News Release Jordancenter for Social Research, 25 June 2006

News Release – JordanCenter for Social Research, 25 June 2006

NEWS RELEASE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: 25 June 2006

CONTACT: Dr. Musa Shteiwi, (962) 6-56661222,

NEW NATIONAL POLL REVEALS

JORDANIAN NATIONALISM MORE POPULAR

THAN POLITICAL ISLAMISM;

SUPPORT FOR 20 PERCENT QUOTA FOR

WOMEN IN MUNICIPAL COUNCILS STRONG

AMMAN (25 June) – If parliamentary elections were held today, 34.8 percent of voters would choose Jordanian nationalist candidates, and 19.7 percent would choose political Islamist candidates. 30.7 percent - an increase of 13.8 percentage points from a September 2005 poll, would not base their vote on ideological considerations.

60.7 percent support a 20 percent quota of seats for women in municipal councils.

These findings are among those in a national public opinion poll released today by the JordanCenter for Social Research. The poll, conducted between May 9 – 14, 2006, interviewed 1,000 Jordanian citizens, both men and women, at 100 sites throughout the whole of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The poll has a margin of error of ±2.5 percent at 95 percent confidence level.

The poll of thirty questions is the third in a series of national surveys on democratic transformation and political reform in Jordan. The first poll was conducted in September 2005 and the second was conducted in December 2005.

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News Release – JordanCenter for Social Research, 25 June 2006

Jordanians shared their views on what they see as the most important issues and priorities facing the country today; their perceptions of the best way to govern society; their trust in national institutions; their attitudes on justice and procedural fairness; levels of support for various electoral models; attitudes towards the Parliament, municipal elections and political tendencies; and their knowledge of the draft political parties law and the National Agenda.

The JordanCenter for Social Research is an independent, non-profit think tank based in Amman. The field work for this poll was conducted by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants (MEMRC). The poll was supported by the International Republican Institute (IRI).

The poll’s main findings include:

DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION AND POLITICAL REFORM IN JORDAN:

National Public Opinion Poll #3

• According to respondents, the most important problems facing Jordan today are: price increases (33%), the high cost of living (22.2%), unemployment (20.1%), and poverty (13.5%). (The results are similar to the second national poll in December 2005 except that in December the high cost of living came in first place.)

• In an open-ended question, terrorism is considered to be the most important political problem requiring the government’s immediate attention (15.4%), followed by increased instability in Iraq and Palestine and its impact on Jordan (10%), and Jordan’s increased tensions with Hamas (2.9%). 31.5% indicate that there are no political problems.

• 64.4% of Jordanians think that peaceful political participation and protest is the most appropriate way to change the government, while only 7.9% think that violent action is the most appropriate way to change the government.

• 44.5% of respondents think that the 2003 election law (one-person one-vote) is the most appropriate for Jordan; 24.6% support a one-seat one-district system; 15.5% support a mixed (party/electoral lists and district seats) system; while 10.5% support a national proportional lists system.

• If a mixed election system is applied in Jordan, less than half (47.8%) support one vote for each person while 41.1% support two votes for each person. These results reveal that support for one vote has declined by about six percentage points (from 53.7% to 47.8%) and support for two votes has increased by about six percentage points (from 35.4% to 41.1%) since the December poll.

• On the assumption that each person is given one vote in a mixed election system, a majority (62.1%) would choose to vote for the district candidates while only a fourth (24.8%) who would vote for the national lists.
• If parliamentary elections were held today, 34.8% say that they would vote for Jordanian nationalist candidates (a 9.2 percentage points decline since the December poll.) 19.7% say that they would vote for political Islamist candidates (3.7 percentage points lower than the December poll.) About a third (30.7%) indicated that they will not vote on ideological bases, a significant 13.8 percentage points increase since September.

• 40.9% are in favor of dissolving the current parliament and holding early parliamentary elections (a 9.1 percentage points decline since December.) 38.8% are against this option.

• Approximately a fourth (24.9%) of respondents know about the draft municipal law while 60.7% support the 20% quota of seats for women on municipal councils proposed in the draft. A majority of 70.3% say that they will participate in the next municipal elections.

• Only 1.5% of respondents say that they have ever been a member of a political party and only 15.6% of those are still members. Only 2.1% of respondents say that they are thinking of joining a political party in the next 12 months.

• Only 17.8% of respondents say that they will vote for a candidate representing a political party when parliamentary elections are held.

• 66.8% indicate that they will not vote for a party candidate.

• When respondents are asked in an open-ended question which party they would vote for in parliamentary elections, 9.3% say they would vote for the Islamic Action Front, 3.1% for Jordanian nationalist parties, 1.1% for Arab nationalist parties and 0.2% for leftist/socialist parties. 19.5% are either undecided or refused to answer.

• According to respondents, the most well-known political party in Jordan is the Islamic Action Front followed by the National Constitutional Party, the Jordanian Communist Party, the Jordanian Arab Baathist Socialist Party, the People’s Democratic Party (“Hashed”), and the Islamic Centrist Party (“Wasat”) in rank order.

• More than a third (36.4%) of respondents have heard of the National Agenda and 37.5% of these are informed about the recommendations in the Agenda to a large or medium degree. Only 7.1% have visited the website of the Agenda.

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