Study Guide

The Curse of Oil

Klare, Energy Conflict in the Caspian Sea

  1. Current U.S. oil imports

  1. Safe and secure supplies?
  1. The Oil Curse!
  1. Oil, colonialism and war
  1. Oil transforms Saudi Arabia
  1. Mexico nationalizes its oil industry
  1. Oil, British imperialism and Middle East nationalism
  1. Egypt nationalizes the Suez Canal
  1. The creation of OPEC
  1. The curse of Oil in Venezuela (and Colombia)
  1. Algeria’s oil independence
  1. Lybia demands more oil money
  1. Iraq nationalizes its oil industry
  1. The 1973 oil crisis
  1. Instability in Iran and Iraq
  2. Petrodollars
  1. Iraq invades Kuwait
  1. The curse of petrodollars
  1. Energy Conflict in the Caspian Sea --- The new oil “El Dorado”

5.  Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan and the “stans”: -- “The world’s second or third largest reserves of petroleum, along with vast supplies of natural gas”

6.  BTC Pipeline and U.S. policy

7.  The stage is set for a long-term power struggle between Russia and the U.S. --- “[T]he emerging U.S. – Russian rivalry and the efforts of locals states to manipulate this rivalry to their advantage --- is enough to generate considerable instability in the region”

  1. “Moscow’s major objective in this contest is to ensure that a significant portion of the Caspian’s energy output travels through the existing Russian pipeline system to the Black Sea and Europe”
  1. “Washington has two key objectives: first, to develop Caspian basin energy as an alternative to Persian Gulf supplies; second, to ensure that the Caspian oil and gas travels to markets in the West without passing through Russia or Iran”
  1. Direct military conflict between the U.S. and Russia in the Caspian area is unlikely. But it is possible to envision the periodic outbreak of “proxy wars” in the region as local power allied to either side receives considerable military aid and advice from their respective patrons

8.  “[A] number of external powers --- including the United States, Russia, Turkey and China --- seek to determine future pipeline routes in accordance with their perceived strategic interests”

9.  Internal friction in the Caspian states, separatist conflicts and widespread socio-economic disorder. Growing gap between rich and poor

10.  The Contested Caspian: lake or sea?

11.  Instability on the pipeline trail --- the central dilemma of transportation --- “ No matter which directions the pipelines may follow --- north, south east or west --- they must cross through one or more areas of instability.”

  1. The Iran route and U.S. policy
  1. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan through old Soviet pipeline to port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea --- ethnic conflict between Azeris and Armenians
  1. Baku to Novorossiysk passes through Chechnya
  1. Georgia route to the Black Sea
  1. BTC route --- This is the preferred U.S. route but the BTC passes through an area that has experienced bitter fighting between the Turkish army and Kurdish insurgents

  1. Turkmenistan to Pakistan route

  1. Turkmenistan to China pipeline --- this pipeline will travel through China’s remote Xinjiang province, the only part of China (other than Tibet) in which non-Chinese peoples form the majority. Xinjiang has long been torn by fighting government troop and Uighur who seek to establish and independent “East Turkestan”

12.  Other sources, other conflicts

  1. West Africa
  1. Colombia
  1. Venezuela
  1. Persian Gulf
  1. Saudi Arabia

13.  Alternatives?