Polocy Impact on Political Preferences of Population: Case of Georgia

POLOCY IMPACT ON POLITICAL PREFERENCES OF POPULATION: CASE OF GEORGIA

Nana Sumbadze

Co-director, Institute for Policy Studies , Tbilisi, Georgia

Despite the striving for equality, stratification remains the organic feature of almost any society, although its base differs from country to country and over the historical period. In the developed countries gender, age, ethnicity, sexual orientation or disability are acknowledged that replaced firmly established as outlined by Max Weber, bases of stratification on class, status and power (Macionis & Plumer, 2008). But in less developed, poor countries residence type –urban against rural is increasingly considered as a stratification principle, reflecting existing inequalities of the population (E.g. Lipton, 1993).

Pioneers of urban sociology considered urbanism as a life style (E.g. Wirth, 1938). They defined towns as occupying big territories, characterized by high density and social variety. Contrary to the urban, rural population is much more characterized by adherence to traditional norms and conservative values. Rural social milieu in lesser degree permits creation of weak social ties, formation of social networks through bridging or linking, rather than bonding and thus shape more uniform social environment (Granovettter, 1973., Putnam, 2000) and is less tolerant and open to new ideas and values.

After two decades since the beginning of transition from the Communist rule, Georgia is still plagued with poverty, which is acknowledged by the population as the most important problem facing the country. The macroeconomic indices of growth has not been reflected on the welfare of the majority of the population. Official data on the level of poverty has not been published since 2004, but in 2004 it was stated that 52.0 percent lived under the poverty line. International Monetary Fund points at the increase of absolute poverty in the period from 2004 to 2007. By expert estimations unemployment rate is at 30.0 percent (UNDP, 2008). More than one third of country’s population qualifies for the stringent criteria for social assistance, majority of them lives in rural areas (World Bank).

High poverty and unemployment push people to migrate, not only out, but also inside the country, increasing urban population. In the period from 2002 to 2008 population of all big cities increased: in the capital Tbilisi by 3.0 percent, in the second biggest city Kutaisi by 1.4 percent, in Batumi by 0.3 percent, in Rustavi by 0.8 percent, in Zugdidi by 4.4 percent, in Gori by 1.7 percent and in Poti by 0.5 percent. Today in the capital and six biggest cities more than one third of population is concentrated (citypopulation).

In the political discourse in Georgia support of population of different political actors more and more is linked with the residence type. Presidential elections in 2008 unequivocally demonstrated popularity of the opposition in the capital. Below are presented the results of the attempt to study the impact of settlement size on the political preferences, hypothesizing that being more conservative, rural population will demonstrate the biggest support to authorities. At the same time we checked the assumption underling this hypotheses of the adherence of rural population to more traditional values was checked.

For testing these assumptions the nation wide representative survey of Georgia’s population carried out by the Institute for Policy Studies in 2008 was analyzed, comparing attitudes of three groups formed by residence type - residents of the capital Tbilisi (22.4 percent), of big cities (17.1%) and of small towns and villages (60.5 percent) were compared.

1. Interest in politics and participation

Georgia declares its adherence to Western values and liberal democracy. Country’s striving to the West is acknowledged as one of the causes of Russia’s assault of August, 2008 (Asmus, 2010). Popular participation in decision-making is considered as one of the fundamental features of effective, liberal democracy (Welzel & Inglehart, 2008). Participation is based on populations interest and their need of participation in politics as well as on the existence of the environment, permitting it.

Interest of population in politics in the country is high, showing decrease with the settlement size. 76.8 percent of Tbilisi inhabitants, 66.5 percent of population of big cities and 50.7 percent of rural population closely monitors political processes. Majority (64.4 percent in the capital, 60.3 percent in big cities and 54.0 percent in villages) regularly watches TV news. The importance of participation is much more acknowledged in Tbilisi, compared to other places. 66.8 percent of Tbilisi, 56.1 percent of population of cities and 52.2 percent of rural population is convinced that the resolution of the problems facing the country is possible only with their participation.

But this high need in participation is confronted with the lack of its possibility. Very few (19.5 percent of Tbilisi, 24.5 percent of rural and 27.2 percent of population of cities) say that have an impact on decisions. And indeed the involvement of citizens in voluntary organizations is extremely low. They participation in collective actions is similarly low, as only 2.8 percent pointed that took part in some kind of action during the year preceding the survey. Also low is the readiness to actively depend one’s rights in case of their violation. More passive forms of protest, like signing petitions, attending meetings and rallies and expressing of one’s opinion in media are most often cited as possible actions, while at the same time much more active forms of protest, like strike, organizing rallies, involvement of media and international organizations are conceived as effective ways of influencing authorities. Readiness to act declines with the size of settlement, being highest in Tbilisi and lowest in rural areas.

Political environment is not perceived by population as conducive to participation. 36.5 percent of inhabitants of big cities, 25.7 percent of villages and 13.6 percent of Tbilisi inhabitants consider that their voices are heard by authorities.

Very high is political nihilism, especially in the capital. 50.2 percent of its inhabitants claim that does not trust any political actor. In the context of the whole country much more trust is expressed towards the authorities - the president and government (31.1 percent), than to opposition (7.3 percent). But the differences across the settlement type are very big. Government is trusted by 14.0 percent of Tbilisi inhabitants, 33.5 percent of rural population and 42.1 percent of city residents.

GGr.1

Trust towards political actors

Political preferences in a considerable degree are reflections of the effectiveness of governance. The most critical to authorities are inhabitants of the capital and the least residents of the cities. 48.7 percent of city, 41.0 percent of rural and 39.1 percent of Tbilisi population thinks that the country is on the right path of development. In similar wane the estimation of respondents towards a number of issues - existence of democracy in the country (8.5 percent in Tbilisi, 24.0 in villages and 34.0 percent in big cities), protection of human rights (9.3 percent in Tbilisi, 20.8 in villages and 31.4 percent in big cities), equality before the law (14.8 percent in Tbilisi, 22.7 in villages and 32.0 percent in big cities), security of private property (7.4 percent in Tbilisi, 26.2 in villages and 37.1 percent in big cities), feeling protected from injustice (10.5 percent in Tbilisi, 26.7 in villages and 30.5 percent in big cities), are the most positive among the residents of cities and the least among Tbilisi inhabitants. Tbilisi population is also the most critical to authorities in their estimation of the existence of the possibility to avoid the August war, as 64.5 percent considers that this was possible. So thinks 56.4 percent of rural population and 55.7 percent of inhabitants of big towns. Degree of liking of the most popular politicians by the inhabitants of the three settlement types points to the highest popularity of representatives of ruling party in big cities and the lowest in the capital. Consequently representatives of opposition parties are the most popular in the capital and the least in big towns.

Table 1

Liking of political figures

*Support enjoyed by the majority of population

To summarize, estimation of political actors and the actions of authorities across the population of different settlement size mostly demonstrates the same pattern – the most critical to the authorities being inhabitants of the capital and the most benevolent being population of the big cities.

2.Democratic values

Different, from observed in regard to political preferences pattern emerges analyzing the adherence of population to democratic values. They are supported much more in the capital, than in big cities or rural areas.

Democracy is considered as the best form of governance more by urban (75.2 percent in Tbilisi and 75.3 percent in big cities) than rural (65.1 percent) population. The importance of forceful dispersion of peaceful manifestation in November, 2007 is estimated by more Tbilisi dwellers (90.6 percent), than by city dwellers (80.6 percent) or by rural (71.9 percent) population. Protection of human rights is considered much more important by city ( 81.2 percent in Tbilisi and 52.3 percent in big towns) than rural (43.3 percent) dwellers.

Adherence to post-materialistic values are linked with self-expression and democratic orientation (Welzel,, Inglehart., & Deutch, 2005). When asked to select two from presented four, two materialistic (maintaining order in the nation and fighting rising prices) and two post-materialistic values (giving people more say in important political decisions and protecting freedom of speech), the majority (58.5 percent) choose one materialistic (most often maintaining order in the nation) and one post-materialistic (most often giving people more say in important political decisions) value. Following Inglehart’s (1977) argument on post-materialistic values arising in secure physical and economic environment, prevalence of materialistic values (35.6 percent) over post-materialistic (4.8 percent) is not surprising. Moreover, materialistic values are much more preferred by the rural population (34.4 percent) than by population of big cities (34.0 percent) or Tbilisi (33.7 percent). Correspondingly choice of post-materialistic values declines with the size of the settlement (7.0 percent of Tbilisi, 6.6 percent of big cities and 3.6 percent of rural inhabitants).

So data clearly demonstrates the decline of the adherence to democratic values with the settlement size, being the most highly valued by the population of the capital and the least by rural inhabitants.

3.Discussion

The analyses proved the existence of two distinct patterns of political preferences and democratic values in relation to settlement size. While popularity of democratic values proved to decline with the size of settlement as assumed, political preferences followed different from the predicted path, being the most benign to authorities in big cities, rather than villages as expected and the least benign in the capital.

Conservatism of rural population is easily explained by the education level (29.3 percent of rural, 46.4 percent of population of big cities and 49.6 percent of Tbilisi population holding University degree), by more access to information and to socially and culturally more versatile environment in the capital and big cities. But accounting for higher preference to authorities demonstrated by the dwellers of big cities poses more difficulties.

Economic wellbeing can be proposed as one of the reasons for the difference, but the data do not support this assumption. If the possibility of in-kind contributions are taken into an account, the difference among settlement types in economic wellbeing becomes insignificant. But significant is the difference in the perception of improvement of economic condition during the past year, as well as estimation of economic prospects in next year and in three years time. In this case the pattern coincides with the pattern revealed in regard to political preferences. Much more inhabitants of big cities point to improvements over the year (30.6 percent against 17.9 percent of rural and 11.2 percent of Tbilisi population) and expect improvements in one year (59.0 percent against 44.7 percent of rural and 44.3 percent of Tbilisi population) and even more in the three years (78.5 percent against 58.4 percent of rural and 55.4 percent of Tbilisi population) time than the inhabitants of either capital or rural areas.

Government policy focused on the development of big towns can explain high economic optimism of the population of big cities. This policy is demonstrated by the decisions of transferring some state institutions (e.g. court, parliament) from the capital to big cities, creating free economic zone in Poti - one of the regional towns, and also by underling the importance of big towns by carrying out the government meetings there, realizing infrastructure and rehabilitation projects, and by frequent visits of the President. This policy seems to have proved quite effective in creating optimism and hopes in the possibility of overcoming poverty and hence securing political support.

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