International definition

U5MR is the probability (expressed as a rate per 1,000 live births) of a child born in a specified year dying before reaching the age of five if subject to current age-specific mortality rates.

Calculation of estimates for MDG monitoring by the Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation

UNICEF developed, in coordination with WHO, the WB and UNPD (Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation), an estimation methodology that minimizes the errors embodied on each estimate and harmonize trends along time. After plotting all available values for infant and under-five mortality, analysts use weighted least squares to fit a multi-spline regression line to the data points and extrapolate the trend to the present. The use of weights allows analysts to make a judgment about the relative quality of each data set and how representative it is likely to be of the population. The last step is to decide which set of estimates (infant mortality or under-five mortality) is more consistent and to use a model life table to derive the other set of estimates from it.

Process of obtaining data

Each year, UNICEF’s executive director asks all of the UNICEF’s regional directors and country representatives - who are stationed in over 150 countries around the world - to update the data already available at headquarters.

National data sources

Data can be obtained from vital registration systems, sample registration systems, national population censuses, and/or household surveys.

Explanation of most common discrepancies between national and international coverage estimates

1) Use of regression model to produce estimates vs use of one specific source.

2) Use of different estimation methods.

3) Use of different data sources.

Comparison of national and international data

National data Data available at UNICEF

Year / Data / Data source / Discrepancies? Causes? / Data sources / Estimates / Year
1990 / - MICS 2000, 2006
- PAPFAM 1993, 2001
- Census 1970, 1976, 1981, 1994
- EPI/CDD and Child Mortality Survey 1990
- World Fertility Survey 1978 / 37 / 1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 / 28 / 1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 / 22 / 2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 / 18 / 2005
2006
2007
2008 / 16 / 2008

National definition

Other data on file at UNICEF but not taken into account for MDG monitoring

Data source / Reason for exclusion for MDG monitoring

Data used at national level but not included in the MDG monitoring by UNICEF

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How to submit missing or new survey or census data for international monitoring to UNICEF?

Data from new nationally representative household surveys and censuses, as well as from nationally representative surveys not listed in this document can be send to: Danzhen You, UNICEF, e-mail: .

Remarks

If there are any errors or omissions in this document, thank you for returning a corrected copy of this file by email to: and

UNSD and ESCWA meeting, Beirut, December 2009