USC Marshall Global Executive MBA Program
Managerial Statistics Syllabus and Schedule
Sessions (see schedule): June 22 – 26, 2015 in LA; August 13 – 17, 2015 in Shanghai
Professor: Dawn Porter, 401S Bridge Hall
Email: ,
Office phone: +1 213-821-2599; Office fax: +1 213-740-7313
Cell phone: +1 917-225-1065
We will cover the basic tools and concepts of empirical analysis: descriptive statistics, exploratory data analysis, statistical relationships (including regression and correlation), causation, sampling, and statistical inference (including significance tests and confidence intervals). In this context we will use a variety of statistical methods to analyze data. The concepts in statistics reappear in other GEMBA themes particularly those emphasizing economics, finance, operations and marketing. It will be worth your effort to understand the statistical concepts and methods from this module.
Prerequisites
You should be familiar with algebra at the pre-calculus level. Some computer literacy is necessary; you should have access to and feel comfortable running a Windows, Macintosh or Linux operating system (pointing, dragging, clicking etc.). In addition, you should be familiar with elementary probability concepts.
You will be using your own computer to plot and analyze data. We will be using Excel for the Los Angeles portion of the theme in June, and then in August I will introduce you to Minitab and to the graphical and analytical capabilities of the program. Minitab resembles a spreadsheet in some ways but has many specialized graphical features that we will use that are not found in Excel and its cousins. Working with Minitab will have carryover value for other GEMBA themes, particularly for projects, and for any quantitative work you do as part of your job. You will NOT need to access the program until we meet again in Shanghai. When we get to that point, there are a few options for acquiring the use of Minitab:
1. Purchase a full version from www.minitab.com .
2. Access the software through the mymarshall.usc.edu website under the Services – Marshall Virtual Lab option (if you are using a Mac, you will have to choose this option because Minitab is currently only available to PC users).
3. Download a free 30-day trial version of the software, again at www.minitab.com . If you choose this option, you should wait to do this until we are discussing the Regression topics.
Course Materials
Hildebrand, DK, RL Ott, & JB Gray (2005), Basic Statistical Ideas for Managers 2nd ed, Duxbury. (HOG). Optional: S.S. M. Basic Statistical Ideas for Mangers (this is the solution manual).
In preparing for each class, your first priority should be to read the annotated PowerPoint slides for that session. These are in your binders and/or are posted electronically. The syllabus and schedule below list the readings in each of the source materials corresponding to each class session. The HOG text should be used as a reference and a source of problems to work to insure that you understand the concepts and methods. A list of relevant problems in HOG with solutions will be provided for you. Some of you who want more details on the derivations and uses of concepts we cover will find the HOG text useful for that purpose. The data sets used in class and for assignments will also be posted electronically in Sharepoint.
Course Grades
All GEMBA themes have a target average grade of 3.4 (on a 4-point scale). The final grade in the Managerial Statistics module will have three components: your individual assignment, your group regression project (no more than 5 people), and the in-class quizzes.
1. Inter-session Assignment (25%). You will be required to carry out an assignment after our June sessions. It is due July 17th by the end of the day (midnight) PST and will be handed in electronically. You will need to use Excel (or something similar) to carry out the analysis for this assignment. Details on format and content will be provided in “Inter-session Assignment” handout. Since late assignments delay when solutions can be issued, please do not ask to turn in assignments late. Any requests for changes in assignment grades due to grading errors must be made within two weeks of when the assignments are returned.
2. Group Regression Project (35%). You will be required to carry out a group (no more than 5 people) multiple regression project after our August sessions. It is due September 11th by the end of the day (midnight) PST and will also be turned in electronically. You will need to use Minitab to carry out the analysis for this project. You will be responsible for obtaining your own data for the project, but I will post suggested websites and sources for various types of datasets in case you need them. Details on format, content and grading will be provided in the “Group Regression Project” description in the August notebook.
3. In Class Quizzes (40%). There will be two in-class quizzes. Each will count for 20% of your grade. The quizzes will be a combination of short-answer and multiple-choice questions. Attached to the quizzes will be a “formula sheet” containing all the equations and formulas necessary for the course up to that point. Practice quizzes in the same format and content will be posted in advance of the quizzes.
Schedule for June 2015
Session / Topic / Reading / Due1 / Introduction to Statistics & Descriptive Statistics / HOG, Chapters 1 & 2
2 / Descriptive Statistics & Probability (random variables and distributions) / HOG, Chapters 3, 4.1 – 4.4
3 / Probability (normal distribution, expected value, standard deviation) / HOG, Chapters 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5
4 / Sampling Distributions / HOG, Chapter 6
Statistics & Finance / Correlation and Covariance / HOG, Chapter 11.5
5 / Inference: Confidence Intervals / HOG, Chapter 7
6 / Inference: Significance Tests for the Mean / HOG, Chapter 8 / In Class Quiz
7 / Complete Significance Tests
Discussion of Assignment
(Due July 17) / Catch-up and
Inter-session Assignment instructions
The readings listed above are in addition to the annotated PowerPoint slides for the session. The schedule for our August sessions in Shanghai will be distributed as part of your August notebook.
Marshall Global Executive MBA Program
Schedule for August 2015
Session / Topic / Reading / Due8 / Methods for Analyzing Categorical Data / HOG, Chapter 9
9 / Simple Linear Regression I: Introduction / HOG, Chapter 11
10 / Simple Linear Regression II: Model Assumptions / HOG, Chapter 11
11 / Simple Linear Regression III: Confidence & Prediction Intervals / HOG, Chapter 11
12 / Simple Linear Regression IV: Nonlinearity / HOG, Chapter 11
13 / Multiple Linear Regression I: Basic Model & ANOVA Table / HOG, Chapter 12 / In Class Quiz (Session 13)
14 / Multiple Linear Regression II: Collinearity & Residual Plots / HOG, Chapter 12
15 / Multiple Linear Regression III: Leverage, Influence, and Residuals / HOG, Chapter 12
16 / Multiple Regression IV: Binary X Variables, Xs with several categories / HOG, Chapter 12
17 / Multiple Regression V: Model Selection Strategy / HOG, Chapter 12
18 / Review and Discussion of Project / Project Handout / Project Due September 12
The readings listed above are in addition to the annotated PowerPoint slides for the session.
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GEMBA Managerial Statistics Porter