Illinois Job Index

Release
04/04/2013 / Data
Jan 1990 / Feb 2013 / Issue
2013.03 / www.real.illinois.edu

For Feb Illinois Job Index, IL, RMW and the Nation all had positive job growth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

­ / Mar
2013
Positive / Jan 2013– Feb 2013 / Last 12 months / Feb 2013
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R. *
Nation / 0.18 / 236,000 / 1.48 / 1,966,000 / 12.0%
RMW / 0.29 / 55,700 / 1.07 / 202,700 / 13.9%
Illinois / 0.21 / 12,400 / 1.12 / 64,300 / 11.7%

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes / §  Illinois added 12,400 jobs in Feb 2013, compared with a revised 4,600 job gains in Jan 2013. Compared to Feb 2012, Illinois has added 64,300 jobs. The three-month moving average of jobs, a more stable measure of labor market, was up by 3,900 jobs per month.
§  The Nation added 236,000 jobs at a rate of 0.18%, compared with a revised 119,000 job gains in Jan 2013. The three-month moving average of jobs was up by 191,300 jobs per month.
§  RMW added 55,700 jobs in Feb at a rate of 0.29% after a revised 38,700 job gains in Jan 2013. The three-month moving average was up by 36,100 jobs per month.
§  Since the beginning of the recession in Dec 2007, Illinois has posted negative job changes 31 times and positive job gains 31 times so far. The state of Illinois now has a net loss of 198,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession in December 2007.
§  Four sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, Information and Financial activities.
§  Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 205,700 new jobs.
§  By Feb 2013, sectors Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality. For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
§  The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 11.7%, 13.9% and 12.0%, compared to official unemployment rates of 9.5%, 7.5% and 7.7%.
§  Through Feb 2013, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 9.93%, 12.47%, and 23.73%, respectively.
Nation
Notes / §  Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 236,000 jobs. Sectors such as Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation and utilities, Information, Financial activities, Professional & business services, Education & health, Leisure & hospitality and Other services had major job gains.
§  Since the last employment peak in December 2007, the nation has lost 2,996,000 jobs. However, for RMW and Illinois, they have not yet recovered from their respective peaks in 2000.
§  The nation has average growth rates for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 were 0.07%, -0.27 %, -0.32%, 0.07%, 0.13%, 0.14% and 0.15%, respectively.
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – Feb 2013
Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
Feb 2013
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 135,046,000 / 123.73 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 25,901,000 / -2,996,000
RMW / 19,221,600 / 112.47 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 2,131,000 / -1,177,400
Illinois / 5,789,900 / 109.90 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 521,600 / -267,100
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rate Mar 2012 – Feb 2013

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure 681,900 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, 2000-Nov. The gap between the previous peak 2000-Nov and the previous lowest point 2009-Dec is 472,800. Adding 209,100, the number of jobs that needed to bring the shadow and official unemployment rates together, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create is 681,900.

**The figure 29,900 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 205,700 represents the jobs recovered from Dec. 2009 through Feb 2013.

Employment Growth Rate by Sector:

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by Sector Jan 2013- Feb 2013
Sector notes / §  Illinois posted positive change in Feb 2013 by adding 12,400 jobs. Seven out of ten sectors recorded net gains. Compared to Jan, Professional & business services (-0.03% to 0.91%) had a major performance gain; Other services (0.68% to -0.20%) had a major performance loss. Construction (0.87% to 1.35%), Manufacturing (-0.05% to 0.07%), Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.31% to 0.05%) and Government (-0.18 % to 0.10%) experienced net performance gain while Information (-0.10% to -0.50%), Financial activities (0.62% to 0.03%), Education & health (0.40 % to -0.01%) and Leisure & hospitality (0.24% to 0.20%) experienced net losses in performance.
§  In Feb at the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
o  Professional & business services: 73,000 (0.40%)
o  Construction: 48,000 (0.84%)
o  Information: 20,000 (0.75%)
§  Major losses at the national level in Feb were recorded by:
o  Government: -10,000 (-0.05%)
§  For Illinois, the top three job-gain sectors in Feb were:
o  Professional & business services: 7,900 (0.91%)
o  Construction: 2,500 (1.35%)
o  Leisure & hospitality: 1,100 (0.20%)
§  Following are the major sectors that lost jobs in Feb for Illinois:
o  Information: -500 (-0.50%)
o  Other services: -500 (-0.20%)
o  Education & health: -100 (-0.01%)
§  For Illinois, four sectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has -339,900 fewer jobs, Construction is down -43,000 jobs, Information down -31,200 jobs and Financial activities down -1,600 jobs.
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector Jan 1990 – Feb 2013
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -43,000 / -18.66 / 1.04 / 6.68
Manufacturing / - / - / -339,900 / -36.85 / -27.25 / -32.70
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 18,400 / 1.60 / 3.59 / 13.63
Information / - / - / -31,200 / -23.94 / -17.73 / 1.01
Financial activities / - / - / -1,600 / -0.43 / 14.59 / 19.10
Professional & business services / - / - / 303,600 / 53.08 / 63.29 / 69.24
Education & health / - / - / 346,100 / 65.41 / 66.48 / 91.15
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 156,200 / 40.69 / 29.68 / 50.22
Other Services / + / - / 45,900 / 22.32 / 18.15 / 29.87
Government / - / - / 75,500 / 10.00 / 10.19 / 20.34
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – Feb 2013
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-Feb 2013 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-Feb 2014 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / -16,500 / -25.86% / -20,200 / -31.66%
Manufacturing / -114,500 / 27,500 / 24.02% / 30,200 / 26.38%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,100 / 45,500 / 46.86% / 59,100 / 60.87%
Information / -11,300 / -5,300 / -46.90% / -6,400 / -56.64%
Financial activities / -32,700 / 6,000 / 18.35% / 13,700 / 41.90%
Professional & business services / -92,700 / 94,700 / 102.16% / 119,500 / 128.91%
Education & health / 32,200 / 53,700 / -- / 75,200 / --
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 28,200 / 126.46% / 38,900 / 174.44%
Other services / -6,300 / -4,100 / -65.08% / -2,700 / -42.86%
Government / 5,600 / -25,500 / -- / -17,200 / --

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector / §  During the recession period of Dec 2007-Dec 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced negative job growth. Education & health and Government are the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
§  Since Jan 2010, Illinois employment resumed. Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered 24.02%, 46.86%, 18.35%, 102.16%, 126.46%, respectively, from the job lost during the recession.
§  By Feb 2013, sectors Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
§  However, Construction, Information and Other services continued to lose jobs leading to negative recovery rates of -25.86%, -46.90% and -65.08% respectively.
§  The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates will increase for sectors such as Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality.
§  For sectors such as Construction and Information, they will continue to lose jobs with faster rates.
Construction / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 1.35 / 2,500
RMW / 0.9 / 6,200
Nation / 0.84 / 48,000
Manufacturing / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.07 / 400
RMW / 0.24 / 6,400
Nation / 0.12 / 14,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.05 / 600
RMW / -0.06 / -2,100
Nation / 0.12 / 30,000
Information / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.50 / -500
RMW / 0.21 / 600
Nation / 0.75 / 20,000
Financial activities / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.03 / 100
RMW / 0.46 / 4,800
Nation / 0.09 / 7,000
Professional & business services / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.91 / 7,900
RMW / 0.64 / 14,900
Nation / 0.40 / 73,000
Education & health / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.01 / -100
RMW / 0.36 / 10,800
Nation / 0.12 / 24,000
Leisure & hospitality / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.20 / 1,100
RMW / -0.07 / -1,400
0.07 / 0.17 / 24,000
Other Services / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.20 / -500
RMW / 0.08 / 600
Nation / 0.02 / 1,000
Government / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013 / Jan 2013 – Feb 2013
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.10 / 800
RMW / 0.50 / 14,400
Nation / -0.05 / -10,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at www.real.illinois.edu.

Illinois Jobs Index / release 04/04/2013 / www.real.illinois.edu / page 9