Irishjobs.Ie Jobs Report

IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report

Q4: 2014

Headlines:

• Total jobs advertised in Q4, 2014 are 2% up from the previous quarter Q3, 2014 and up7% when comparing year on year.
• Quarterly figures reveal large increases in jobs advertised in Banking (+80%), Engineering (+19%), Environmental Health and Safety (+73%), IT (+19%), Production Manufacturing and Materials (+17%), and Security, Trades and General Services (+26%). Hotel and Catering jobs are down (-49%),along with Education, Childcare and Training (-28%).
• Year on year, Accounting and Finance has improved markedly (+20%), while Legal (+13), Medical Professionals and Healthcare (+16%),and Transport and Warehousing (+22%) all make very solid gains.
• Year on year, Science, Pharmaceutical and Food is down (-9%), Publishing (-15%) and Education, Childcare, and Training (-26%).
• Both Production and Manufacturing and Services industries are growing steadily, and all export-related indicators are now positive.
• Our Jobs Market Sentiment indicator shows 50% believe that the job market will get better this year, with 14% believing it wouldn’t improve and 36% saying that maybe it would get better. Just one third are satisfied with current salary. 4 in 10 plan to ask for a small raise.

Total Jobs up 7% Year on Year

The news is positive yet again. The total number of corporate job advertisements on Jobs.ie and IrishJobs.ie are up 7% year on year in aggregate, and up 2% between Q3, 2014 and Q4, 2014. This report links up with other PMI and macroeconomic data showing employment and domestic demand in the economy is growing in real terms while unemployment is falling for the 23rd consecutive monthly measurement.

This growth is despite the risks of deflation across the Eurozone, outstanding arrears across the household sector, and the contraction in credit.

Figure 1. Total jobs advertised. Index quarter is Q2, 2009, Line, LHS. % Change, Annual and Quarterly, in the numbers of jobs advertised, Bars, RHS.

In terms of domestic demand, we can see how healthy the Irish economy looks relative to the Greek economy. The figure below shows levels of domestic demand in both countries indexed to the first quarter of 2008. The differing fortunes of both countries are obvious. This increase in domestic demand translates directly into jobs, and of course job advertisements, which the IrishJobs.ie Jobs Index Report measures.

Figure 2. Domestic demand, Ireland and Greece, 2008Q1=100. Data is from the IMF’s World Economic outlook. 2015 and 2016 are forecasts. 2014 is a partial estimate.

The Sectoral Picture

Table 1 shows the breakdown of jobs relative to the index quarter, Q2 2009, relative to the same quarter last year and relative to Q3, 2014.

Almost all jobs categories are ‘up’ relative to the index quarter, itself close to the bottom for the country economically, and in terms of labour demand in particular. The largest gain by far is in Production and Manufacturing,(+300), while Environmental, Health and Safety (+137%) and Construction, Architecture and Property (+205%) are also showing strong rebounds. The long-term decline of Education (-36%) and Publishing, Media and Creative Arts (-38%) has been mentioned in this report many times.

Year on year, Accounting and Finance has improved markedly (+20%), while Legal (+13), Medical Professional Science (+16%),and Transport and Warehousing (+22%) all make very solid gains.Year on year, Science, Pharmaceutical and Food is down (-9%), as are Publishing (-15%) and Education, Childcare and Training (-26%).

Quarterly figures reveal large increases in jobs advertised in Banking (+80%), Engineering (+19%), Environmental Health and Safety (+73%), IT (+19%), Production Manufacturing and Materials (+17%) and Security, Trades and General Services (+26%).

Table 1.% Changes by Sector. Negative changes are coloured red. Index is Q2, 2009.

Figure shows that Production and Manufacturing growth was the best since August, while the rate of increase in new orders was the strongest for three months, reflecting the large change in both domestic and foreign orders received by these companies. The slump in Hotel and Catering job advertisements of -49% is worrying given the strong upward trend it was previously showing.

Figure 3. Selected industries. Q2:2009=100

Looking at high-tech industries, we can see that Medical Professionals, and Healthcare sectors are expanding strongly, while there is a cyclical pattern emerging for Science, Pharmaceutical & Food sectors, as shown in Figure 4.

Finally, figure 5 brings out the resurgence of the construction sector in Ireland, showing increases in Construction, Architecture & Property; Engineering & Utilities; and Transport, Warehousing and Motor, over the length of the index.

Jobs Market Sentiment Analysis

This quarter 500 people were surveyed. These individuals were either employed, job seeking or training. IrishJobs.ie analysed the responses of three groups the employed, job seeking and people in college/training. Within these groups the employed were the most optimistic about the job market with 69% believing it would improve while one in two (50%) of the job seekers believed it would get better and 52% of those in college or training.

50% of respondents believe the job market will get better this year. 14% believing it wouldn’t improve and 36% saying that maybe it would get better.

However, just one third are satisfied with their current salary, and 4 in 10 plan to ask for a small raise. These findings match with other reports showing employers are willing to increase salaries. Almost 3 in 10 plan to ask for a large raise. Almost half of respondents would move job for more money.

Of those respondents who are employed only a third said they were happy with their current salary (31%) with 41% of respondents planning to ask for a small raise this year and 28% saying they intend to ask their boss for a large raise this year. Perhaps not surprisingly then almost half (49%) of respondents who are working say that they would move jobs for more money.

Of the people who are working 43% are confident they would find another job quickly but a quarter (25%) told IrishJobs.ie they would not be confident and just over a third 32% not sure.

A third (30%) said they thought they could find a new job in less than three months but the majority (40%) believed it would take them longer, between 3-6 months, to find a suitable role with a quarter 25% saying it would take over a year.

Conclusion

The labour market continues to improve in Ireland. Relative to Q2, 2009, everything is changed. There is confidence in the market again and this is reflected in the large increases we are seeing in aggregate and sectorally. The recovery is here. The key constraint is now credit growth. Figure 4 below is looking at the growth rate of credit advanced to Irish resident private sector enterprises excluding Financial Intermediation and Property Related Sector, we can clearly see Irish businesses are still being starved of credit, and until credit growth returns, it is hard to see how the government’s target of 60,000 SME jobs will be met in the allotted time frame.

Figure 4. Growth rate of credit advanced to Irish resident private sector enterprises excluding Financial Intermediation and Property Related Sectors. Source: Central Bank.

A note on the data

All corporate job advertisement data come from IrishJobs.ie and Jobs.ie databases.

Figure 5. High Tech, High Skill Sectors. Q2, 2009=100.

Figure 6. Construction-related industries. Q2, 2009=100.

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