MAN 3503 Managerial Risk Analysis and Decision Making
Required Texts
Fogler, H. S., & LeBlanc, S. E. (2014). Strategies for creative problem solving (3rd ed). ISBN: 978-0-13-309166-3
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L. & Raiffa, H. (1999). Smart choices: A practical guide to making better decisions. ISBN: 9781633691049
Note: this book may not be available in the bookstore but can be found online at any number of book vendors. An older electronic version can be found for free through an online search, although it’s your responsibility to make sure the chapters align with assigned readings.
APA Resources
Note: You are expected to review and perfect APA format.
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Course Description
This course covers a framework for making decisions, as well as understanding how these decisions can be used to manage risk. Managers need to understand how they personally value risk in order to recognize the potential impact their behavior may have on organizations and stakeholders. This course will study approaches that students may develop and apply decision making and risk analysis to solve problems in different operating environments.
Course Work
The course is broken down into 8 weekly segments. Basic knowledge assimilation occurs through reading the two prescribed texts and a number of important articles. Knowledge is tested by quizzes designed to verify reading comprehension. A number of questions will relate directly to the specific reading assignments.
This course uses weekly discussion sessions to enrich the course and promote interaction as a vital skill in improved idea exchange, analysis, and decision making - and working with others. Development of ideas, integration of models, use of tools, and reasoned logic will be exercised in both individual and group assignments.
All written items have to follow a formal writing style. Many written assignments are a case study, needing a "case approach" that focuses on diagnostics and providing the only correct solution for a scenario. Other written assignments and discussions that rely on research or input from other sources will require formal citations and references. Case studies are clearly identified. All of previous will become a key part of grading.
Summarizing material or agreeing with others while not adding more material or critical thinking will not attract a passing grade for discussions or assignments. Debate, integrated ideas, analysis, application, evaluation, and synthesis will be rewarded.
Course Objectives
- The student will understand risk management and decision theory models.
- The student will explore behavioral and economical implications of decision theory models.
- The student will evaluate risk analysis and assessment tools.
- The student will compare different approaches used by businesses to manage risks and make better decisions.
- The student will examine factors that influence decisions and risks in today’s global organizations.
- The student will develop model(s) that integrate and apply the concepts learned.
Course Schedule
See course calendar for specific due dates. All assignments are due by 11:59 PM on the due date.
Topic & Activities / Points / Deadline / Content / PreparationMODULE 1: Problems, Risks and Decisions: An Introduction
Video Introduction 1a / 5 / Tuesday / Introduce yourself & expectations
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 1: Initial post or Class / 5 / Thursday / Initial input, postings & research
Discussion 1: Final posting or Class / 5 / Sunday / Final input, postings & research
Quiz 1 - Strategy Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Strategy Chap. 1, 2 , 3,
Quiz 2 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 1
Individual Assignment Week 1 / 20 / Sunday / Summarize understanding
MODULE 2:Elements of Decision Making
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 2: Initial post or Class / 5 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 10, 11, 2, 3
Discussion 2: Final posting or Class / 5 / Sunday / Initial input, postings & research
Quiz 3 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 10, 11, 2, 3
Quiz 4 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 2,3 +
Individual Assignment Week 2 / 30 / Sunday / Problem definitions & objectives
MODULE 3: Elements of Risk Analysis & Management
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 3: Initial post or Class / 10 / Thursday / Risk research, risk assessment, Initial input, postings & research
Discussion 3: Final posting or Class / 10 / Sunday / Final postings, peer replies & research
Quiz 5 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 7, 8 +
Quiz 6 -IRM / 10 / Thursday / Read the assigned articles +
Individual Assignment Week 3 / 30 / Sunday / Risk Tolerance and Exposure
MODULE 4: Applied Analysis I: Defining & Prioritizing Problem and Objectives
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 4: Initial post or Class / 10 / Thursday / Read the Strategy Chapters & articles, Initial input & research
Discussion 4: Final posting or Class / 5 / Sunday / Responses to peers
Quiz 7 - Strategy Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Strategy Chap. 4, 5 +
Individual Assignment Week 4 / 20 / Sunday / 3 decision tools & cognitive mapping
Team Assignment 1 - Team Charter (for everyone) / 15 / Sunday / Team Objectives, Sources, Roles
MODULE 5: Applied Analysis II: Defining & Evaluating Alternatives
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 5: Initial post or Class / 10 / Thursday / Research, PPT, Strategy 5&6, Video
Discussion 5: Final posting or Class / 15 / Sunday / Initial input, postings & research
Quiz 8 - Strategy Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Strategy Chap. 6, 7 +
Quiz 9 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 6 +
Individual Assignment Week 5 / 30 / Sunday / TRIZ paper with full APA
Use TRIZ tool & watch video
Reflection Video / 5 / Sunday / Learning to date
MODULE 6: Applied Analysis III: Selecting Alternatives
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 6: Initial post or Class / 10 / Thursday / KT Analysis
Discussion 6: Final posting or Class / 15 / Sunday / Initial input, postings & research
Quiz 10 - Strategy Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Strategy Chap.9 & 10
Quiz 11 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 4,5,7 +
Individual Assignment Week 6 / 10 / Sunday / Your most interesting decision tool
Team Assignment 2a (due next week) / 10 / Wednesday / Individual Work
Team Assignment 2b (due next week) / 15 / Friday / Peer Review 1: The Team & Yourself
MODULE 7: Implementing, Evaluation and Case Analysis I
Review material prior to class / discussions / Monday / Read text, review files & video
Discussion 7: Initial post or Class / 13 / Thursday / Strategy 8 & 9 and Smart 9
Discussion 7: Final posting or Class / 7 / Sunday / Initial input, postings & research
Quiz 12 - Strategy Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Strategy Chap. 9, 10 +
Quiz 13 - Smart Book / 10 / Thursday / Read Smart Chap. 9 +
Team Assignment 2a - Individual work / 10 / Wednesday / Individual Input to the Team
Team Assignment 2b - Individual Peer review 1 / 15 / Friday / Peer Review: The Team & Yourself
MODULE 8: Case Analysis II
Team Assignment: Team Leader submits / 60 / Tuesday / Final Team Project
Team Assignment - Individual Peer review 2 (form 3b) / Required - part of 60 pts for project / Tuesday / Peer Review: The Team & Yourself
SPC Information & Policies
Computer Requirements
Students should have regular access to a computer that is connected to the Internet. It is strongly recommended that students have a broadband (high-speed) internet connection such as DSL or a cable modem. When taking online quizzes and exams (or viewing online video), students should have an Internet connection that is stable and will not drop their connection.
Students without a stable high-speed internet connection should consider making arrangements to take online quizzes and exams at one of the St. Petersburg College libraries (or a similar facility) where a stable high-speed internet connection is available. Firefox or Chrome are the preferred browsers to use to access course materials. I have the best success with Chrome.
Because of the use of teams in many classes, a formal standard has been devised. This standard applies to all classes. Students are required to submit assignments and share team documents in Microsoft Office formats (Word, Excel and other Microsoft formats if specified).
The College of Business provides full function student licenses of Microsoft software, other than the basic Office product.
It is required that students must have access to a web camera and headset microphone to support video submissions. Students should arrange for the necessary equipment if they intend to earn full credit for those submissions or plan to attend the blended class in-person. Students may have other options (see instructor, i.e. Skype) or be able to schedule a physical presentation at another time period (i.e. office hours) as an alternative.
Students are responsible for making sure their computers are compatible to the system requirements. Internet browser use and settings, security and virus protection software settings, necessary plug-ins and software requirements, and other computer requirements today require students to assure the computer they are using for their studies will appropriately support these systems and course needs to be successful. Students should contact SPC Technical Support if they need further assistance to get anything in this course to run appropriately on their computer.
SPC Technical Support Desk Call Center
A standard file format applies to submissions in the College of Business to support file compatibility, sharing, and commenting needs. Students are required to submit all assignments in Microsoft Office formats (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and other Microsoft formats). Other formats may have compatibility issues or instructor feedback in comments may not be viewable by students. Students can access MySPC (under Resources tab) to get MS Office (FREE, see
Late Work Policy
All assignments and activities must be completed by the due date. Late work will not be accepted due to computer problems, lack of a textbook, travel, sickness, or anything short of a documented, serious extenuating circumstance, such as your being in a coma in the hospital for an extended period of time. This policy is in place to assure that all students are treated equitably.
Grading Policy
Assignments and Grading Policy 90% - 100% A 80% B 70% C 60% D 59% and below F
Total Points Possible / 500 / 125 / Discussion / ClassA if total points > / 450 / 130 / Quizzes
B if total points > / 400 / 145 / Individual Assignments
C if total points > / 350 / 100 / Team Assignments
D if total points > / 300 / 500 / TOTAL
Time Commitment
This is a 3-credit course conducted over 8 weeks. In order to meet accreditation standards, on average, students should expect to spend between 12 to 15 hours per week on course activities and assignments. Spending less time would be insufficient for success in this course. Some important information is provided in the Assignment and Due Dates section.
Attendance Policy
Attendance and participation and team participation is required. Our attendance policy is that you need to turn in something each week for an online class and attend class and turn in something for a blended class. To be successful, you will need to complete all work and login at least every 3 days. Dropping and Adding Students are responsible for understanding the policies and procedures about add/drop, etc. See
Academic Integrity
University Policies Academic integrity Your commitment as a student to learning is evidenced by your enrollment. Please familiarize yourself with the policy Instances of academic dishonesty will not be tolerated. Cheating on exams or plagiarism (presenting the work of another as your own, or the use of another person’s ideas without giving proper credit) will result in a failing grade and sanctions by the University.
Disability Policy
Campus Policy in Compliance with the American Disabilities Act If you need course adaptations or accommodations because of a disability, please see me. Please register using the SPC ADA Policies.
Miscellaneous
Student Resources Computer labs for student use are available. Tech help is available
Team Policy
Teams form an important part of this course. To allow equity and provide consequences of not delivering quality to the team, there are consequences for lack of participation, collaboration, and consequences for late work, a number of important processes have to be followed.
●To enable success, this course uses an enhanced Team Charter at the start of the team process – complete all fields in collaboration with your team using the Team Discussion forum.
●Your activity or reports of other activities form an important input to grading. Enter reports of activities in other places or other mediums within three days of an event. Focus on content that proves the scope of the activity.
●Teams should meet well ahead of deadlines to interact and ensure that there is a cohesive final product
●Peer reviews are confidential and mandatory. The instructor may ignore the highest and lowest reviews in the interest of equity
●Peer reviews will have a significant influence on scores awarded to individual team members
●The team and may vote a member off the team subject to consultation with the instructor. Decisions to withhold the paper have to be declared on the confidential peer-reviewed form, including reasons for this action
●The instructor will not normally authorize requests for team membership changes. There must be significant cause by other team members to justify any of the unlikely exceptions.
●There is no option to create additional teams.
ADDITIONAL NOTES:
The Syllabus Addendum college-wide policies will be strictly enforced in this course. A link is provided in this course syllabus introduction, as well as it can be directly accessed at: Further expectations are defined in the addendum regarding academic honesty, student conduct, emergency preparedness, disability resources, and other information.
Tutoring assistance with supplemental instruction, out-of-class support, learning and study skills, or other tutoring will be available online and on-site at the Learning Support Centers (see These resources may be helpful with writing (including APA format), math, and computer skills needed for this course. Further academic support information is available at: Additionally there are several computer labs for use at:
Academic Advising for course sequencing, selection, planning, registration, and other degree requirements is available at:
SPC Libraries and Services information is available at:
Academic calendar is available at:
Career Services (which includes internship and employment resources) can be found at:
Student Support Resources are further available at:
St. Petersburg main college website for further information is:
Blended students that need an escort to their car or other students that need to report an issue on any campus, please call Campus Security at 727-791-2560 immediately.