MECA Market Growth Road Map – Population Data

June 2007

Regulatory Item / Population Data / Notes
LDVs/LDTs
Tier 2
LEV II
ZEV / Total North American LDV/LDT production (2002): 16,196,853
-By country:
U.S.: 12,001,302
Canada: 2,513,836
Mexico: 1,681,715
-By vehicle type:
North America car: 7,443,976
North America truck: 8,752,877
(2002 Market Data Book, Automotive News)
U. S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2005 totaled approximately 17 million units with passenger cars representing 48.5% of sales, light-duty trucks 51.5% of sales
Total number of U.S. registered passenger cars (2004): 136,430,651
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2006, Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
Total number of truck sales in U.S in 2006 (Classes 3-7): 312,244
(Source: Light & Medium Truck, November 2006)
ARB projects new vehicle sales of gasoline PZEVs in California to be approximately 750,000 in 2012.
ARB projects new vehicle sales of AT PZEVs in California to be approximately 150,000 in 2012.
(Source: ARB)
Diesel vs. Gasoline Registration: January – June 2006
Gasoline Diesel
Class 3: 25.5% 74.5%
Class 4: 41% 59%
Class 5: 12% 88%
Class 6: 24% 76%
Class 7: 1% 99%
(Source: Light & Medium Truck, November 2006)
2006 Med. & Heavy Duty Truck Sales
Class 1-3: 8,430,043
Class 4: 86,904
Class 5: 49,466
Class 6: 70,029
Class 7: 284,008
(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007)
Tier 3/LEV III / LEV compliant states projected to be about 33% of total U.S. sales in 2011 / States currently committed to ARB standards: Oregon, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine, Pennsylvania, Maryland
Japan Vehicle Sales / 2006 Passenger Car & Light Truck Dom. 5,342,651
Imports: 262,046
Med. & Heavy Truck 109,212
(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007)
European Vehicle Sales / 2006 Light Vehicle Sales Dom. 13,432,588
Imports: 1,932,409
(Source: Automotive News, Jan. 22, 2007)
Greenhouse Gas / ca. 2 million LDV/LDT sold in CA annually
Highway Motorcycles / Total sales of highway motorcycles in 2000 were estimated to be 438,000. (Source: U.S. EPA NPRM, 8/02)
U.S. sales of all new motorcycle reached 1,050,000 units in 2004 (Motorcycle Industry Council)
In 1998, there were about 5.4 million highway motorcycles in use in the U.S. (565,000 of which are dual-sport). Total sales of highway motorcycles in 1998 were estimated to be 411,000, or about 72 percent of motorcycle sales. About 13,000 of these were dual-sport motorcycles. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council) / Honda, Harley Davidson, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and BMW account for nearly 95 percent of all motorcycles sold. Dozens of other minor players make up the remaining few percent. Based on available information, over half of all motorcycles sold in 1998 were made by Honda and Harley Davidson, with the two companies maintaining almost equal market shares of about 25 percent each
2003 market share info: Honda-27.4%; Harley-23.7%; Yamaha-17.4%; Suzuki-10.8%; Kawasaki-8.7%
Light-duty Aftermarket Converters / New aftermarket converters manufactured for sale in North America (2006): approximately 2.9 million (Source: MECA)
Upgrade Light-duty Catalytic Converters / 6-8 million 1984-1994 MY LDVs in CA
(Source: conversations with Paul Hughes of ARB)
On-Road HDEs
Phase II / Based on data from engine manufacturers, it was estimated that engine sales in 1995 were:
-Light heavy-duty engines: 280,000
-Medium heavy-duty engines: 140,000
-Heavy heavy-duty engines: 220,000
Numbers are projected to grow at an annual rate of two percent without compounding through 2035. Therefore, estimated 2003 sales would be:
-LHD: 328,066
-MHD: 164,031
-HHD: 257,765

(Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document)

In April 2005 a report released by R. L. Polk & Co. analyzed new vehicle registration data from 2000 through 2004. Light heavy-duty diesel vehicle (diesel pick-ups) registrations increased from 278,136 in 2000 to 433,787 in 2004 (56% increase)
In December 2005 Merrill Lynch reported Class 8 diesel truck sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 299,448 units compared to 227,877 units for the same 12 month period ending Nov. 30, 2004. Class 5-7 truck sales for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2005 were 231,946 units compared to 226,706 units for 12 months ending Nov. 30, 2004. / Market Share for Class 8 diesel engines (Source: Merrill Lynch):
2004 2003 2002
Caterpillar 30.2% 33.8% 34.0%
Cummins 25.4% 20.5% 23.5%
DDC 18.3% 16.6% 21.8%
Mack 9.6% 10.4% 12.3%
Mercedes 8.3% 10.3% 1.6%
Navistar 3.4% 4.3% 4.0%
Volvo 4.8% 4.1% 2.8%
Market Share for Class 8 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch):
2005 2004
DC 36% 36%
PACCAR 23% 26%
Navistar 19% 19%
Volvo 19% 19%
Others 3% 1%
Market Share for Class 5-7 truck sales (Source: Merrill Lynch):
20052004
Navistar 27% 26%
DC 20% 20%
Ford 20% 22%
GMC 15% 12%
PACCAR 4% 4%
Others 13% 16%
Off-Road Engines
Nonroad CI Engines / EPA anticipates that approximately 800,000 new nonroad diesel engines annually will be subject to the nonroad rulemaking (figure based on annual sales of nonroad diesel engines). (Source: U.S. EPA)
Projected breakdown of the number of engines to be affected annually by EPA’s nonroad rule:
Rated Power / Percentage Breakdown
of 2000 Population / Number of Engines
<11 hp / 6% / 48,000
11-25 hp / 13% / 104,000
25-50 hp / 17% / 136,000
50-70 hp / 12% / 96,000
70-100 hp / 20% / 160,000
100-175 hp / 16% / 128,000
175-750 hp / 16% / 128,000
>750 hp / 0.3% / 2,400
(Source: Percentage breakdown of 2000 population by U.S. EPA; Projection of number of engines by MECA) / EPA estimates that there are approximately 2 million pieces of construction equipment operating in the U.S.
U.S. and Canada 2006 Sales Forecast for new farm wheel tractors and self propelled combines:
Equipment / U.S. / Canada
2-wheel drive tractors / 205,834 / 16,575
4-wheel drive tractors / 3,401 / 612
Combines / 6,232 / 1,490
(Source: Association of Equipment Manufacturers)
Nonroad SI Engines >25 hp / -Total large SI engine sales are about 150,000 per year in the U.S. (Source: U.S. EPA)
-Population of large SI engines estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 442,000
-ARB estimates current lift truck population in CA at approx. 40,000 units (about 30,000 with SI engines, the rest are electric) / Sales are distributed rather evenly among several companies, so typical sales volumes for each company range generally from 10,000 to 25,000 engines per year.
Recreational SI Engines / Off-Highway Motorcycles
-Total sales of off-highway motorcycles in 2001 was estimated to be 195,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke off-highway motorcycles estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 801,320
-Population of 4-stroke off-highway motorcycles estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 394,680
-In 1998, off-highway motorcycles comprised 28 percent of total motorcycle sales. (Source: Motorcycle Industry Council)
Snowmobiles
-Total sales of snowmobiles in 2001 were estimated to be 228,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke snowmobiles estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,512,675
ATVs
-Total sales of ATVs in 2001 were estimated to be 880,000. (Source: U.S. EPA Regulatory Support Document, 9/02)
-Population of 2-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 405,000
-Population of 4-stroke ATVs estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 3,505,000 / EPA is aware of five major companies that dominate sales of off-highway motorcycles. Four of these companies, Honda, Kawasaki, Suzuki, and Yamaha, are long established, major corporations that manufacture a number of products including highway and off-highway motorcycles. They have dominated the off-highway motorcycle market for over thirty years. The fifth major company, KTM, is also long established but has had a major impact in domestic sales over the last 10 to 15 years. These five companies account for approximately 90 to 95 percent of all domestic sales for off-highway motorcycles.
Based on available industry information, four major snowmobile manufacturers, Arctic Cat, Bombardier (also known as Ski-Doo), Polaris, and Yamaha, account for approximately 99 percent of all domestic snowmobile sales
The ATV sector has the broadest assortment of major manufacturers. With the exception of KTM, all of the companies noted above for off-highway motorcycles and snowmobiles are significant ATV producers. These seven companies represent over 95 percent of total domestic ATV sales. The remaining 5 percent come from importers who tend to import inexpensive, youth-oriented ATVs from China and other Asian nations
Nonroad SI Engines <25 hp / Handheld (Source: PPEMA)
-Chain Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered chain saws fell 10 percent to 2,126,680 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels. Using EPA NONROAD2005 model, EPA estimates that there are approximately 5,870,500 2-stroke chain saws <6 hp.
-Trimmers, Edgers and Brushcutters: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered trimmers and brushcutters increased 9 percent to 4,749,500 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. During 2001, industry shipments of gasoline-powered edgers increased 16 percent to 77,350 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent. Using EPA NONROAD2005 model, EPA estimates that there are approximately 15,400,000 2-stroke trimmers, edgers and brushcutters and approximately 256,941 4-stroke trimmers, edgers and brushcutters.
-Handheld Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered hand held blowers increased 15 percent to 1,895,030 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent.
-Backpack Blowers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered backpack blowers increased 6 percent to 308,450 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 2 percent.
-Cutoff Saws: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered cutoff saws decreased 2 percent to 119,720 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would remain at 2000 levels.
-Hedge Trimmers: During 2000, industry shipments of gasoline-powered hedge trimmers increased 19 percent to 380,900 units. It was estimated that industry shipments for 2001 would increase 5 percent. / Recent (statements made in 2005) EPA estimates for Class 1 (< 225 cc non-handheld) engine production in the U.S. are approximately 9-10 million engines; for Class 2 (> 225 cc non-handheld) approximately 4.5 million engines
Data presented by EPA at the October 5, 2005 small engine workshop indicate major engine manufacturers for non-handheld equipment include: Briggs & Stratton (> 50% share), Tecumseh, Honda, Kohler, Kawasaki, Fuji, and Onan. Major equipment manufacturers for non-handheld equipment include: EHP, MTD, Briggs & Stratton, Murray, Toro, Honda, Deere, and Ariens.
Nonroad SI Engines <25 hp (continued) / Non-handheld (Source: OPEI)
-For the 2001 model year, shipments of consumer walk-behinds were forecast to decrease by 1.8% to 6,031,941, while all riding units were forecast to drop 3.8% to 1,650,797. For 2002, consumer walk-behinds were forecast to be down 0.7%, and all riding units would drop 1.5%.
-2006 North American market forecast for new lawn and garden equipment: gasoline-17,252,526; diesel- 48,418 (Source: Power Systems Research, December 2005)
-According to EPA’s analysis on the potential impacts of its proposed emission standard for nonroad SI engines (April 2007), population of small SI Class I engines would decrease by 2.2% (down 219,400 engines to total of 9,972,700 engines) and by 4.3% (down 157,306 engines to total of 3,658,300 engines) for Class II engines by 2013. By 2018, the population of small SI Class I engine would decrease by 1.8% (down 189,771engines to total of 10,542,800 engines) and by 2.8% (down 113,999 engines to total of 4,071,400 engines) for Class II engines. By 2030, the population of Class I engine would decrease by 1.8% (down 225,168 engines to total of 12,509,300 engines) and 2.8% (down 135,400 engines to total of 4,835,700 engines) for Class II engines.
Marine SI Outboard/PWC / -In 2000, NMMA estimated that 241,600 outboard motors and 92,000 personal watercraft were sold. (Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
-2006 market forecast for new marine SI engines: 429,309 (Source: Power Systems Research, December 2005)
-Population of 2-stroke personal water craft estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,205,783
-According to EPA’s analysis on the potential impacts of its proposed emission standard for marine SI engines (April 2007), population of PWC would decrease by: 5.6% (down 4,819 engines to total of 86,050 engines) by 2013; 4.2% (down 3,766 to total of 89,670 engines) by 2018; and 4.2% (down 4,076 to total of 97,050 engines) by 2030. For outboard engines, EPA estimates that the population of OB engines (recreational and luxury) would decrease by: 3.5% (down 4,692 engines to total of 134,060 engines) by 2013; 2.7% (down 3,725 engines to total of 137,960 engines) by 2018; 2.8% (down 4,096 engines to total of 146,290 engies) by 2030.
Marine SI Inboard/Sterndrive / -Population of sterndrive boats in 2002: 1,767,100
-Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 1,705,700
-Population of 4-stroke inboard/sterndrive boats estimated using EPA NONROAD2005 model: 1,866,552
-Retails sales estimates of sterndrive boats in 2002: 68,400
-Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association)
-According to EPA’s analysis on the potential impacts of its proposed emission standard for marine SI engines (April 2007), population of I/SD engines would decrease by: 1.4% (down 1,336 engines to total of 95,430 engines) by 2013; 1.1% (down 1,072 engines to total of 97,460 engines) by 2018; and 1.1% (down 1,161 engines to total of 105,540 engines) by 2030.
- / Recent statements made by NMMA (April 2005) indicate 2004 sales of sterndrive/inboard gasoline engines were approximately 140,000 units with the following breakdown:
5.0 or 5.7 L V8 – ca. 80,000 engines
4.3 L V6 – ca. 30,000 engines
8.1 L V8 – ca. 9,000 engines
Recreational CI Marine / Population of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 1,705,700
Retail sales estimates of inboard boats (CI and SI) in 2002: 20,800
(Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association) / EPA estimates that the market for new recreational marine diesel engines would be approximately 10,000 per year if EPA implements its proposed emission standards for new marine engines.
Commercial CI Marine / 2006 North American market forecast for new marine CI engines: 45,222 (Source: Power Systems Research, December 2005) / EPA estimates that the market for new commercial CI marine engines would approximately 5,000-6,000 per year if EPA implements its proposed emission standards for new marine engines.
Locomotives / -Total number of Class I locomotives (2004): 22,015
-Total number of Amtrak locomotives (2004): 276
-Class I locomotive deliveries (2004): 1,121
(Source: National Transportation Statistics 2006, Bureau of Transportation Statistics) / EPA estimates that the market for new GE, EMD large locomotives would be approximately 1,000/year and approximately 200/year of switcher locomotives if EPA implements its proposed emission standards for new locomotives.
Stationary CI Engines/SI Engines / -EPA estimates 81,500 new stationary CI engines sold in U.S. annually
(Source: EPA Stationary CI Engine NPRM, July 2005)
-EPA estimates that by 2010, there will be approximately 240,000 SI engines>50 hp. / -Breakdown of SI engines by types:
42% 4-stroke rich-burn engines
47% 4-stroke lean-burn engines
11% 2-stroke lean-burn engines
-SI engine population <500 hp by industry segment:
56% crude petroleum and natural gas
20% natural gas transmission
Diesel Retrofit
School Buses / In 2001, there were approximately 454,000 total school buses in the U.S. (Source: “Pollution Report Card”, Union of Concerned Scientists, Feb. 2002) / Breakdown of U.S. school bus population by model year and state can be found in the full UCS report:
Transit Buses & Transit Fleet Vehicles (CA) / In 2001, 6,656 total diesel urban buses (pre-88: 975, 88-90: 1656, 91-93: 1435, 94-95: 359, 96-02: 2331) (Source: ARB presentation, “Workshop – Transit Bus Fleet Rule”, El Monte, June 25, 2002)
Transit Fleet Vehicles in CA total approximately 3,500 diesel vehicles with GVW of 8500 lb. or greater
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for transit fleet vehicles, January 2005)
Solid Waste Collection Vehicles (CA) / There are approximately 13,000 solid waste collection vehicles statewide (Source: conversation with ARB’s Nancy Steele)
In Los Angeles, 683 city-owned vehicles in refuse fleet (661 belong to the Bureau of Sanitation). (Source: ARB report, “Preliminary Assessment of Technology for Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003) / Breakdown by engine manufacturer statewide: Cummins - 65%, Volvo - 13%, Caterpillar - 12%, International/Navistar - 5%, Detroit Diesel - 2%, Mack - 2%, Other - 1%
Breakdown by fleet application statewide: side loader - 39%, rear loader - 29%, front end loader - 25%, rolloff - 7%
(Source: ARB report, “Preliminary Assessment of Technology for Diesel Particulate Matter Reduction from Solid Waste Collection Vehicles”, Appendix C, April 2003)
Fuel Tanker Trucks (CA) / ca. 3200 trucks operating in CA (14,000 lb. GVW or greater)
50% of the fleet is 98 MY or newer
(Source: ARB workshop presentation from September10, 2003 public workshop)
Public & Utility HDV Fleets (CA) / ARB estimates for heavy-duty diesel public and utility fleet vehicles operating in California (over 14,000 lb. GVWR):
Owned by state & local agencies: 23,227 vehicles
Owned by private utilities: 3,979 vehicles (3,130 of these owned by 3 largest utilities: Southern California Edison, PG&E, Sempra Energy)
Federally owned: 2,663 vehicles
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for public and utility fleet vehicles, October 2005)
ARB inventory data show more than 49 vehicle types with the following distribution of engine ages:
- pre-1987: 15%
-1988-1990: 12%
-1991-1993: 17%
-1994-2003: 55%
Ground Support Equipment (CA) / Number of diesel GSE in SouthCoast (1997 fleet):
-pre-90: 396
-post-90: 553
Number of diesel GSE in rest of CA (1999 fleet): ~1,225
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002)
ARB estimates that there are approximately 1,521 total airport ground support equipments in California (2005 fleet). / Breakdown of GSE in SouthCoast (1997 fleet):
-diesel aircraft tractors: pre-90: 94, post:-90: 64
-diesel baggage tractors: pre-90: 73, post-90: 97
-diesel cargo tractors: pre-90: 1, post-90: 15
-diesel belt loaders: pre-90: 32, post-90: 59
-diesel cargo loaders: pre-90: 36, post-90: 99
-diesel air conditioners: pre-90: 4, post-90: 6
-diesel air starts: pre-90: 41, post-90: 32
-diesel ground power units: pre-90: 69, post-90: 75
(Source: Air Transport Association presentation, “DPF Demonstration/Verification Project”, September 23, 2002)
Transport Refrigeration Units (CA) / Existing population: 40,831 (Source: ARB presentation, “Regulatory Approaches to Reduce Particulate Matter Emissions from Transport Refrigeration Units”, March 6, 2003)
Stationary Engines (CA) / Emergency standby engines: 11,350
Prime engines: 1,360
(Source: ARB presentation, “Presentation of the Methods and Key Assumptions for Estimating the Costs for In-Use Stationary Engines”, March 6, 2003)
Cargo Handling Equipment (CA) / ARB estimates that there are approximately 3,700 mobile cargo handling equipment vehicles at California’s ports and intermodal rail yards. Equipment types include:
Yard Trucks (61% of the population)
Container Handling (13%)
Forklifts (13%)
Cranes (9%)
Bulk Cargo Handling (4%)
(Source: ARB staff report on regulations for mobile cargo handling equipment, October 2005)
Heavy-Duty Trucks Involved in Domestic and International Goods Movement in California / Port trucks involved in CA goods movement: ca. 20,000
In-Use Off-road Diesel Engines >25 hp(CA)
More information on ARB’s California Public Fleet Heavy-Duty Vehicles and Equipment Inventory is available at:
/ -Construction/Mining Equipment:
Tier 0: 35,468
Tier 1: 80,813
Tier 2: 45,302
-Industrial Equipment:
Tier 0: 4,292
Tier 1: 5,115
Tier 2: 1,724
-Airport Ground Support Equipment:
Tier 0: 124
Tier 1: 498
Tier 2: 452
Tier 3: 290
Tier 4 interim: 208
ARB estimates that, as of 2005, there are approximately:
-Construction/Mining Equipment; 152,001
-Industrial Equipment: 17,811
-Oil Drilling: 578
-Airport Ground Support Equipment: 1,521
Public and Private Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks (CA) / Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Population Distribution 2006:
-Medium-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck:
-Private Fleet: 186,715
-Public Fleet: 19,637
-Heavy-Heavy Duty Diesel Truck:
-Private Fleet: 126,870
-Public Fleet: 21,011
-Out-of-State: 50,538
-Trash Truck: 12,732
2008 Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Inventory (excludes public fleets, urban buses, or solid waste collection vehicles):
-CA Registered Class 4-7: 191,865
-CA Registered Class 8: 127,213

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MECAJune 2007