Key Take-Aways / Follow-up from the Board of Governors

Commission on Florida Higher Education Access and Degree Attainment Meeting, September 26, 2012

The Access and Attainment Commission met in Tampa at the offices of Kathleen Shanahan. All Commission members were present: Dean Colson (by telephone), Marshall Criser, Tom Kuntz, Susan Pareigis, Ava Parker, Rep. William Proctor. Frank Brogan, Chancellor of the Board of Governors, was also present.

Guest: Jennifer Goin, Florida Gulf Coast University.

Staff: Steven Birnholz (Florida Council of 100); Jan Ignash, Jason Jones, and R.E. LeMon (Board of Governors)

Brief Overview

The Commission members discussed the information in the main Power Point and supplemental materials addressing the question “How many bachelor’s degrees does Florida need by 2025?” (Materials can be found at

Key Take-Aways

The Board’s 2025 goal of producing 90,000 bachelor’s degrees is only approximately 7,000 more than the system will produce, if it stays on its current track. The 90,000 number represents the historical trend line and underlying assumptions include the same in-state/out-of-state mix of students and thatthe current SUS time to degree (4.3 years) will remain constant. Also, projections for Florida College System baccalaureateswere not included in the 90,000 degree number.

Much of the Commission’s discussion centered around the “demand” for graduates and an examination of the current “supply” of graduates.

Regarding “demand,” key observations include the following:

  1. Several national/”big ten state” comparisonssuggest that Florida is under-producing baccalaureates:
  2. % of population aged 25-34 with a bachelor’s degree or higher
  3. bachelor degrees awarded per 1,000 18-24 year olds
  4. per capita Gross Domestic Product
  5. per capita net earnings
  6. knowledge jobs in 2010 New Economy Index
  7. % of 18-24 year olds enrolled in college
  1. However, from the perspective of available jobs in Florida requiring baccalaureates, the data are less clear. One reason for this lack of clarity is the disparity between different methodologies for projecting jobs that will require baccalaureates:
  2. Florida’s Department of Education/Department of Economic Opportunity methodology-- indicates that about 14% of Florida jobs require a baccalaureate or higher (45,000 job openings in 2020).
  3. Bureau of Labor Statistics methodology--indicates that about 18% of Florida jobs require a baccalaureate or higher (58,000 job openings in 2020).
  4. American Community Survey (ACS) methodology (U.S. Census Bureau)—indicates that about 26% of Florida jobs require a baccalaureate or higher (84,000 job openings in 2020).

Regarding the pipeline of potential students (or “supply”), the following observations were made:

  1. Florida’s “Race to the Top” goals include doubling, over ten years (2009-2019), the % of high school graduates who go on to earn at least a year’s worth of college credit.
  2. Additional efforts to target associate degree completers to continue to the baccalaureate (whether in the SUS or the FCS) is a key strategy.
  3. Once the number of additional baccalaureates is settled on, SUS enrollment plans need to be analyzed to determine whether goals, adjusted or not, can be met.
  4. If it is determined that Florida needs to significantly increase the number of baccalaureate degree holders, it cannot be accomplished without an infusion of resources that some predict is unlikely to materialize.

Follow-up

The Commission members made the following recommendations to staff for modifying the information presented at this meeting and for developing materials for future meetings:

1)Use the Bureau of Labor Statistics method for demand projections.

2)Factor in dual enrollment.

3)Ask Florida College System for the recently completed FCS strategic planning projections for the A.A. degree.

4)Ask Florida College System for its listing, by institution, of proposed baccalaureate programs, per HB 7135.

5)Slide #16 contains projections for A.A. degree graduates, but not for A.S. degree completers or those who transfer without an associate’s degree. Determine if there is a way to quantify those groups of students.

6)Per Slide #17, work with ICUF and CIE to develop a common format or template for data collection—an agreed upon set of state metrics. (Determine whether HECC-agreed to metrics satisfy this need.)

Future Meetings

The topic for the November meeting has now been split into two meetings, to allow more time to digest the data:

  1. The next meeting will be late November/early December and will focus on workforce demand projections by occupation (not industry).
  2. Guiding Questions:
  3. What are the top growing occupations in Florida?
  4. By annual openings
  5. By growth rate
  6. By regions of Florida
  7. By educational level (associate’s, bachelor’s graduate)
  8. What are the top growing occupations nationally?
  9. By annual openings
  10. By growth rate
  11. By educational level, if appropriate (associate’s, bachelor’s, graduate)
  12. What are the top growing occupations in the Big 10 most populous states?
  13. What occupational areas are projected to maintain current growth levels or decline?
  1. The third meetingin February/March will marry the workforce demand projections for specific occupations with program array/offerings by level (a.k.a. “gap analysis,” along with over-saturation and maintenance areas identified).
  1. The fourth meeting (April/May) will address the question “Which sector(s) should grow?” The topic will include cost considerations. During the fifth meeting (June/July), the Commission will develop draft recommendations for the system, which will be vetted among the larger higher education community and its stakeholders. Recommendations will be finalized at the sixth meeting in late summer 2013.

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