Application of Probabilistic Planning Workshop1

Objectives:

  • Review the regulatory landscape and the place for application of probabilistic and risk-informed planning
  • Discuss application of probabilistic planning for reliability compliance with NERC TPL Reliability Standards
  • Discuss role of risk-based approach for operational planning
  • Discuss application of probabilistic planning for commercial assessment

Participants:

  • Transmission Planners and Transmission Operators
  • Transmission customers
  • Regulators
  • Industry experts

8:30Safety Briefing

8:35Introductions

Attendees will be asked to introduce themselves by name and affiliation

8:45 Welcome

Jeff Cook, VP of BPA Transmission Planning, will provide an overview of transmission planning challenges and opportunities facing the region

9:00 Session 1 -- Role of Probabilistic Analysis in Reliability Planning and Operations, (facilitator Hamody Hindi, BPA)

-Presentation 1 (Jeff Billinton group, Eric Heredia)

  • Review of Planning Reliability Standards
  • Divergence between planning and operating standards
  • IROLs vs. TTCs vs. SOLs
  • When loss of load or firm transmission curtailment is allowed

-Presentation 2 (Hamody, Tracy)

  • Case study for local area transmission reinforcement
  • What is the consequence of loss of load?
  • What is the consequence of loss of load?
  • How to use risk assessment to prioritize transmission reinforcements
  • Planning for operational flexibility

-Presentation 3

  • Case study for wide area transmission reinforcement
  • What is the reliability consequence of firm transmission curtailment?
  • What is acceptable risk for load loss or firm transmission curtailment (expected magnitude, frequency of occurrence, and duration until restoration)
  • Risk-based approach for always credible vs. conditionally credible contingencies in operating
  • Role of safety nets
  • Does RAS increase or decrease risk

-Presentation 4 ?

  • Topics not covered yet
  • Resource Adequacy (role of transmission)
  • Lessons from history
  • Reliability risks of the future
  • What are acceptable ways to implement loss of load
  • Is a risk based process consistent and robust?
  • 2003 event, generation loss caused a problem (Eddie E. brought up generation loss and looking at Risk associated with that)
  • Also look at variable generation, risk associated with that, also DG

11:30 Lunch on your own

12:30 Session 2 --- Role of Probabilistic Analysis in Commercial Planning Part 1, (facilitator Anita Heredia, BPA)

-Overview of BPA current commercial practices

-What is customer’s expectation of “firm” service

-Application of risk to ATC methodology

-What studies are needed to performed to ensure quality of “firm” service

-“Firm” load service versus market operations

-What are the characteristics of conditional firm

-Application of risk to scenario planning

-Application of risk to production cost modeling

-(commercial is very different in PNW vs. California)

-(people on the phone were quieter on this, maybe we need to reach out to our transmission customers on this one)

-We take 30 years to pay for a line, but our contracts only last five years, we might get stuck with the bill for 25 years? Account for risk?

-Maybe we want a regional focus, especially for commerical

3:30 Takeaways and Next Steps

4:00 Meeting Adjourn

For out-of-town attendees, the following hotels are within walking distance from the meeting location:

Double Tree by Hilton Lloyd Center,

1000 NE Multnomah St, Portland, OR 97232

(503) 281-6111

Residence Inn by Marriott Portland Downtown / Convention Center,

1710 NE Multnomah St, Portland, OR 97232

(503) 288-1400

Courtyard by Marriott Portland Downtown / Convention Center,

435 NE Wasco St, Portland, OR 97232

(503) 234-3200

Transportation Options:

Portland TrimetMAX, Red Line Starts at Portland Airport and stops close to the above hotels and workshop location