Qatar-GCC Crisis:
Historical Roots, Current Crisis and the Future of US Foreign Policy in the Gulf
Chris Mellon, The Eurasia Center July 2017
On June 5, 2017, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen severed diplomatic relations with Qatar and imposed a land, sea and air embargo.[i]The Qatar diplomatic crisis continues with mixed signals from the US Administration over how to bring the conflict between Qatar and its GCC neighbors to an end. Qatar and the countries that cut off relations with it have refused to modify their positions and the United States is in a difficult position with allies in its coalition against the Islamic State in a state of conflict.This Eurasia Brief will examine the historical tensions between Qatar and the GCC going back decades, the key drivers of the current conflict from early June to early July 2017, and give forward looking projections on how the conflict might progress and what this means for the future of US foreign policy in the Gulf.
Historical Roots of 2017 Qatar-GCC Crisis
Qatar and the GCC have a long history of conflict.In 2014, the GCC countries Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE severed diplomatic ties with Qatar because of Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi Arabia and the UAE have labeled as a terrorist organization.[ii]The GCC countries claimed that Qatar had not lived up to the 2013 GCC Security Agreement to not become involved in the domestic politics of GCC states and undermine their rulers.[iii]Tensions also arose over Al Jazeera, a major news organization based in Qatar, and Doha was labeled as hostile to the GCC countries for allowing dissidents airtime to air their grievances against Gulf regimes. Relations were restored a few months later but the same issues were raised again in the current 2017 crisis.
The 2011 Arab Revolutions that challenged rulers across the Middle East also inflamed tensions between Qatar and the GCC’s most powerful state, Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia and Qatar supported different sides in the revolutions in their competition for influence.[iv]Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and financially aided President Morsi while Saudi Arabia supported the Egyptian military and the future President al-Sisi in the military’s takeover of power. Qatar and Saudi Arabia also supported different factions in Libya’s civil war following the fall of Qaddafi.[v] In Tunisia’s post-Ali period, Qatar and Saudi Arabia supported different political parties.[vi] In Syria, both countries competed to fund rebel groups.[vii]
Today’s conflict can be traced back most directly to the recent historical tensions over their vying for influence during the period of the Arab Revolutions. Saudi Arabia saw the Arab Revolutions as a possible direct challenge to the rule of the Saudi Royal family and Qatar saw an opening to use its financial resources to increase its influence in the region. In fact, Al-Jazeera covered the Arab Spring by giving coverage and allowing a platform for the people from the Arab Streets to discuss their feelings. Some analysts note that after President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May 2017, the Saudis saw an opening, with the president’s support fully behind the Kingdom, to take the strongest action against its rival Qatar in decades.
Various tensions between Qatar and the GCC emerged in the preceding decades as well, and demonstrate that today’s crisis is another chapter in a long-standing feud between Qatar and its GCC neighbors. In 2006, Saudi Arabia refused to allow Qatar to build a gas pipeline through Saudi territory to Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia raised objections over the building of a gas pipeline from Qatar to the UAE and Oman.[viii]Saudi Arabia also worked against construction of bridges between Qatar and Bahrain and the UAE. In 2002, after negative statements against the Saudi government were aired on Al-Jazeera, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador was recalled from Qatar.[ix]In 1996, Qatar and Saudi Arabia finally settled a border dispute with a formal agreement after years of tension over the border separating the two countries that had lasted a decade and even led to border clashes killing three in 1992. In 1994, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supported different sides in Yemen’s Civil War.[x] In 1991 Qatar and Bahrain almost went to war over control of the Hawar Islands, and were prevented from going to war with Saudi intervention.[xi]
Key Developments in Latest Qatar-GCC Crisis
The current conflict was triggered by Qatar’s relatively independent foreign policy compared to the other GCC countries with its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, closer ties to Iran than its neighbors, its Al-Jazeera media channel’s willingness to host critics of Gulf regimes and its alleged terrorist financing support. Qatar has rejected a list of demands from the opposition countries: to close Al-Jazeera, close Turkey’s military base in Qatar, reduce its ties to Iran, cut of ties with the Muslim Brotherhood and its accused ties to ISIS and al-Qaeda. Qatar has called the demands unrealistic, and the document does not specify the consequences if Qatar fails to follow through. Qatar’s National Human Rights Committee is working with an international law firm to help Qatari citizens receive payment for damages caused by the blockade.[xii] As of July 1, 2017, the Saudi position has been not to negotiate over their list of demands presented to Qatar, which would lift the air, sea, and land blockade, as Qatar rejects this as violating diplomatic norms of international relations.[xiii] The Gulf States are even considering more strict economic sanctions against Qatar.[xiv]
The conflict could continue for months like the previous diplomatic standoff in 2014. US leadership may be required to lead the way in resolving the conflict with its Gulf allies. The US will push hard to resolve the conflict as it tries to keep its anti-ISIS coalition together following President Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia last month. The real problem of the deterioration of Saudi-Qatar relations may be also linked to personal relationships between members of the Qatar royal family and the new crown prince of Saudi Arabia. There is also other issues, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar funding different anti-Assad forces within Syria which are now fighting each other given the fact that Government forces have displaced them from their respective areas.
The US administration has sent mixed signals over the conflict, indicating that the White House, State Department and Pentagon are continuing to work out their positions. When the GCC countries cut off relations with Qatar on June 5, President Trump appeared to praise the decision calling Qatar high-level terrorism funder, a charge that Doha denies. However, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called for measured dialogue between the countries in order to bring the conflict to an end, and the Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis stated that ties with Qatar were still strong as the country is an ally in the US-led coalitions fight against ISIS and houses one of the major US military bases in the region. On July 10, 2017, in a visit to Doha, Tillerson attempted to start the process of resolving the conflict by having the United States and Qatar sign an agreement aimed at combating the financing of terrorism.
The Future of US Foreign Policy in the Gulf: Counterterrorism Priority
Ultimately, US involvement may hinge on Qatar’s ties to terrorist financing. Although Doha denies such charges, an exhaustive report by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies convincingly shows that Qatar has failed to adequately prosecute individuals living in Qatar that have been sanctioned by the US for terrorist financing.[xv] In order to resolve the conflict, Qatar may be forced to take a more proactive approach than they did previously allowing many terrorist financers to continue living in Qatar without legal consequences in order to resolve the conflict. President Trump’s political platform is heavily dependent on combating terrorism, and his early June comments on the conflict show that terrorism continues to be the primarily lens through which the president views the present conflict. It is possible that the diplomatic and economic pressure imposed on Qatar by the GCC, and the addition of US diplomatic pressure to cut off terrorist financing from individuals living in Qatar may be the key to resolving the conflict.
However, Qatar’s status as the highest per capita income country in the world, in addition to receiving support from Iran and Turkey, will make the economic and diplomatic pressure imposed by the GCC hard to implement real change in Qatar. Qatar has proven to be resistant to the list of demands imposed by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the U.A.E. as the deadline to comply with their demands expired on July 2, 2017, without any changes by Qatar. Qatar was been given another 48 hours to comply. Expect to see this crisis continue as Qatar appears, at this time, to have the resources to resist the demands of the GCC.
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[i]Ann Barnard and David D. Kirkpatrick, “5 Arab Nations Move to Isolate Qatar, Putting the U.S. in a Bind,” New York Times, June 5, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[ii]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[iii]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[iv]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[v]Max Fisher, “How the Saudi-Qatar Rivalry, Now Combusting, Reshaped the Middle East, NewYork Times, June 13, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[vi]Max Fisher, “How the Saudi-Qatar Rivalry, Now Combusting, Reshaped the Middle East,” NewYork Times, June 13, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[vii]Max Fisher, “How the Saudi-Qatar Rivalry, Now Combusting, Reshaped the Middle East,” NewYork Times, June 13, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[viii]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[ix]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017
[x]Max Fisher, “How the Saudi-Qatar Rivalry, Now Combusting, Reshaped the Middle East,” NewYork Times, June 13, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[xi]“Timeline of Qatar-GCC Disputes from 1991 to 2017,” Al-Jazeera, June 9, 2017, accessed June 22, 2017,
[xii]Qatar group to seek blockade damages from Gulf States, Al-Jazeera, June 11, 2017, accessed July 14, 2017,
[xiii] “Qatar condemns Saudi refusal to negotiate over demands,” BBC, June 28, 2017, accessed July 1, 2017,
[xiv]Qatar condemns Saudi refusal to negotiate over demands,” BBC, June 28, 2017, accessed July 1, 2017,
[xv]David Andrew Weinberg, “Qatar and Terror Financing: Part 1: Negligence,”Foundation for Defense of Democracies,December 2014, accessed on June 22, 2017,