How successful was the Diem regime in stabilising South Vietnam in the period between 1954 and 1963?
The South Vietnamese government faced a series of crises from its inception in 1954, and never managed to achieve any real stability in the nine years that followed. Had it not been for American support, the Diem regime would almost certainly have collapsed.
Perhaps the biggest problem faced by the government of Ngo Dinh Diem was its lack of political legitimacy. The regime was seen by many as a puppet of the United States, depending as it did on US advice, money and armaments. By contrast, Ho Chi Minh’s government enjoyed widespread popularity, including among many in the south. These people believed that the nation would be unified following nation-wide elections in 1956.
The problems Diem faced were exacerbated by his own background and personality. Diem was a Catholic, who shared little in common with the country’s Buddhist majority. He alienated many by appointing Catholics to senior government positions, and by introducing pro-Catholic laws banning divorce, contraception, spiritualism and occultism.
Diem was a traditionalist, and looked to South Vietnam’s traditional elite for support. He angered many peasants by seizing land that had been given to them by the Vietminh, and returning it to its original owners. Finally, Diem was an autocrat, who would brook no opposition to his will. He preferred to crush his opponents rather than negotiate with them. As such, he attacked the Vietminh, branding them as traitors and subjecting them to death and imprisonment – even desecrating their graves. He also attacked groups that might otherwise have supported him, such as the Cao Dai and Hoa Hau sects.
Diem’s political problems were compounded by his decision to abandon the nation-wide election agreed to at Geneva. His opponents in the south now realised there would be no peaceful reunification of Vietnam. Faced with that reality and with harsh political repression, they elected to resume hostilities in 1957. The NLF was formed in 1960.
Diem now made a series of errors which worsened the situation. He ordered his military to bomb suspected Viet Cong villages, a strategy which only infuriated the inhabitants. He also herded the peasants into strategic hamlets, to keep them under army control. Both these strategies drove the rural population into the arms of the enemy.
By 1961, the situation had become critical. The Viet Cong had inflicted a series of devastating defeats on Diem’s army. Meanwhile, in the cities, the Buddhists launched a series of protests, which Diem and his brother Nhu crushed violently. South Vietnam was spiraling out of control. Only the provision of more American aid kept it afloat.
The USnow had to make a choice: cut its losses and withdraw from South Vietnam, or dump Diem and hope that a new leader might do better. President Kennedy opted for the latter, but the manner of Diem’s overthrow did not bode well for the future.
By 1963, South Vietnam was in a state of crisis, with protests convulsing the cities and war devastating the countryside. While much of this was of Diem’s own making, much was also the result of the decision to divide Vietnam and establish a separate state in the south. In abandoning the election promised for 1956, Diem and the US made an enemy of the Vietminh. In putting Diem in charge, the US alienated large numbers of people who had not already thrown in their lot with Ho chi Minh. Only the commitment of American ground troops could now hope to turn the tide and salvage the regime.