Intra-Guild Interactions and Projected Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on North

Intra-guild interactions and projected impact of climate and land use changes on North American pochard ducks

Guillaume Péron and David N. Koons

Electronic Supplementary Material

Parameter values for the model used to project redhead and canvasback population size. Pond number and population sizes were standardized (1960-2009 average of zero and SD of one). Given are mean, standard deviation, and 95% credible intervals from the MCMC analysis in Péron and Koons (2012).

Parameter / Description / mean / SD / 2.50% / 97.50%
/ Logit scale survival in first year female redhead / 0.291 / 0.148 / 0.023 / 0.619
/ Logit scale survival in after first year female redhead / 0.634 / 0.049 / 0.536 / 0.723
/ Logit scale survival in first year male redhead / 0.367 / 0.14 / 0.08 / 0.625
/ Logit scale survival in after first year male redhead / 0.894 / 0.053 / 0.792 / 0.989
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in first year female redhead / -0.141 / 0.176 / -0.453 / 0.242
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in after first year female redhead / 0.037 / 0.07 / -0.108 / 0.174
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in first year male redhead / 0.105 / 0.196 / -0.282 / 0.446
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in after first year male redhead / 0.148 / 0.09 / -0.065 / 0.307
/ Logit scale survival in after first year female canvasback / 1.374 / 0.23 / 0.97 / 1.818
/ Logit scale survival in first year female canvasback / 0.655 / 0.064 / 0.526 / 0.778
/ Logit scale survival in first year male canvasback / 0.448 / 0.209 / 0.051 / 0.9
/ Logit scale survival in after first year male canvasback / 1.053 / 0.087 / 0.883 / 1.23
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in first year female canvasback / -0.126 / 0.159 / -0.378 / 0.236
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in after first year female canvasback / -0.222 / 0.087 / -0.371 / -0.028
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in first year male canvasback / -0.016 / 0.243 / -0.404 / 0.537
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in after first year male canvasback / -0.351 / 0.087 / -0.532 / -0.196
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in first year female redhead / -0.105 / 0.166 / -0.403 / 0.226
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in after first year female redhead / -0.049 / 0.067 / -0.176 / 0.085
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in first year male redhead / -0.081 / 0.19 / -0.393 / 0.3
/ Logit scale effect of canvasback population size on survival in after first year male redhead / -0.117 / 0.101 / -0.278 / 0.101
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in first year female canvasback / 0.038 / 0.232 / -0.395 / 0.465
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in after first year female canvasback / 0.187 / 0.085 / 0.015 / 0.355
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in first year male canvasback / 0.067 / 0.284 / -0.504 / 0.578
/ Logit scale effect of redhead population size on survival in after first year male canvasback / 0.197 / 0.105 / 0.022 / 0.402
/ Log scale intercept for redhead fecundity / 0.358 / 0.114 / 0.114 / 0.549
/ Effect of redhead density on redhead fecundity / -0.018 / 0.06 / -0.133 / 0.087
/ Effect of canvasback density on redhead fecundity / 0.161 / 0.069 / 0.024 / 0.286
/ Interaction of pond number and redhead density / -0.165 / 0.079 / -0.32 / -0.028
/ Interaction of pond number and canvasback density / -0.132 / 0.079 / -0.264 / 0.01
/ Effect of pond number on redhead fecundity / 0.478 / 0.088 / 0.322 / 0.692
/ Log scale intercept for canvasback fecundity / -0.068 / 0.104 / -0.229 / 0.155
/ Effect of canvasback density on canvasback fecundity / 0.114 / 0.057 / 0.004 / 0.226
/ Effect of redhead density on canvasback fecundity / -0.253 / 0.138 / -0.477 / -0.002
/ Interaction of pond number and canvasback density / -0.148 / 0.074 / -0.289 / -0.014
/ Interaction of pond number and redhead density / -0.068 / 0.066 / -0.18 / 0.053
/ Effect of pond number on canvasback fecundity / 0.415 / 0.082 / 0.253 / 0.576
/ Redhead first year breeding probability / 0.237 / 0.102 / 0.106 / 0.47
/ Canvasback first year breeding probability / 0.605 / 0.186 / 0.28 / 0.958
/ Logit scale standard deviation of the random effect on redhead survival / 0.191 / 0.056 / 0.096 / 0.318
/ Logit scale standard deviation of the random effect on redhead fecundity / 0.415 / 0.048 / 0.335 / 0.52
/ Log scale standard deviation of the random effect on canvasback survival / 0.442 / 0.086 / 0.293 / 0.615
/ Log scale standard deviation of the random effect on canvasback fecundity / 0.356 / 0.048 / 0.271 / 0.458
/ Log scale correlation of the random effect on redhead and canvasback survival / 0.49 / 0.148 / 0.172 / 0.739
/ Log scale correlation of the random effect on redhead and canvasback fecundity / 0.745 / 0.091 / 0.524 / 0.886
/ Modulation factor for the random effect on redhead hatch year female survival compared to redhead adult male survival / 1.491 / 0.405 / 0.875 / 2.546
/ Modulation factor for the random effect on redhead adult female survival compared to redhead adult male survival / 0.449 / 0.222 / -0.105 / 0.833
/ Modulation factor for the random effect onredhead hatch year male survival compared to redhead adult male survival / -0.261 / 0.309 / -0.985 / 0.169
/ Modulation factor for the random effect oncanvasback hatch year female survival compared tocanvasback adult male survival / 0.855 / 0.181 / 0.573 / 1.269
/ Modulation factor for the random effect oncanvasbackadult female survival compared tocanvasback adult male survival / 0.442 / 0.106 / 0.241 / 0.651
/ Modulation factor for the random effect oncanvasback hatch year male survival compared tocanvasback adult male survival / 0.839 / 0.172 / 0.557 / 1.222