Population Age Structure
Theme: Population
Background Information
England’s population is ageing with the numbers aged over 65 increasing at a greater rate than other age groups. This ageing of the populationand associated pressure and demand on health care services will have major implications for future policy and service provision.
Data
The Office for National Statistics releases mid-year population estimates based on the 2001 Census. The latest data are mid-2008 estimates. 2006-based long term Sub-national Population Projections are also determined and give an indication of future trends in population for the period 2006-31.
Cumbria
Analysis of the mid-2008 population estimates by age for Cumbria shows that 16% (79,300) were aged 0-14 years, 64% (319,500) belonged to the 15-64 age group and 20% (97,900) were over 65 years of age. When comparing the Cumbrian age profile to that of England (Figure 1), it should be noted that Cumbria has an older population. There are approximately 19,900 more people over 65 years of age living in Cumbria than you would expect from the England age profile.
Figure 1: Cumbria and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Districts within Cumbria
The age profiles for each district council also reflect this older population in comparison to England with this being particularly pronounced in South Lakeland and Eden (Figures 2-7).
Figure 2: Allerdale and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Figure 3: Barrow-in-Furness and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Figure 4: Carlisle and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Figure 5: Copeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Figure 6: Eden and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Figure 7: South Lakeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Population Projections
2006-based sub-national population projections show variation when analysing the Cumbrian population by specified age groups. Between 2006 and 2031, the only projected increase is for the population aged 65 years and over (74%): a figure in excess of the projected increase for England for this age group (63%). The populations for Cumbria in the 0-14 and 15-64 age groups are projected to decrease by 2% and 1% respectively (Figure 8). This is in contrast to the expected increase in these age groups for England (14% and 10% respectively).
Figure 8: 2006-31 Percentage Change in Population by Selected Age Groups
The breakdown of the projections by district council reveals that a negative percentage change in populations between 2006 and 2031 is expected for the 0-14 and 15-64 age groups for all districts except Carlisle. In addition, the percentage increase in population is greater than that for England for each district council in the 65 and older age group with the exception of Barrow-in-Furness with Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland all having percentage increases in the 65 and over population greater than that of the Cumbrian average.
Cumbria is therefore projected to reflect the national trend of an increasingly ageing population but the rate of change is expected to be much greater.
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01 September 2009