.At the equator in the Pacific Ocean

C.Running from the North Pole to the South Pole

D.In the northern Pacific Ocean

___ 5. What is the Walker Circulation?

A.The vertical and horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.

B.The horizontal circulation of air associated with the trade winds.

C.The vertical circulation of air.

D.The winds that blow in a cyclonic direction

___ 6. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño phase?

  1. They are colder than normal
  2. They are warmer than normal
  3. They are the same temperature normal
  4. Anomalies do not happen during El Niño phases

___ 7. What is meant by La Niña being the cold phase of ENSO?

A.It is characterized by positive sea surface temperatures anomalies

  1. It is characterized by negative sea surface temperatures anomalies
  2. It has normal sea surface temperatures
  3. La Niña is not known as the warm phase

___ 8. In El Niño Southern / Oscillation phenomenon, how are El Niño and Southern Oscillation different?

  1. There is no difference
  2. El Niño is the oceanic component
  3. Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component
  4. Both B and C

___ 9. What term is sometimes used by people to refer to ENSO?

  1. El Niño
  2. La Niña
  3. Neutral
  4. None, people always use ENSO

___ 10. What Niño region is used to classify ENSO phases?

  1. Region 3
  2. Region 4
  3. Region 3.4
  4. Region 2

___ 11. What phenomena is the basis for most current climate forecasts?

  1. Walker Circulation
  2. Trade winds
  3. Pacific Oscillation
  4. ENSO

___ 12. Under El Niño conditions, the warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific moves in which direction?

  1. North
  2. South
  3. East
  4. West

___ 13. Under La Niña conditions, the warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific moves in which direction?

  1. North
  2. South
  3. East
  4. West

___ 14. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the La Niña phase?

  1. They are colder than normal
  2. They are warmer than normal
  3. They are the same temperature as normal
  4. Anomalies do not happen in La Niña events

___ 15. What is the typical sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the El Niño phase?

  1. They are colder than normal
  2. They are warmer than normal
  3. They are the same temperature as normal
  4. Anomalies do not happen in La Niña events

___ 16. Which of the following is a characteristic of the trade winds during an El Niño phase?

  1. The trade winds are not affected by ENSO
  2. The trade winds weaken
  3. The trade winds strengthen
  4. The trade winds move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west

___ 17. Which of the following is a characteristic of the trade winds during a La Niña phase?

  1. The trade winds are not affected by ENSO
  2. The trade winds weaken
  3. The trade winds strengthen
  4. The trade winds move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the east

___ 18. Which of the following is a characteristic of the jet streams during an El Niño phase?

  1. The jet streams not affected by ENSO
  2. They push north and are more variable
  3. They stay on a southern track
  4. The jet streams move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west

___ 19. Which of the following is a characteristic of the jet streams during a La Niña phase?

  1. The jet streams not affected by ENSO
  2. They push north and are more variable
  3. They stay on a southern track
  4. The jet streams move the warm pool of water in the equatorial Pacific to the west

___ 20. Under neutral conditions, what characterizes the warm pool of water in the tropical Pacific?

  1. It is characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures
  2. It is characterized by colder sea surface temperatures
  3. La Niña is not known as the warm phase
  4. It has normal sea surface temperatures

___ 21. What is meant by sea surface temperature anomalies?

  1. Trade winds move southward
  2. The temperature effects of the El Niño Phase of ENSO
  3. The temperature effects of the La Niña phase of ENSO
  4. Changes from normal

___ 22. During anEl Niño phase, which of the following characterizes upwelling in the eastern Pacific?

  1. Less upwelling
  2. More upwelling
  3. No change in the amount of upwelling
  4. The change occurs in the western Pacific and not the eastern Pacific Ocean

___ 23. During a La Niña phase, which of the following characterizes upwelling in the eastern Pacific?

  1. Less upwelling
  2. More upwelling
  3. No change in the amount of upwelling
  4. The change occurs in the western Pacific and not the eastern Pacific Ocean

___ 24. The thermocline is

  1. Coupling of the ocean and atmosphere
  2. A shift in the Walker Circulation
  3. Another name for sea surface temperatures
  4. The boundary between colder deep water and warmer shallow water

___ 24. Increased upwelling causes the following biological change.

  1. Increase in plant and animal life
  2. Decrease in plant and animal life
  3. No change in plant and animal life
  4. A, B, and C because scientist do not understand upwelling

___ 25. What cause upwelling in the Pacific Ocean?

A.Thermocline moving toward the sea surface

B.Changes in the climatic pressure

C.Changes in the warm pool of water

D.Smaller pressure differences in the Southern Oscillation

True / False Questions. Circle the correct answer.

  1. T FAn El Niño is sometimes called a warm event because it is associated with warmer than usual temperatures in some parts of the world.
  1. T FA La Niña is sometimes called a cold event because it is associated with cooler than usual sea surface temperatures in Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean.
  1. T FTeleconnections are linkages between a physical event in one geographical region and a region away from the physical event.
  1. T FDuring an El Niño event, the trade winds weaken.
  1. T FDuring a La Niña event, the trade winds weaken.
  1. T F During an El Niño event, the pool of warm water moves westward.
  1. T F During a La Niña event, the pool of warm water moves westward.
  1. T FEl Niño phase is also known as the warm phase.
  1. T F La Niña phase is also known as the warm phase.
  1. T FA single snowstorm can not be directly attributed to an ENSO event.
  1. T FDifferences in sea surface temperatures between the east and west equatorial Pacific Ocean cause the trade winds to occur.
  1. T FScientists completely understand the ENSO phenomenon.

Short Answer Questions

1.Where is the Niño region 3.4 located?

2.How does upwelling influence biological life in the ocean?

3.Describe the changes in the sea surface temperatures and the Walker Circulation between normal conditions and El Niño events.

4.Describe the changes in the sea surface temperatures and the Walker Circulation between normal conditions and La Niña events.

5.Why is the Niño region 3.4 important?

6.In California, El Niño conditions are associated with higher rainfall levels during the December to February period. Does this mean higher rainfall will always occur during El Niño events?

Mark the impact of El Niño and La Niña events on the U.S map

1. Mark the expected changes of precipitation and temperature during El Niño events in December through February for the following U.S. areas.

a) Northwestern U.S., b) Southwestern U.S., and c) Southeastern U.S.


2. Mark the expected changes of precipitation and temperature during La Niña events in December through February for the following U.S. areas.


a) Northwestern U.S. and b) Southeastern U.S.

Climate Science Test Bank

Questions from Optional Material in

Module 2

and

All Material from Learning Module 3

Optional Matching Questions

Careful this is a listing of the matching questions with the terms and definitions across from each other. This is for ease in choosing questions. The next page has the definitions randomized.

Term / Definition / Question
Malaria / A. A life-threatening parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes
North Atlantic Oscillation / B. A phenomenon similar to ENSO
Pacific Decadal Oscillation / C. Associated with sea surface temperatures in the northeastern and tropical Pacific Ocean
Indian Monsoon Cycle / D. Important in determining food production for over one billion people
Gleissberg Cycle / E. Maybe important in determining global warming
Coupling / F. Trade winds determine the water temperature at the same water temperature determines the trade winds

Optional Matching Questions

Put the correct letter of the definition in front of the term / phrase.

Term / Definition / Question
Indian Monsoon Cycle / A. A life-threatening parasitic disease transmitted by mosquitoes
Coupling / B. A phenomenon similar to ENSO
North Atlantic Oscillation / C. Associated with sea surface temperatures in the northeastern and tropical Pacific Ocean
Pacific Decadal Oscillation / D. Important in determining food production for over one billion people
Malaria / E. Maybe important in determining global warming
Gleissberg Cycle / F. Trade winds determine the water temperature at the same water temperature determines the trade winds

Optional Multiple Choice Questions

___ 1. La Niña in Spanish means

A.A man

B.Small boy

C.Small girl

D.A woman

___ 2. El Niño in Spanish is referred to as

A.A man

B.A woman

C.Small girl

D.Small boy

___ 3. El Niño and La Niña events occur

A.Every month

B.Every year

C.Every 2-7 years

D.Every 10-15 years.

___ 4. Why are the winds called “Trade Winds?”

A.The trade places with the atmosphere

B.The winds blow eastward

C.The trade winds determine the water temperature

D.Early sailing ships used the winds to sail from South America westward

___ 5. In what months are ENSO climate effects stronger in the Northern hemisphere?

A.September, October and November

B.March, April and May

C.June, July and August

D.December, January and February

___ 6.What happens when there is upwelling along the coast of South American during an El Niño year?