Tacis National Programme

Statistics 2

Mission to Azerbaijan

2 to 6 April 2001

Published 09/30/2018

Copyright © 2000 by Tacis Services DG 1A, European Commission

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Tacis National Programme

Statistics 2

Mission to Azerbaijan

2 to 6 April 2001

1

Table of Contents

A. Objectives of the mission

B. General observations

B.1. Situation in the State Statistical committee (SSC)

C. Analyse of the current situation of the Tacis projects

C.1. "Statistics 2" and "Statistics 4" contracts

Business register – CC13NL02

Statistical Classifications – AZ12FI01

Industry / Transport Statistics – AZ32NL01

Energy Statistics CC91GB02

Construction / Investments Statistics – AZ33DE02

External Trade Statistics – CC40DE03

Non Observed Economy – NOE – AZ50PL01

Demographic/Migration Statistics - AZ72SE01

Publications and Public Relations – CC04FI02

Agriculture Statistics – AZ20DE01

Equipment – AZ98EU02

Language courses – AZ99CE02

C.2. Social Statistics – AZ75FI01

C.3. Preparation of the contract “Statistics 6”-National Tacis budget 2000

C.4. Country report

C.5. Use of the LFA approach for setting up new project documents

D. Next visit of the Semi-Resident Adviser in Azerbaijan

E. List of annexes

Prepared by:Hans-Ulrich Saretzki

Semi-Resident Advisor for Ukraine, Belarus and South Caucasian Republics

Project code:CC00CE02-7

Archive No.:

A.Objectives of the mission

This mission took place in Baku from April 2nd to 6th 2001. The objectives of the mission of the semi-resident adviser were the following:

  • Analysis of the current situation in implementing the national Tacis budget 1996 – “Statistics 2”contract
  • Discussion of the LFA approach by setting up component descriptions in general,
  • Analysis of the current situation in implementing the national Tacis budget 1998 – “Statistics 4” contract, especially:

Business Register

Construction Statistics

Migration Statistics

NOE component,

  • Preparation of the activities under the “Statistics 4” contract for the next six month,
  • Analysis of the current situation on exchange of external trade data between Eurostat and Azerbaijan,
  • Visit of the Tacis Co-ordinating unit, the Tacis Monitoring group,
  • Tacis support for the PCA, future co-operation under the National Tacis budget 2000,
  • Exchange of information concerning the country report for Azerbaijan,
  • Analysis of the situation concerning equipment support for the statistical office,
  • Monitoring of the sample surveys on industry statistics and internal trade statistics,
  • Analysis of the current situation of the PCA special contract on social statistics,
  • Co-ordination of the statistical support between different donors SIDA Sweden, CIM/GTZ Germany).

B.General observations

B.1.Situation in the State Statistical committee (SSC)

The advisor was informed, that:

The staff received a considerable and important increase of salary at the end of last year.

A change of the structure of the SSC is under preparation. The Main Computer Centre will be reorganised to become a department inside of the SSC. The Statistical Research Institute will become a division of “Statistical methods” inside the SSC.

C.Analyse of the current situation of the Tacis projects

C.1."Statistics 2" and "Statistics 4" contracts

Introduction

The contract “Statistics 2” was prolonged by SCR for one year (till September 15th, 2001).

Azerbaijan used the budget up to already 98%. The contract will be finished very soon for this country. Only a very small number of actions have still to be implemented.

In parallel the “Statistics 4” contract was signed. The financing for Azerbaijan was opened in May 2000. First actions were organised in June 2000.

Business register – CC13NL02

General

There are registered about 130 000 units at 1st January 2001. Local units are partly already included into the register.

Updating of administrative information and economic indicators was organised once in 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999. It included all enterprises. It was organised by the regional statistical offices together with the regional tax, bank and customs authorities. This updating process is well established. But is a formal one. It takes into account all existing administrative sources, which are available on the spot. This is a good idea. But if there are mistakes or old information in the other registers (and there are a lot of them) then it is, of course, not very helpful for the actualisation process. The practice of using register information to organise sample surveys has shown that there are about 30 % of the register that is not updated in relation to reality. It will take a long time to cut especially the no-more-active units from all different registers. It could be quicker to clean the statistical register in a separate way (via an extra sample survey about quality of register information).

Starting from 1st of January 2000 the SSC established a farm register (enterprises and households, which are engaged in agriculture production). Till now there are about 700 000 units included into this new part of the register.

Indicators of achievements

The process of keeping and updating the statistical register in SSC is ongoing. The update for 2000 has been started in January 2001.

All information of the units will be loaded into PC’s. A centralised database is kept at the SSC in Baku.

The relations between the register department and the branch statistics divisions are good.

Information from the register (number of existing enterprises per kind of activity, per region, number of newly established units, number of dead units) is published in the quarterly bulletin on economic development of the country. The main results of the register were presented for the first time in public within the statistical yearbook of Azerbaijan 2000 (page 527 and 528).

The register information was used as basis for sample surveys. The SSC organised such pilot sample surveys in different fields (industry, transport, internal trade, construction, and agriculture statistics). The number of employees was chosen as basic indicator for the sample.

Difficulties, implications and solutions

The management of the SSC decided to start the registration process of physical persons, which are involved in economic activities. This could improve the basis for organising sample surveys. About 50 000 units are already registered now.

The main tasks for the futures are:

  • Study of the latest decision of Eurostat concerning methodological aspects in establishing a statistical register,
  • Organisation of the update of the register,
  • Development of a new software solution for the register.

These aspects will be included in the register component under the “Statistics 4” contract.

It is foreseen to publish the register information (Yellow pages) after receiving the results of the updating process for the year 2000 (in June 2001).

The first activity with the new partner – Statistics Poland is foreseen as study visit in Warschau in September 2001 together with the other South Caucasian republics.

Recommendations

General support for the business register is needed also in the future Tacis program, but one action (consultations, study visits) a year is sufficient.

It is strongly recommended that representatives from the SSC can take part in the common ECE/Eurostat meeting on Business Register in 2001. The Azeri register experts should be included into international events/meetings concerning future directions of register development. They have to be informed about new aspects in international discussions. They need contacts with their partners from other national statistical offices for exchanging experiences and getting to know other possible solutions to their problems.

Assessments

The component is well developed. The CBS experts have done a good job in transfer of knowledge (“Statistics 2” contract). The contact with the new partner – Statistics Poland – has to be established.

Statistical Classifications – AZ12FI01

General

The new classification on products was developed last year in Azerbaijan. It is based on CPA and PRODCOM. The State Committee on Standards decided to introduce it as state standard for the country. It is now obligatory to use this classification. It was introduced in statistics. Since January 1st 2001 all results on industry statistics are published based on the new classification. The SSC received and receives a lot of user questions now. It will take time before all users will understand the new situation and will use the classification in the right way.

Indicators of achievement

The Azeris have accomplished good results in introducing international classifications in the past. A new international classification is now ready to be introduced into practice. It is the classification of “The countries of the World”

Tacis has co-financed the translation and adaptation into Azeri. The SSC will request some more finances to distribute the classification to national organisations (especially to all Azeri embassies in the world).

Difficulties, implications and solutions

Finish colleagues in Helsinki held the last consultation in March 2001. The main points in discussion were the classifications ISCO-88 (on occupations) and ISCED (on education). The next consultation will be held in Tbilisi in August 2001. The terms of references will be concentrated on ISCO-88 and the HS/CN.

Recommendations

The work done by the SSC of Azerbaijan (“Statistics 2” contract) could be used as an example for the other South Caucasian countries (Statistics 4” contract). It is strongly recommended to continue the work as joint component for the three countries together.

Assessments

The Finish colleagues did a very good job. The experts had to be very careful to give advise in balancing the national specificity and international requirements when developing a classification. Changes in the classifications are necessary, but very difficult and costly. It meens, all changes have to be prepared very accurate and serious. All circumstances on the spot have to be checked by the national statisticians to be sure, that the introduction of a new classification could be started. These circumstances include the environments inside of the statistical offices as well as in the economy of the country in general.

Industry / Transport Statistics – AZ32NL01

Indicators of achievements

A new pilot survey was prepared and introduced on structural statistics within the field of industry statistics. The indicators, questionnaire, instructions for the enterprises, sample frame and sample methods were discussed with the EU experts during the last year. The co-operation between the SSC and the CBS of the Netherlands was very fruitful for the Azeri colleagues.

The contract uses already finances coming from the “Statistics 4” contract. The results of the survey are available.

The publication of the results is done in two languages (English and Azeri). The booklet was distributed.

Difficulties, implications and solutions

A sample survey on transport statistics is planned to be organised in 2001. The Azeri experts have drafted a questionnaire. It was translated into English and sent to the new EU partner country – Poland – a month ago. The Azeri’s are waiting for recommendations and advises.

The pilot survey will give the opportunity to better assess and estimate the role and development of the transport sector within the national economy and the SNA.

The advisor will contact the Polish statistical office to ask for reactions on the proposal of all three South Caucasian Republics to organise a first “Fact finding” consultation/study visit in Warschau in May/June 2001.

Recommendations

The advisor has to follow up the first consultation and to check that there are component descriptions developed for all three countries agreed with the Polish statistical Office.

Energy Statistics CC91GB02

General

This component has been started under the “Statistics 2” contract with a common seminar for all three South Caucasian countries in Tbilisi in October 2000. Afterwards, the experts of the three countries have sent the available statistical information on energy balances to the Western expert. He has analysed the situation in the countries and organised a study visit to France.

Last month the EU expert, Mr. Simmons, has visited all three South Caucasian countries and discussed the situation on the spot. The main task was to advise on how to improve the situation in energy statistics in the countries. Country representatives prepared a pilot (sample) survey(s) covering non-observed parts for the energy balance.

Difficulties, implications and solutions

A survey, which will cover all producers of energy, is in preparation in Azerbaijan. The questionnaire is drafted and the content was agreed with Mr. Simmons. Tacis funds will cover the costs (about 7 200 Euro).

Another survey on households was discussed during the consultation of the GB expert. The conditions for this kind of survey are very bad in Azerbaijan. No meters to count used oil or gas in the flats exists. If there are some, than they do not work accurately. They will count consumption only if the oil delivery will be done on a defined level of pressure in the pipeline. Thus, the people cannot measure their consumption. They can provide you only estimated data or the same data, that they have already received from the delivery company (check with indication what has to be paid). Additional, no information on consumption in the past is available. This can only be done in such a way that a document to the families is given before hand, which asks for the collection of data on consumption in the future. Again, this cannot be done if there are no objective possibilities to measure it.

The Azeris came to the conclusion not to organise such kind of survey during the next three years. The costs and the risk are too high to incorrect data. This is not finally decided. It will be discussed again in the methodological council. The SSC will inform the UK expert about the final decision.

Recommendations

The advisor fully agrees with the argument of the Azeri side. If there is no way to measure something, it would be advisable not to invest money and manpower for doubtful data.

The advisor supports fully the proposal from Mr. Simmons to invite one Azeri expert to London for a study visit. It would be very helpful to see the experiences in UK in organising statistics from the oil and gas companies. He has checked the possibilities to pay from Tacis funds such visit. Unfortunately, there are no reserves within the ongoing contract.

Assessments

The Azeris are now very thankful for the support the UK expert has given to them. The first misunderstandings occurring the seminar in Tbilisi are clarified now.

Construction / Investments Statistics – AZ33DE02

General

This is a component continuation from the “Statistics 2” contract. The transfer of knowledge was done there. The introduction of pilot surveys is foreseen under the “Statistics 4” contract.

Indicators of achievements

The pilot survey on permissions for constructions was introduced in 2000 financed by Tacis. The results are available. A publication of the results was prepared in English and Azeri. It was distributed to the Tacis authorities, local ministries and other users. The results were used to improve the macro economic indicators in Azerbaijan, to recalculate the GDP and to get a better quality of economic indicators characterising the development in construction.

The advisor distributed the translation (Russian version) of the German questionnaire on investment statistics to the Azeri colleagues.

A new survey on constructed summerhouses (datschas) was established last year. It was ordered by the government and financed by the state budget.

Difficulties, implications and solutions

A consultation was held in Baku by the German experts in March 2001. They discussed the second pilot survey on construction companies. The draft questionnaire was prepared and presented. The Azeri received comments and recommendations. The draft questionnaire was changed and is now ready for implementation. The SSC has sent a cost calculation to cesd. Cesd will prepare the contract after receiving the commitment from DG Aidco in Brussels.

The SSC has to install a new pilot survey ordered by the government and paid by the state budget. It will cover all non-finished construction work of state construction enterprises. It will be introduced during 2001.

Assessments

This is a smoothly running component.

External Trade Statistics – CC40DE03

General

Foreign trade data are available. They are comparable with European data in general from the methodological point of view. The quality of data coming from the customs declarations is unknown and may include a lot of mistakes.

The data exchange with Eurostat is organised. The data for the first three quarters of 2000 were transmitted. The data for the fours quarter will be sent immediately. Mistakes and problems will be discussed with the advisor, if he will receive comments from the responsible unit of Eurostat.

The management of the SSC stressed the high interest to get the new version of EUROTRACE based on Windows as soon as possible.

Indicators of achievement

The SSC has dealt with mirror statistics exercises with Georgia during the ‘Statistics 1” and “Statistics 2” contracts. Positive results were reached. The reasons for differences between these two countries are well known now.

The international classification “Countries of the World” is introduced in Azerbaijan since January 2001.

The index on physical value and the price index on import and export of goods are calculated starting from January 2001. They are published within the monthly bulletin on “Development of economics of the country”.

As in Azerbaijan the Component includes external and internal trade together, we have to take into account, that 15 000 Euro were already allocated to the financing of an internal trade pilot sample survey.

This survey of physical persons involved in internal trade was organised and financed through the Tacis component in 2000. The results are available now. The publication in English and Azeri was done and distributed to Tacis authorities, national users and other interested organisations.

Difficulties, implications, solutions

The SSC would like to start the mirror statistics now with the new EU partner – Germany. The German statistical office is ready to do it. They will send a proposal for the first meeting on this issue after Eastern to Baku. The first step has to include the data exchange for two years (1999 and 2000) on the lowest level of import and export of goods between the countries. The terms of references for the meeting could be defined only having analysed the data and defined the problems.