India’s Unborn Daughters - Victims of Demographic Terrorism
Ashish Bose
Abstract
I have every reason to believe, on the basis of census analysis and field work in various parts of India, that the 2011 census will record a further decline in the child sex-ratio (number of girls per 1000 boys in the age group 0-6 years). India’s has launched several national programmes in the filed of health like eradication of small-pox, leprosy, polio, malaria and lately, HIV/AIDS. But we have not given enough attention to a greater malaise which goes beyond health and has much wider ramifications. In fact, the continuing decline in the sex-ratio at birth is indicative of our civilisational collapse.
It is beyond the competence and comprehension of our bureaucrats in the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare and for that matter, the Ministry of Women and Child Development to curb female foeticide. It is tempting to think that our religious leaders will be able to sway the people to change their reproductive behaviour and abandon female foeticide but unfortunately the religious factor is at a discount and this approach has not worked. The less said about our politicians, the better. Their credibility in the eyes of people is an all time low. The talk of civil society is internationally popular but is not understood in India. One is driven to the conclusion that some other strategic interventions are called for, without writing off the bureaucrats, religious leaders and politicians.
One strategic intervention on the part of the government is to introduce new social legislation and also seek help in a big way from concerned NGOs to make a massive effort to eradicate the social menace of female foeticide. Political will and the strong arm of law (as the Supreme Court has demonstrated) can work wonders.
The starting point in all our efforts should be creation of a scientific database on female foeticide. I would urge the Indian Statistical Institute which is a pioneering institute in India with international reputation to take up this role. Not many people are aware of the priority tables in the Census of 2001. In my view, census tables on child sex ratio were an unintended by product of the government’s concern for generating literacy tables on a priority basis. The calculation of literacy in the 2001 census excluded the age group 0-6 from the denominator; i.e. the rate was calculated for the age group 7+. Since all tables must give data separately by sex and also by rural-urban breakdown, in the very first Census paper of 2001, we have figures for child sex ratio (CSR) for the age group 0-6. Since the Census Commissioner, Mr. J. K. Banthia was conversant with Demography, he noticed the drop in CSR and presented detailed data in Census Paper 1 of 2001 - Supplement: To quote him:
“….the decline in child sex ratio is assuming an alarming proportion in certain districts of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and the decline in majority of the districts in other states and union territories across the country (Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, Delhi, etc) is rather intriguing. The social cultural bias against the girl child might have been possibly aggravated by recent medical support in terms of sex determination tests and requires further field investigation. Before arriving at any definite conclusion among other details we have to wait for single year age wise disaggregated population data for the 2001 Census”.
Even single year age data will not enough for a proper analysis as CSR which is affected by mortality and migration. Along with Dr. Mira Shiva, an eminent medical scientist, I did field work on female foeticide in Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. This study was sponsored by one of India’s leading NGOs, (Voluntary Health Association of India). Our monograph was published with the title ‘Darkness At Noon’ (2003) and was dedicated to “all the unborn girls of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh”.
Following my earlier acronym BIMARU for the demographically sick states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, I coined a new acronym DEMARU which stands for Daughter Eliminating Male Aspiring Rage for Ultrasound (in short, daughter killers).
There are three pre-conditions for the spread of female foeticide, namely, road connectivity, availability of doctors with ultrasound machines and the client’s capacity to pay for the cost of test and abortion. Of course, the overriding factor is the deep-rooted ‘son complex’ in Indian society (barring exceptions). The three preconditions explain why the middle class and upper middle class have taken to this perverse practice, and not the poor. The BIMARU states do not fulfill condition three, namely the ability to pay, which is the trigger for greedy doctors, and also precondition one (road connectivity).
Strategic intervention is also called for to tackle the second precondition, namely, the doctors. We are aware of the PNDT act of 1994 and the modified PCPNDT Act which have failed to punish the doctors. The law is going the same way as the Child Marriage Restraint Act of 1929, subsequently modified in 1978. Unfortunately, the sporadic incentives given for the girl child in different states basically centres around money power. For example, Himachal Pradesh has announced a scheme for giving Rs. 1,200 for each new born girl child. The amount may be an incentive for a poor family but not for a middle class family. In any case, the poor are not going for female foeticide.
The Central and State governments have to think seriously about innovative laws which can be effective and not just think of cash incentives. The law should not only punish the doctors but also the parents of daughters who are nipped in the bud. Our field work shows that female foeticide is mixed up with the two child norm (which is getting widespread acceptance in India). It is quite usual to find that the most preferred family formation is one son and one daughter, if not two sons. The most unhappy situation is to have 2 or 3 daughters. This is the category which goes for the test and sex selective abortion. Even in the case families where the first child is a daughter, there is every possibility that in order to ensure that the second child is a son, they will go for the test and abortion.
Our fieldwork also reveals that people are justifying female foeticide in the name of small family. It is unfortunate that even government schemes like Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) give additional cash incentives, if any woman undergoes sterilisation after the delivery of a child in an institution (hospital, CHC, etc). Unless there is conceptual clarity and consistency in various programmes lunched by the government, there will be confusion all around.
As an effective deterrent to female foeticide, I would suggest bold legislation which will debar sons of parents who have taken recourse to female foeticide to get any job in the government/public sector, defence services etc. All over India, there is a great craze for government jobs at any level. This is the justification for my argument in favour of such legislation. Of course, it is extremely difficult to identify people indulging in female foeticide. This calls for a very innovating monitoring system and keeping a record of every pregnancy and the out come pregnancy at the village/town/city level. Action is called for at the local level. At the same time, one has to be careful that the system is culturally sensitive and does not violate human rights and individual privacy. There are quite a few success stories in India about innovative intervention at the local level by district magistrates, NGOs etc. Case studies must be made of such interventions.
We must not only stall the continuing trend of sex selective abortion but take bold step to eradicate it. Female foeticide is a disgrace and a tragedy, unacceptable to any civilised society.
Honorary Professor, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi. Member, National Commission on Population
I am deeply grateful to Indian Statistical Institute, and in particular, to the Economic Research Unit and Dr. Manoranjan Pal for giving me the opportunity for participating in the Platinum Jubilee celebrations this year. My humble felicitations on this occasion. The late Professor Mahalanobis ignited so many minds and put ISI on the world map. We are indeed proud of our brilliant statisticians working all over the world.
Let me now turn to the subject I have chosen for the keynote address, namely, the growing menace of sex selective abortion, or simply put, female foeticide, which I consider to be a greater menace than HIV/AIDS in India.
Let me briefly (though bluntly) conceptualise the issues at the outset. Planned (both at the family and community level) female foeticide is a form of demographic terrorism which in turn is motivated by demographic fundamentalism which reflects the deep-rooted son-complex in Indian society (as in many other societies around the world). The son complex cannot be changed by academic arguments or newspaper advertisements. One may legitimately ask : the son complex has always been there but why should this be responsible for female foeticide now?
This phenomenon calls for some explanation. In this ontext, the concept of livelihood security is important and must be understood by policy makers and planners. In the name of rational attitude, one may condemn the son complex as superstition, which unfortunately it is not. It is a strategy of survival in an agricultural country. Simply put, a son is an asset, a daughter a liability. But there is nothing new in this argument and this alone cannot explain the upsurge of female foeticide in India.
I believe that there are at least four factors which have triggered off the inherent son complex to produce the phenomenon we are describing. These factors are : (i) the advent of medical technology which enables one to know the sex of the unborn child in advance ( by pre -birth sex-determination tests), (ii) availability of doctors who can perform the tests as well as the availability of the necessary equipments with them, (iii) capacity of the client to pay the doctor for the test as well as for the abortion, if the foetus is female, and (iv) human settlement pattern, the road network and the connectivity of villages with big towns and cities.
Let me reflect on the future for a while. Medical technology is getting increasingly sophisticated. This will further facilitate female foeticide. The number of doctors who can conduct these tests is increasing. The CCPNDT Act has put some brakes on doctors but my field work shows that doctors are cleverer than bureaucrats and legal experts. Nothing much is happening or likely to happen by way of prosecuting doctors for violation of the Act. The third factor concerns the capacity of the client to pay for the services which obviously is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Therefore, one can argue that with increasing urbanization and high growth rates of GDP, things will only worsen, as far as female foeticide is concerned. The fourth factor is about connectivity. Here again, we may note that there will be a vast increase in the years to come in road transportation. Add to this, the mobile phone revolution in India which has made a quantum jump in connectivity. The future scenario, therefore, seems to me to be bleak.
If my line of thought is accepted, it follows that there is every possibility that female foeticide will spread all over India. Whatever statistical evidence we have give indication that female foeticide is indeed spreading all over India and is not confined to Punjab or Haryana. Measures like the CCPNDT Act are welcome but cannot fight this menace. This calls for strategic thinking. I hope this national seminar will generate new ideas which are sound both at the conceptual and operational level. One may recall what happened to the Child Marriage Restraint Act of 1929 with modification later. Has it really succeeded in curbing child marriages even after seven decades ? Let the PCPNDT Act not meet the same fate.
Let me now turn briefly to the consequences of continuing female foeticide. My thesis is simple : Demographic terrorism reflected in female foeticide will end up in full–scale terrorism. Millions of young men without jobs and without wives may choose the path of violence and take to crime of all sorts, and in particular, crime against women. In short, female foeticide will fuel widespread terrorism. In this context, it is important to note that in the next few decades, India’s age structure is such that the work force will increase rapidly adding more young persons looking for employment every year. It is unlikely that the entire addition to the youthful population in the working age group will get employment, in spite of higher growth rates of GDP.
Let us think of possible intervention strategies to curb this perverse phenomenon. A word of caution is called for. In a country of India’s enormous population size end incredible diversity, it would be hazardous to look for blanket solutions. We should start with collecting reliable data on the trend of sex ratio at birth at the village/town/city level. This will help the planners and administrator in devising appropriate strategies which are region specific and culture specific. Above all we must entrust the task of monitoring to competent organisations, preferably outside the government to study the trend and take appropriate action. Now that we have an effective decentralised system of governance at the local level through PRIs (Panchayati Raj Institutions) and urban local bodies (as per the 73rd and 74th Amendments to the Constitution) we must take these organisations into confidence. But initially it would be difficult for the elected representatives to grasp the complexities of the task involved. The help of concerned NGOs must be sought in a big way. This seminar may deliberate on some of these intervention strategies and add to my list. Above all it is necessary to interact with people in a big way as statistical data alone may not give us a true picture. It is very important to conduct intelligent field surveys all over India. ISI could give a lead in this direction.
2001 Census and After
Soon after the provisional results of the 2001 census were released, I did a quick analysis of the child sex ratio (0-6 years) and reported that the most dismal finding of this census was in regard to the sharp decline in the child sex ratio. Not many people are aware of the priority tables in the Census of 2001. In my view, census tables on child sex ratio were an unintended by product of the government’s concern for generating literacy tables on a priority basis. The calculation of literacy in the 2001 census excluded the age group 0-6 from the denominator; i.e. the rate was calculated for the age group 7+. Since all tables are required to give data separately by sex and also by rural-urban breakdown, in the very first Census paper of 2001, we have figures for child sex ratio (CSR) for the age group 0-6.
Since the Census Commissioner, Mr. J. K. Banthia was conversant with Demography, he noticed the drop in CSR and presented districtwise data in Census Paper 1 of 2001 - Supplement: To quote him:
“….the decline in child sex ratio is assuming an alarming proportion in certain districts of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and the decline in majority of the districts in other states and union territories across the country (Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, Karnataka, Assam, Delhi, etc) is rather intriguing. The social cultural bias against the girl child might have been possibly aggravated by recent medical support in terms of sex determination tests and requires further field investigation. Before arriving at any definite conclusion among other details we have to wait for single year age wise disaggregated population data for the 2001 Census”.
This was no doubt a cautious approach of a bureaucrat. But even single year age data will not be enough for a proper analysis as CSR which is affected by mortality and migration. Analysis of CSR is not the best way to study female foeticide. It is more important to have trend data on the sex ratio at birth. Along with Dr. Mira Shiva, an eminent medical scientist, I did field work on female foeticide in three of the worst districts (with the lowest CSR) of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. This study was sponsored by one of India’s leading NGOs, (Voluntary Health Association of India). The monograph was published in 2003, perhaps the first such study after the 2001 census results were published. ( Ashish Bose and Mira Shiva, ‘Darkness At Noon’ ) It was dedicated to “all the unborn girls of Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh”.
Following my earlier acronym BIMARU which covers the demographically sick states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, I coined a new acronym DEMARU which stands for Daughter Eliminating Male Aspiring Rage for Ultrasound (in short, daughter killers).