Information on Doctoral Thesis

INFORMATION ON DOCTORAL THESIS

1. Full name:Vo Van Hoa

2. Sex: Male

3. Date of birth: Feb 1st 1980

4. Place of birth: Hanoi

5. Admission decision number: Number 5429/QD-SDH on Feb 1st 2010

6. Changes in academic process: Not yet

7. Official thesis title: Application of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) to weather forecast at Viet Nam

8. Major: Meteorology and Climatology

9. Code: 62 44 02 22

10. Supervisors: Dr. Bui Minh Tang and Prof. Phan Van Tan

11. Summary of the new findings of the thesis:

- The thesis chosen and successfully applied some suitable Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) with Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System(SREPS) at National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF).

- The verification results shown out the great efficiency of EMOS methods in improving the ensemble mean and probabilistic forecast quality for surface temperature variables of SREPS at NCHMF.

- The thesis is determined the most effective EMOS method and pointed out the operational applying capacity of this method at NCHMF.

12. Paratical applicability, if any:

The thesis chosen and successfully applied some suitable Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) with Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System(SREPS) at National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF). The verifying based on 3 years experiment (2008-2010) indicates the great efficiency of EMOS methods in improving the ensemble mean and probabilistic forecast quality for surface temperature variables of SREPS at NCHMF and also points out the operational applying capacity of this method at NCHMF.

13. Further research directions, if any:

- Continuously research on Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS).

- Take chosen EMOS methods into the operation at NCHMF.

- Research on applying EMOS methods for improving the other atmospheric variables and atmospheric fields

- Research on optimalize chosen EMOS methods that used empirical/experimental cofficients in order to be suitable with Viet Nam conditions.

14. Thesis-related publications:

[1] Võ Văn Hòa, Lê Đức, Đỗ Lệ Thủy, Dư Đức Tiến, Nguyễn Mạnh Linh, Nguyễn Thanh Tùng, 2010a: Research on updatable model output statistics based on UMOS and Kalman filter methods. Part I: Methodology. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal, 593, p 27-34.

[2] Võ Văn Hòa, Lê Đức, Đỗ Lệ Thủy, Dư Đức Tiến, Nguyễn Mạnh Linh, Nguyễn Thanh Tùng, 2010b: Research on updatable model output statistics based on UMOS and Kalman filter methods. Part II: The preliminary results. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal, 594, p 17-28.

[3] Võ Văn Hòa, Lê Đức, Đỗ Lệ Thủy, Dư Đức Tiến, Nguyễn Mạnh Linh, Nguyễn Thanh Tùng, 2012a: Development of short range ensemble prediction system based on multi-models mutil-analysis. Part I: Methodology. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal, 615, p 47-53.

[4] Võ Văn Hòa, Lê Đức, Đỗ Lệ Thủy, Dư Đức Tiến, Nguyễn Mạnh Linh, Nguyễn Thanh Tùng, 2012b: Development of short range ensemble prediction system based on multi-models mutil-analysis. Part II: The preliminary results for ensemble mean forecast. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal, 616, p 22-31.

[5] Võ Văn Hòa, Lê Đức, Đỗ Lệ Thủy, Dư Đức Tiến, Nguyễn Mạnh Linh, Nguyễn Thanh Tùng, 2012c: Development of short range ensemble prediction system based on multi-models mutil-analysis. Part III: The preliminary results for probabilistic forecast. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal, 617, p 22-30.

[6] Võ Văn Hòa, Bùi Minh Tăng, Phan Văn Tân, 2013a: The Ensemble Model Output Statistics and its application in Viet Nam. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal (submitted, going to print at Jan 2014).

[7] Võ Văn Hòa, Bùi Minh Tăng, Phan Văn Tân, 2013b: Application of the Ensemble Model Output Statistics methods to improve forecast skill of SREPS. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal (submitted, going to print at Feb 2014).

[8] Võ Văn Hòa, Bùi Minh Tăng, Phan Văn Tân, 2013b: A study of using probabilistic distribution function adjusting methods to improve ensemble-mean and probabilistic forecast skill of SREPS. Scientific and Technical Hydro-Meteorological Journal (submitted, going to print at Feb 2014).