International Parliamentary Conference on Peacebuilding: Tackling State Fragility

Opening Keynote: Pathways to Peace, Security and Democracy: The Role of Parliamentarians

Monday 1 February

Your Excellencies: It’s an honour to address the opening session of the International Parliamentary Conference on Peacebuilding. I’d like to begin by thanking the CPA UK branch for bringing us together for this session on tackling state fragility.

Our discussion here today is given added urgency by recent events around the world – whether a devastating earthquake in Haiti, the Afghanistan donors’ conference here in London last week, or the new threats of terrorism emanating from fragile and failing states around the Red Sea, such as Yemen and Somalia.

I’d like to begin by providing some context for this week’s discussions. I’llbegin by addressing the broad challenges of strengthening and rebuilding states emerging from disasters, instability, and conflict.

Then I’ll consider the interlocking challenges facing these societies and their international partners, namely restoring national and human security, building a responsive political framework, kick-starting the economy, ensuring a balance of reconciliation and accountability, promoting civil society, and getting the regional and international context right.

Let’s start by looking at some recent changes in the global environment.

First, the traditional dividing line between “hard” issues of national security, nuclear disarmament, power politics, and so on, and “soft” issues of human security, refugees, infant mortality, disease eradication, etc., has vanished forever.

Today, there are no "hard" and "soft" issues: crises no longer remain in their separate and distinct boxes, any more than they respect national borders.

Second, the stakes of game have risen dramatically, as global implications of state fragility and failure have become more profound.

Failure to consolidate peace and stability in Afghanistan, Colombia, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, and beyond no longer just impacts on people of those countries, but

OOpens door to terrorist training camps;

OPermits new routes for trafficking of persons, arms and drugs;

OSpawnsa flood of refugees across borders and even oceans;

ODisrupts international trade and investment;

OFacilitates pandemic disease; and

OEven brings piracy.

Finally, resources to address these concerns are just not as plentiful as the used to be.

Current peacekeeping missions have about 100,000 personnel under UN missions and almost as many under other regional organizations, and have largely tapped out the supply of troops and civilians.

The global economic crisis has essentially closed the assistance pantry for major reconstruction efforts for all but the most newsworthy countries.

This means that we have to do better at identifying state fragility and addressing its root causes.

Our research at Crisis Group has identified a number of questions that can guide us to factors of instability. I’d like to highlight seven of these.

OFirst, is there responsive governance, rule of law, and opportunities for broad political participation? Societies need safety valves to permit the peaceful redress of grievances.

OSecond, is the economic system accommodating rapid urbanization, population pressure and the so-called “youth bulge”? A quick route to conflict is when alienated urban young men don’t see opportunities in their societies and are susceptible to fanatics or zealots.

OThird, do institutions of civil society draw people together across religious, ethnic, class or political divisions? Such groups are often the first victims of “divide-and-rule” polarization that characterizes conflict situations.

ONext, is the country located in a stable region? Countries in bad neighborhoods risk spill-over from armed combatants, refugees and arms flows; those in good neighborhoods receive a powerful dampening effect on potential violence.

OFifth, has violence become normalized in the society? Aspects to consider here are the role of the military in political life, rates of rape and domestic violence, and the proliferation of small arms.

OSixth, is the society open, internally and internationally? Closed political systems, economies, and media are dangerous. Conflicts are like mushrooms: they grow best in darkness.

OFinally, has there been upheaval during the past 15 years? Contrary to the warning you get on an investment prospectus, past record is an indicator of future performance.

These factors give some clues as to where the international community’s efforts at peacebuilding and reconstruction should be placed. Again, in studying more than two dozen successful and failed efforts since World War II, we’ve found that the key challenges are remarkably similar.

Again, these include restoring state and human security, building a responsive political framework, kick-starting the economy, addressing transitional justice, promoting civil society, and to getting the regional context right. Let me address each of these challenges briefly.

On security front, international peacekeepers can provide a buffer, but credible local security forces – both defense forces and polices – must quickly take over to provide stabilityand rule of law to everyday life. Even with the flood of 25,000 foreign troops and police into Haiti, the key to stability will be getting Creole-speaking and street-smart Haitian National Police back on patrol.

Security sector reform is usually essential to ensure that forces are well-trained, disciplined, and adequately paid so that they do not exploit and abuse the populations they’re supposed to protect. There must be effective programs to disarm, demobilise, and reintegrate ex-combatants, including militias. Child soldiers have to put down their AK-47s and pick up schoolbooks.

In terms of restoring a legitimate political framework at the national and local levels, we must help build a culture of public service, accountability and transparency, along with an effective system to root out corruption and protect human rights.

Effective legislatures and judiciaries must counter-balance the power of the executive, which grows during conflict periods. The quick-fix of creating a unity government with all competing forces is rarely a viable long-term solution. Nor is the premature holding of elections an useful step. Further, decentralization and local empowerment must be balanced against need for strong central authority in fragile states.

Economic renewal doesn’t just mean rebuilding of roads, clinics, schools, power grids, and houses. In truth, long-term development means reviving agriculture, creating conditions needed to attract local and foreign investment, ensuring greater equality in income distribution, and creating jobs.

In societies facing massive youth unemployment, it is little surprise that renegade leaders like Foday Sankoh or Joseph Kony have lured disaffected young people with a siren song that offers quick if venal empowerment.

In conflict situations, societies must come to grips with past abuses and atrocities.

Nations and individuals need to balance accountability and national reconciliation, but too often,peace agreement provide blanket amnesties in which men with guns forgive other men with guns for crimes committed against women and children.

There is no one-size-fits-all approach to transitional justice: whether it is action by local courts, the International Criminal Court, a truth and reconciliation commission, traditional reconciliation systems, or ad hoc international tribunals in cases where local justice are inadequate, ensuring accountability is essential to rebuilding rule of law and eliminating a culture of impunity.

A fifth challenge, often ignored, is supporting civil society. Groups of academics, lawyers, teachers, unions, and women are the glue that holds society together.

In particular, women are too often seen only as victims of conflict, but they’re also a key to peace consolidation. Bringing women to peace table and post-conflict governance bodies improves the quality of agreements reached and reduces the likelihood of returning to war.

The single best investment to revitalize agriculture, restore health systems, and improve other social indicators after conflict is girls' education. It has been said: "Teach a boy and you educate one person; teach a girl and you educate a community."

The final challenge is getting regional context right. Comprehensive peace-building must recognize differing yet often synergistic roles to be played and interests to be pursued by neighboring countries, each with its special relationships and contacts with key actors. It is often useful to have formal structures: ad hoc "friends groups" or conflict resolution committees of such regional and sub-regional organizations can serve this purpose.

The current situation in Haiti presents a cautionary tale. Just as Haitians must come together in a new social compact that spans broad chasms of class, race, and ideology for the greater good, the international community must do the same.

Squabbles over whose planes get to land at the Port-au-Prince airport must be replaced by a common understanding of the size of the challenge ahead, and a willingness to co-ordinate efforts.

The U.S., Latin America, Europe and others must realise that it will take a global effort – guided by the vision of Haitians themselves – to address the complex political, security, humanitarian, economic and social problems ahead. Empowering the United Nations to continue providing leadership is a good first step.

As traumatised and shell-shocked as the UN is from its own tragic losses in Haiti, it must find the renewed strength to rise to the challenge of leading the post-disaster reconstruction and stabilization program.

Minister Fraser-Moleketi will speak in a moment on the role of parliamentarians in these processes. One key area I’d like to suggest is that parliamentarians are vital to building a domestic constituency for efforts to stabilize fragile societies and ensure successful rebuilding.

In this regard, I believe that we too frequently underestimate the ability of our fellow citizens to understand and support these efforts, and I’ll conclude with a final story.

In October 1993, I was serving as deputy White House press secretary at the time of the “Black Hawk Down” disaster in Somalia. In response to the deaths of 18 American servicemen in Mogadishu, there was a firestorm of calls from Washington politicians for the immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Somalia. While President Clinton resisted this call, he did on a six-month timetable for their removal.

The following March, when the troop withdrawal was complete, President Clinton traveled to Fort Hood, New York, from where the troops in Somaliahad come. In a private meeting with the families of servicemen, one woman stood up and asked in a very aggressive manner, “Mr. President, what explanation would you give to the parents of a soldier who died in Mogadishu?”

The President started to respond by citing America’s strategic interest in the Horn of Africa, when another woman got up and said, “Mr. President, I can answer that. You should say that those parents’ son died a hero, in the finest tradition of the U.S. military and the United States, helping save the lives of hundreds of thousands of Somalis who couldn’t save themselves.” When she finished, the whole room broke out in quiet applause.

Our fellow citizens get this agenda. They can connect the dots – frequently better than we can – between our strategic, security, and humanitarian interests. We underestimate their commitment and concern at our peril.

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