Double Difference Regressions

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification
Constant / 0.0505*** / 0.0507***
Disaster × After / 0.0017** / 0.0027***
Disaster / -0.0290*** / -0.1187***
After / -0.0070*** / -0.0072***
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Mean [SD] Intensity / 0.1622 [0.4590] / 0.2893 [0.5355]
Observations / 16,724,006 / 16,724,006

Main Regressions (with complete set of coefficients for Table 3)

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / A / B / C / D
Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0087*** / 0.0071*** / 0.0031** / 0.0027**
Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0020 / 0.0006 / 0.0032** / 0.0029**
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0019 / -0.0030 / 0.0017 / 0.0015
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0002 / -0.0004 / 0.0011 / 0.0009
Constant / 0.0299*** / -0.7383*** / 0.0337*** / -0.4084***
Disaster × After / -0.0031 / -0.0092 / 0.0002 / 0.0008
Disaster × 15-25 Age / -0.0393*** / -0.0382*** / -0.0012 / -0.0010
Disaster × 26-35 Age / -0.0300*** / -0.0285*** / -0.0046*** / -0.0044***
Disaster × 36-45 Age / -0.0128*** / -0.0112*** / -0.0022*** / -0.0021**
Disaster × 46-55 Age / -0.0048 / -0.0039** / -0.0010 / -0.0009
After × 15-25 Age / -0.0078*** / -0.0070*** / -0.0069*** / -0.0064***
After × 26-35 Age / -0.0025 / -0.0016 / -0.0028** / -0.0021*
After × 36-45 Age / -0.0005 / 0.0000 / -0.0008 / -0.0003
After × 46-55 Age / -0.0009 / 0.0013 / -0.0009 / -0.0013
Disaster / -0.0029 / -0.0101** / 0.0022 / 0.0088
After / -0.0023*** / -0.0091*** / -0.0030*** / -0.0086***
15-25 Age / 0.0029*** / 0.0221*** / 0.0221*** / 0.0158***
26-35 Age / 0.0307*** / 0.0241*** / 0.0267*** / 0.0203***
36-45 Age / 0.0150*** / 0.0100*** / 0.0131*** / 0.0084***
46-55 Age / 0.0046*** / 0.0022*** / 0.0038*** / 0.0014
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Individual and Historical Climate Controls / No / Yes / No / Yes
Mean [SD] Intensity / 0.1622 [0.4590] / 0.2893 [0.5355]
Observations / 16,724,006 / 16,724,006

Triple Difference Regression Estimates by Gender and Education Sub-populations (Figure 2)

Droughts / Hurricanes / Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / E / 90% CI / F / 90% CI
Male / Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0075** / 0.0025 / 0.0126 / 0.0026* / 0.0003 / 0.0049 / Mean Migration Change
(N=7,999,063) / Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0014 / -0.0033 / 0.0062 / 0.0026* / 0.0004 / 0.0048 / -0.0055 / -0.0093
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0016 / -0.0069 / 0.0037 / 0.0026** / 0.0005 / 0.0047 / Mean Intensity
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / 0.0002 / -0.0053 / 0.0057 / 0.0014 / -0.0010 / 0.0038 / 0.1600 / 0.2944
Female / Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0067** / 0.0023 / 0.0111 / 0.0029* / 0.0004 / 0.0053 / Mean Migration Change
(N=8,724,943) / Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / -0.0005 / -0.0045 / 0.0035 / 0.0033** / 0.0010 / 0.0056 / -0.0068 / -0.0115
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0048* / -0.0095 / -0.0002 / 0.0006 / -0.0017 / 0.0028 / Mean Intensity
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0016 / -0.0062 / 0.0030 / 0.0004 / -0.0021 / 0.0030 / 0.1642 / 0.2846
Primary / Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0082** / 0.0017 / 0.0146 / 0.0013 / -0.0014 / 0.0039 / Mean Migration Change
Education / Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / -0.0023 / -0.0086 / 0.0040 / 0.0015 / -0.0010 / 0.0040 / -0.0099 / -0.0155
(N=11,778,606) / Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0082* / -0.0153 / -0.0010 / 0.0004 / -0.0021 / 0.0030 / Mean Intensity
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0081* / -0.0158 / -0.0003 / 0.0004 / -0.0025 / 0.0034 / 0.1259 / 0.2822
Less than primary / Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0077*** / 0.0039 / 0.0115 / 0.0037*** / 0.0015 / 0.0058 / Mean Migration Change
Education / Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0066*** / 0.0032 / 0.0099 / 0.0035*** / 0.0014 / 0.0056 / -0.0068 / -0.0111
(N=4,945,400) / Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / 0.0013 / -0.0021 / 0.0047 / 0.0015 / -0.0004 / 0.0034 / Mean Intensity
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / 0.0023 / -0.0012 / 0.0058 / 0.0006 / -0.0013 / 0.0026 / 0.2485 / 0.3060
Whole Sample / Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0071*** / 0.0027 / 0.0115 / 0.0027** / 0.0006 / 0.0049 / Mean Migration Change
(N=16,724,006) / Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0006 / -0.0034 / 0.0045 / 0.0029** / 0.0010 / 0.0049 / -0.0061 / -0.0104
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0030 / -0.0075 / 0.0015 / 0.0015 / -0.0004 / 0.0034 / Mean Intensity
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0004 / -0.0050 / 0.0041 / 0.0009 / -0.0013 / 0.0031 / 0.1622 / 0.2893

Notes: Variables omitted from the table are two-way interactions (with Disaster, Age and After), Disaster, 15-25 Age dummy, 26-35 Age dummy, 36-45 Age dummy, 46-55 Age dummy, male dummy, completed schooling in years, and historical climate variables.

Identification of Hurricanes

Country / Year / Start Date / End Date / Name / Category
Costa Rica / None
Dominican Republic / 2007 / 10.04 / 10.09 / Dean / 5
El Salvador / 2000 / 10.01 / 10.01 / Keith / 4
Haiti / 2001 / 10.3 / 11.05 / Michelle / 4
2002 / 9.3 / 9.3 / Lili / 4
Jamaica / None
Mexico / 2005 / 7.18 / 7.18 / Emily / 5
2005 / 10.19 / 10.24 / Wilma / 5
2006 / 9.02 / 9.04 / John / 4
2007 / 8.21 / 8.24 / Dean / 5
2009 / 9.02 / 9.03 / Jimena / 4
Nicaragua / 1998 / 10.25 / 11.08 / Mitch / 5
2000 / 9.29 / 10.03 / Keith / 4
2001 / 11.01 / 11.04 / Michelle / 4
Panama / None

Source: National Hurricane Center

Kernel Density Plot of Migration on Hurricane Intensity

Identification of Droughts

Country / Year / Start Date
Costa Rica / None
Dominican Republic / None
El Salvador / 2001 / 2001.5
Haiti / 2003 / 2003.2
Jamaica / 2000 / 2000.3
Mexico / None
Nicaragua / 2000 / 2000.7
2001 / 2001.8
Panama / None

Source: EM-DAT

Kernel Density Plot of Migration on Drought Intensity

Main Regressions (with complete set of coefficients), Table 3 assuming 5-year window of exposure

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / A / B / C / D
Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0113*** / 0.0096*** / 0.0042** / 0.0039**
Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0007 / -0.0009 / 0.0048*** / 0.0045**
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0021 / -0.0033 / 0.0025* / 0.0024
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0001 / -0.0004 / 0.0015 / 0.0013
Constant / 0.0320*** / -0.6578*** / 0.0339*** / -0.3779***
Disaster × After / -0.0042** / -0.0092 / 0.0014 / 0.0031**
Disaster × 15-25 Age / -0.0265*** / -0.0252*** / -0.0005 / -0.0003
Disaster × 26-35 Age / -0.0215*** / -0.0197*** / -0.0050*** / -0.0048***
Disaster × 36-45 Age / -0.0094*** / -0.0075*** / -0.0026** / -0.0026**
Disaster × 46-55 Age / -0.0030 / -0.0019 / -0.0008 / -0.0007
After × 15-25 Age / -0.0076*** / -0.0068*** / -0.0074*** / -0.0068***
After × 26-35 Age / -0.0020* / -0.0011 / -0.0034** / -0.0027*
After × 36-45 Age / -0.0003 / 0.0003 / -0.0011 / -0.0006
After × 46-55 Age / -0.0008 / -0.0012 / -0.0011 / -0.0014
Disaster / -0.0135 / -0.0201*** / 0.5751*** / 0.5095***
After / -0.0025*** / -0.0092*** / -0.0033*** / -0.0091***
15-25 Age / 0.0248*** / 0.0184*** / 0.0220*** / 0.0157***
26-35 Age / 0.0281*** / 0.0216*** / 0.0271*** / 0.0208***
36-45 Age / 0.0138*** / 0.0088*** / 0.0134*** / 0.0087***
46-55 Age / 0.0040*** / 0.0016** / 0.0038*** / 0.0015
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Individual and Historical Climate Controls / No / Yes / No / Yes
Mean [SD] Intensity / 0.1101 [0.3860] / 0.2613 [0.5056]
Observations / 16,724,006 / 16,724,006

Main Regressions, Table 3 assuming 6-year window of exposure

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / A / B / C / D
Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0087*** / 0.0071*** / 0.0042** / 0.0039**
Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0020 / 0.0006 / 0.0048*** / 0.0045***
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0019 / -0.0030 / 0.0025* / 0.0024
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0002 / -0.0004 / 0.0015 / 0.0013
Constant / 0.0299*** / -0.7383*** / 0.0339*** / -0.3779***
Disaster × After / -0.0031 / -0.0092 / 0.0014 / 0.0031**
Disaster × 15-25 Age / -0.0393*** / -0.0382*** / -0.0005 / -0.0003
Disaster × 26-35 Age / -0.0300*** / -0.0285*** / -0.0050*** / -0.0048***
Disaster × 36-45 Age / -0.0128*** / -0.0112*** / -0.0026** / -0.0026**
Disaster × 46-55 Age / -0.0048 / -0.0039** / -0.0008 / -0.0007
After × 15-25 Age / -0.0078*** / -0.0070*** / -0.0074*** / -0.0068***
After × 26-35 Age / -0.0025 / -0.0016 / -0.0034** / -0.0027*
After × 36-45 Age / -0.0005 / 0.0000 / -0.0011 / -0.0006
After × 46-55 Age / -0.0009 / 0.0013 / -0.0011 / -0.0014
Disaster / -0.0029 / -0.0101** / 0.5751*** / 0.5095***
After / -0.0023*** / -0.0091*** / -0.0033*** / -0.0091***
15-25 Age / 0.0029*** / 0.0221*** / 0.0220*** / 0.0157***
26-35 Age / 0.0307*** / 0.0241*** / 0.0271*** / 0.0208***
36-45 Age / 0.0150*** / 0.0100*** / 0.0134*** / 0.0087***
46-55 Age / 0.0046*** / 0.0022*** / 0.0038*** / 0.0015
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes / Yes / Yes
Individual and Historical Climate Controls / No / Yes / No / Yes
Mean [SD] Intensity / 0.1622 [0.4590] / 0.2613 [0.5056]
Observations / 16,724,006 / 16,724,006

Main Regressions (Table 3, Allowing for Nonlinear Effects)

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / B / D
1-2 SD Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0077* / 0.0094***
1-2 SD Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0030 / 0.0063*
1-2 SD Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0019 / 0.0032
1-2 SD Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0007 / 0.0047
2 SD Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0470*** / 0.0089***
2 SD Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / -0.0145 / 0.0078***
2 SD Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0298** / 0.0023
2 SD Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0023 / 0.0012
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Individual and Historical Climate Controls / Yes / Yes
Observations / 16,724,006 / 16,724,006

Main Regressions (Table 3, 10% of Original Sample Size)

Droughts / Hurricanes
Specification / B / D
Disaster × 15-25 Age × After / 0.0092*** / 0.0030*
Disaster × 26-35 Age × After / 0.0023 / 0.0033*
Disaster × 36-45 Age × After / -0.0012 / 0.0013
Disaster × 46-55 Age × After / -0.0001 / 0.0010
Origin Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Destination Fixed Effects / Yes / Yes
Individual and Historical Climate Controls / Yes / Yes

Notes: Parameter and standard error estimates based on bootstrapping procedure with 100 replications.