Post-Conflict Transitions
Conference[1]
World Bank, WashingtonDC
April 30th- May 1st, 2007
Monday, April 30th:
9:00 - 9:30 am: Breakfast(Adjacent to Preston Auditorium)
9:30- 10:30 am: Opening Session(Preston Auditorium)
Chair: Francois Bourguignon, Chief Economist & Sr. Vice PresidentDevelopment Economics, World Bank
Opening Remarks: Paul Wolfowitz, President
World Bank
Agenda Overview:Ibrahim Elbadawi, Project Manager & Lead Economist
Development Economics Research Group, World Bank
10:30 - 11:00 am: Coffee Break(Adjacent to Preston Auditorium)
11:00 - 1:00 am: Summary of Issues and Findings (Preston Auditorium)
Chair: L. Alan Winters, Director,
Development Economics Research Group, World Bank
Presentation:Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank
Mark Mattner, World Bank
Gary Milante, World Bank
Responses Sarah Cliffe, Manager
and Perspectives:Fragile States Group, World Bank
Lual Deng, State Minister
Ministry of Finance and National Economy, Sudan
Judith Karl, Chief
Central Strategy and Policy Cluster
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, UNDP
Anja Kasperson, Director
Project on Multidimensional andIntegrated Peace Operations
Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
1:00 – 2:00 pm: LunchBreak
2:00 – 3:30 pm: Book Discussion and Signing(Infoshop)
Introduction: Francois Bourguignon, Chief Economist & Sr. Vice PresidentDevelopment Economics, World Bank
Speaker: Paul Collier, Author of “The Bottom Billion”
Director, Center for the Study of African Economies, Oxford
Discussants:Alan Gelb, Director of Development Policy
Development Economics, World Bank
3:30 pm – 5:30 pm: Session I: Democracy and Conflict(Preston Auditorium)
Chair:Roberta Gatti, Senior Economist
Development Economics Research Group, World Bank
Lead Discussant:Mustapha Nabli, Chief Economist,
Social and Economic Development Group, World Bank
Phil Keefer: ‘Insurgencies and credible commitments in autocracies and democracies’
Colin Jennings: ‘Game theory of post-conflict identity politics’
Gudrun Østby: ‘Political Institutions, Horizontal Inequalities and Civil Conflict’
Lead Discussant:Shantayanan Devarajan, Chief Economist,
South Asia Region, World Bank
Ibrahim Elbadawi and Cristina Bodea: ‘Manifestations of Violence: Civil Wars, Coups and Others’
Simeon Djankov and Marta Reynal-Querol: ‘Colonial Origins of Civil War’
Nils Petter Gleditsch, Lene Siljeholm Christiansenand Håvard Hegre: ‘Democratic Jihad: Military Intervention and Democracy’
OverviewPhilip Oxhorn, Director
Discussant: Center for Developing-Area Studies, McGillUniversity
Tuesday, May 1st:
8:00 - 8:30 am: Breakfast(Adjacent to Preston Auditorium)
8:30 – 10:30 am: Session II: Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance
(Preston Auditorium)
Chair:Pradeep Mitra, Chief Economist
Europe and Central Asia Region, World Bank
Lead Discussant:Nicholas Staines, Senior Economist
International Monetary Fund
Ibrahim Elbadawi and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel: ‘The Demand for Money Around the End of Civil Wars’
Victor Davies: ‘Capital Flight and War’
Christopher Adam, Paul Collier and Victor Davies: ‘Post-Conflict Monetary Reconstruction’
Lead Discussant:Jaime De Melo, Editor
World Bank Economic Review
Norman Loayza, Marta Reynal-Querol and Siyan Chen: ‘The Aftermath of Civil Wars: An Event-Study Approach to Post-Conflict Transitions’
Ibrahim Elbadawi, Linda Kaltani & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel: ‘Post-Conflict Aid, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and Catch-up Growth’
Ibrahim Elbadawi & Cristina Bodea: ‘Political Violence and Underdevelopment’
Overview Sanjeev Gupta, Senior Advisor
Discussant: Fiscal Affairs Department
International Monetary Fund
10:30 – 11:00 am: Coffee (Adjacent to Preston Auditorium)
11:00 am – 1:00 pm: Session III: Conflict Perspectives(Preston Auditorium)
Chair:Ajay Chhibber,Director
Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank
Lead Discussant:Karen Ballentine, Project Manager
Fostering Post-Conflict Economic Recovery
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, UNDP
Håvard Hegre and Clionadh Raleigh: ‘Population Size, Concentration and Civil War. A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis’
Phillip Killicoat: ‘Weaponomics: The Global Market for Assault Rifles’
Lead Discussant:Tjip Walker, Team Leader, Warning and Analysis
Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, USAID
Clionadh Raleigh: ‘Neighboring States, Conflict & Instability’
Indra de Soysa and Eric Neumayer: ‘Disarming Fears of Diversity: Ethnic Heterogeneity and State Militarization, 1988-2002’
Rich Stanley: ‘Why are Civil Wars in Africa so Difficult for Governments to Win? A Quantitative Study of Civil War Outcomes’
Overview Jean Paul Azam, IDEI Researcher
Discussant:University Toulouse I
1:00 – 2:30 pm: LunchBreak
The Human Security Report: 2006
Introduction: Stewart Patrick, Center for Global Development
Speaker: Andrew Mack, University of British Columbia
2:30 – 4:30 pm: Session IV: Peacebuilding and Demobilization(Preston Auditorium)
Chair:Luis Serven, Research Manager
Development Economics Research Group, World Bank
Lead Discussant:Mark Schneider, Sr. Vice President
International Crisis Group
Nicholas Sambanis: ‘Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of United Nations Peacekeeping Operations’
Helga Binningsbø, Scott Gates and Tove G. Lie: 'Post-Conflict Justice and Sustainable Peace'
Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Mans Soderbom: ‘Post-Conflict Risks’
Lead Discussant:Representative [tentative], IMF Development Issues Division
Desiree Nilsson: ‘In the Shadow of Settlement: Multiple Rebel Groups and Precarious Peace’
Katherine Glasmyer and Nicholas Sambanis: ‘Rebel Military Integration and Civil War Termination’
Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler: ‘Military Spending and the Risks of Coups d.Etats’
4:30 – 5:00 pm: Coffee and Tea (Adjacent to Preston Auditorium)
5:00 – 6:00 pm: Closing Session:The Way Forward(Preston Auditorium)
Project Panel:Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank
Håvard Hegre, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO)
Related Research on the Horizon:
Patricia Justino,
Households in Conflict Network & MICROCON
Philip Oxhorn,
CDAS Research
Karen Ballentine
UNDP Post-Conflict Economic Recovery
1
[1] Dissemination conference for research by the Post-Conflict Transitions Research Project a two year research project at the World Bank and partners at the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) and the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford (CSAE). This research was funded by the Knowledge for Change Program, the Norwegian Government and the Post-Conflict Trust Fund. Background information on the project available at: