Opportunities for Building a More Resilient Durban

Systems Analysis Process and Methodology

Date: 29 December 2016

Contents

1Introduction

2Step 1 | Collection of Local Information

3Step 2 | Identification of system challenges

4Step 3 | Identification of key levers of change

5Reflections and lessons learned

Appendix

1Introduction

This report summarizes the research and analysis that Dalberg Global Development Advisors conducted as part of Durban’s participation in the 100 Resilient Cities (100RC) program. The city identified sixteen resilience issues that emerged from its extensive stakeholder engagement process, which took place between March and May 2015. These sixteen issues were consolidated into six resilience focus areas: Bold and Participatory Governance, Knowledge-centred City, Innovative Place-making, Sustainable and Ecological City, Catalytic and Transformative Economy, and Equitable and Inclusive Society. To advance a resilience strategy, the Durban CRO and Project Management team wished to undertake a systems-level analysis of these six resilience Focus Areas. The CRO team felt that, given the broad range of issues inherent in each of these resilience Focus Areas and their interconnectedness, a preliminary challenge was to determine what points for intervention would be the most strategic in catalysing maximum change. The team felt that such a ‘narrowing’ process was particularly important because Phase 2 of the 100RC program would result in a Resilience Strategy for Durban that would need to be clear in terms of its objectives, plans, and actions and should add value to existing city strategies.

The team therefore proposed to begin Phase 2 by undertaking a systems analysis of the resilience Focus Areas that emerged from Phase 1. This step was meant to help identify cross-cutting ‘levers for change’ and potential intervention points that could have catalytic impact across multiple areas. The systems analysis was to be grounded in analytics and data, but also be complemented by a participatory systems-mapping workshop that would draw out new relationships and connections among the resilience Focus Areas and resilience issues, using input from a wide variety of city stakeholders. Durban secured support from Dalberg, Durban’s global strategy partner through 100RC, to lead this piece of work. It was decided that the key output from the systems analysis would be a small number of intervention areas that would then be developed further with local stakeholders and expert input into solution options for each of the resilience Focus Areas.

The Durban CRO team recognized that this preliminary systemic analysis would be foundational in determining the direction of phase 2 of 100RC in Durban and the extent to which the resilience strategy work could be aligned with other city strategies and processes, including the work of the City Planning Commission. Relevant municipal and external stakeholders had to be involved in the process to ensure that the analysis was thorough and that the outputs reflected Durban’s key resilience challenges.

Dalberg and the CRO laid the early foundations for the systems analysis work during discussions with 100 Resilient Cities staff at the 2015 CRO Summit in Mexico City. The CRO Team sought better paths to advance its resilience building efforts, novel approaches to addressing continuous threats, and a capacity to pursue intersecting solutions. Dalberg proposed a process and methodology to analyse and diagnose the six resilience themes (and their underlying issues), then identify key opportunities for interventions that would address them systemically. As part of this process, Dalberg firstly collected local information and expert input, it then used this information to identify the systemic challenges for the focus areas. Finally, Dalberg conducted a cross focus area analysis and synthesis, resulting in a set of recommendations for key levers of change. This document explains how Dalberg conducted the systems analysis, including the process followed for stakeholder engagement, and the methodology for conducting the analysis and refining with stakeholders through workshops and presentations.

2Step 1 | Collection of Local Information

2.1Purpose

The purpose of the first step of the systems analysis process was to better understand the nature of the challenges in Durban by conducting primary and secondary research around the six resilience Focus Areas namely: Bold and Participatory Governance, Knowledge-centred City, Innovative Place-making, Sustainable and Ecological City, Catalytic and Transformative Economy, and Equitable and Inclusive Society.

2.2What did we do?

In January 2016, Dalberg visited Durban and conducted three workshops with stakeholders to introduce them to the systems analysis process and to begin the information collection process. A range of stakeholders were met with, including the City Planning Commissioners (18th January 2016), Municipal sectors (20th January 2016) and the public (20th January 2016).Full attendance lists can be found in Appendix A.

At the opening of all three workshops, our team reviewed the planned systems analysis process. We then provided participants the opportunity to comment on the proposed systems analysis. In the Municipal Sectors and Public workshops, we solicited additional input by assigning each resilience Focus Area a flip chart sheet with two underlying problem statements. We asked the participants to record their comments on these underlying problems. At the conclusion of the Municipal Sectors and Public workshops, we divided participants into groups and asked each group to answer the following key questions on one of the six Focus Areas:

Why do these challenges persist in Durban?
Are there current behaviours/ incentives that are self-reinforcing?
Which actors most influence the problem? What does each have to do differently and/or what does each have to give up for the situation to be improved or solved?

In addition to these workshops Dalberg undertook a combination of desktop research and interviews with stakeholders. A list of the interviews conducted during this step is presented in Table 1.

Table 1: List of research Interviews

Interview / Date
Interview with Dr Mpilo Ngubane, Head: Skills Development, eThekwini Municipality. / 15th January 2016
Interview with residents of the Quarry Road Informal Settlement. / 15th January 2016
Interview with Faizal Seedat, Human Settlements, eThekwini Municipality. / 18th January 2016
Interview with Anna Estevao and Jeff Thomas, FEDUP. / 18th January 2016
Interview with Youth from Global shapers / 19th January 2016
Interview with stakeholders with an interest in the Catalytic and Transformative Economy Theme, eThekwini Municipality. / 19th January 2016
Interview with Informal Traders / 19th January 2016
Interview with Oswald Nzama, Business Support Unit, eThekwini Municipality. / 19th January 2016
Interview with Nirmala Govender, Performance Management Unit, eThekwini Municipality. / 10th March 2016
Interview with Brian O Leary, City Research and Policy Advocacy, eThekwini Municipality. / 15th January 2016
Interview with Janine Hicks - Gender Commission. / 21st January 2016
Interview with Linda Mbonambi, Area Based Management. / 21st January 2016
Interview with Akash Singh, Sigma International (global consulting business). / 15th January 2016.

The desktop research component of the work was challenging as it emerged that information on Durban is often non-existent, out of date or not accessible. For instance, the source used for most of the demographic information on Durban is the South African Census that took place in 2011, five years prior to the conducting of the systems analysis.

Other key reports and data sources that the Dalberg team consulted include:

Integrated Development Plan (IDP (2015)
Long-term development framework
eThekwini Densification strategy
Treasury reports
Spatial Development Framework (2014/15)
Green Services and Industry Analysis
South Durban basin multi-point plan
District Health Barometer (2013/14)
Durban Climate Change Strategy (2014)

Major data sources used:

South African Census (2011)
Municipal Barometer
Municipal Services And Living Conditions Survey (2015)
Edge Labor Market Research Paper (2013)
Constraints to Growth and Employment in South Africa/eThekwini (2015,

2.3Outcomes

The outcomes of this step of the process were:

Minutes of the three workshops.
Detailed analysis of strengths and challenges in Durban, aligned to the six Focus Areas identified in the Durban Preliminary Resilience Assessment. The detailed analysis is provided in the Appendix.
The collation of an electronic library of a range of reports about Durban.

3Step 2 | Identification ofsystem challenges

3.1Purpose

The purpose of the second step of the systems analysis process was to understanding the underlying connections and drivers between the focus areas and so identify a set of systemic challenges to the focus areas.

3.2What did we do?

Our team then spent February conducting further research and analysis from our offices in Johannesburg, Washington DC, and New York City. During these weeks we primarily focused on quantitative analysis to better understand the systemic challenges underlying the six resilience focus areas.

This step of the process was divided into two sub-components:

3.2.1Identification of underlying barriers

Firstly, members of our team reviewing the existing information that exists regarding each Focus Area in Durban and developed a snap shot summary of the key quantitative and qualitative information that was relevant to that focus area. Using this information as a basis the Dalberg team met to collectively review the focus areas and based on that information identify an underlying barrier to resilience within that Focus Area. The Dalberg team provided an assessment of the data available related to each Focus Area, and based on the team’s judgement, we identified what we believed were the main barriers within each Focus Area.

The data appendix provides the detailed analysis that was conducted for each Focus Area, and includes the data sources and reports that were used to complete the analysis. In this section we summarize the analysis for each Focus Area and the conclusions that the Dalberg team came to based on the data and reports that were reviewed. Because some of the conclusions reached regarding challenges and barriers are inherently subjective, we indicate separately where our conclusions are derived directly from the analysis, as well as where we draw conclusions based in part on the analysis and in part on our own broader understanding of urban resilience challenges in South Africa.

Focus Area / Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted
1. Bold and Participatory Governance /

Trends in citizen perceptions and satisfaction rates with municipal engagement processes
Trends in citizen attendance at municipal consultations
Trends in citizen satisfaction with service delivery
Citizen responses to “Most Pressing Problems”
Analysis of poverty rates and employment/unemployment
Data regarding frequency and severity of civil unrest/protests
Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems and municipal organizational structure

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

•A process of stakeholder engagement that is driven by “top-down” rather than “bottom-up” practices

•High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

•An institutional structure within eThekwini Municipality that limits strategic coordination across departments

Additionally, Dalberg inferred these additional barriers that are based on a mix of data-driven insights and analysis, as well as Dalberg’s own subjective understanding of urban issues in South Africa:

•Erosion of trust in leadership, reinforced by service delivery challenges and perceptions of corruption and political cronyism

•A performance management system that reinforces department silos and limits innovation and risk-taking across the municipality

•A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals

Focus Area / Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted
2. Knowledge-centered City /

Expenditures on public education
Trends in costs for education
Trends in budget allocations for education
School enrolment rates
Citizen reported constraints for attending school
Rates of post-matric qualifications; Comparisons by metro area
Literacy rates; Comparisons by metro
Migration rates/numbers, including education levels of migrants
Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems and municipal organizational structure

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

•An under-performing education system

•Low levels of numeracy and literacy for primary and secondary level graduates

•Insufficient skills training or job preparation for tertiary level graduates

•Municipal information systems that are not integrated and insufficient to meet departmental needs

•Lack of consolidated strategic data and innovation team within eThekwini Municipality with the capacity or resources to research, analyse, and present synthesized insights to improve long term planning and decision-making

•A performance management system that reinforces department silos, does not encourage data sharing, and limits innovation and risk-taking across the municipality

Focus Area / Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted
3. Innovative Place-making /

Maps of spatial segregation over time
Expenditure levels for transportation by race, including share of total monthly income
Analysis of travel distances and times by race
Distribution of property prices for various metros
Affordability metrics for housing in various metros
Backlog analysis for infrastructure and services provision

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

•Legacy of segregated spatial planning results in poorer households in urban periphery away from job centers and transportation corridors, as well as limited social integration across races

•High costs of housing near job centers, coupled with high transport costs leads to growth of informal housing settlements

•High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

•Significant backlog for delivery of housing and services due to resource and land limitations and ineffective/uncoordinated execution

•A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals

•Limited innovation/dynamism and low growth within formal economy (relative to needs); Limited investment support leads to low productivity in the informal economy

Focus Area / Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted
4. Sustainable and Ecological City /

Data on level of impact/degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Durban
Data on land use change/transformation
Pollution and health figures around industrial areas (Durban South)
(additional data on housing, transport and economic development was integrated from other Focus Areas)

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

•High levels of poverty placing a heavy financial and environmental burden on the municipality to deliver housing and other essential services to those in need

•High costs of housing near job centers, coupled with high transport costs leads to growth of informal housing settlements and stress on the natural environment

•Limited data or awareness of the value of natural systems for human welfare

•An institutional structure within ETM that limits strategic coordination across departments

•An outdated and ineffective growth and development model biased towards short-term results

•A system of dual governance with limited coordination around shared goals

Focus Area / Data Consulted and Analysis Conducted
5. Catalytic and Transformative Economy /

Unemployment and under-employment rates; Distribution of employment rates
Employment rates by race and educational attainment
Trends in economic inequality over time
Resident survey responses regarding personal state of finances
Distribution of formal and informal employment
Household data on savings rates/capacity
Employment levels and economic sectors of activity within townships
Composition of economic production and employment levels by sector across the local economy
Average wages by economic sector
Change in the composition of economic activity over time
Assessment of Durban’s “green economy” sector
Presence of headquarters of large South African companies in Durban
Ratings related to Ease of Doing Business, including regulatory costs
Rankings related to human wellbeing and happiness
Data on migration rates and skills of migrants
Data regarding citizen sentiments regarding declining social cohesion/belonging
Insights from interviews regarding municipal data systems and municipal organizational structure

Dalberg’s interpretation of this data resulted in the identification of the following barriers and challenges related to this Focus Area:

•Weak data and evidence base to make adequate strategic decisions

•Uncoordinated economic strategy that is not evidence-based or well-implemented and has been ineffective at attracting new and more innovative industries

•A persistently low skills base and insufficient skills training or job preparation for tertiary graduates

•High costs associated with seeking employment or education due to transportation and other expenses

•High levels of unemployment and underemployment and discouraged workers which leads to high dependency rates on public grants, straining resources for infrastructure investments

•In-migration of relatively lower skilled workers places additional strains on job creation and wages, while out-migration of high-skilled workers limits innovation and economic growth