Hand Evaluation

HAND EVALUATION

FORMULAS for 1st, 2ndand 4thSeat MARGINAL Openings
There are several popular “formulas” for determining when a marginal hand should be opened, instead ofdoing standard Initial Hand Evaluation, which follows on the next page. A crucial factor everywhere, including “formulas” is one of rebids: “If I open a marginal hand, do I have a reasonable rebid in all - or most – or no – cases?” Flat hands don’t have much rebid power. Vulnerability is always a factor too.
All will work or fail depending on partnership understanding. Each requires an awareness of what values opener can hold as a minimum to open. Allformulas won’t necessarily produce the same answer.
- Some arbitrary number of high card points:open any hand with 12 (13? 11?) HCP’s.
(Axx Kxx Kxxx Qxx) 12 HCP. If 12 is your number, open 1♣, not 1♦.
- High card points plus length points. HCP plus a point for each card over 4 in all suits.
(Axxxx Kx Kxxxx x) 12 “total points”. Open 1♠. An obvious rebid in Diamonds.
- High card points with two defensive tricks(QT): any hand with 12 (13? 11?) HCP’s that also
includes 2 sure tricks on defense.
(Axx Kxx Kxx Qxxx) but not (Kxx KJxx Qxx QJxx) 12 HCP butonly 1QT
- Quick Tricks: At least 2½ quick tricks, where A = 1 and K = ½ quick tricks.
(Axx Axx Kxx xxxx) but not (Kxx Kxxx Kxx Kxxx)
- Rule of 20: (Used in 1st and 2nd seats only): Open if the total of HCP’s plus the length of the two
longest suits equals 20 or more. Discount unsupported Q’s and J’s and upgrade Aces.
(AJxxx Kxxx Kxx x) but not (AJxx Kxx Axx xxx)
- Losing Trick Count: In each suit, count missing A’s, K’s, and Q’s. (Losers). If the count is 6
losers or less, open. 7 losers is optional but 8 should pass. Responder can then count her Winners.
Open: (Axxxx Kxxx KQx x) or (AJxx Kxxx Kxx Kx)
Don’t open: (AJx Kxx Kxx Qxxx) 13 HCP but 8 losers.
3rd Seat MAJOR Openings: Drury.
Third seat openings can be as weak as 8 or 9 HCP’s if you play Drury, butonly with a chunky
5+ card major. [P – P–?]
Open (AKxxx xxx Qxx xx)but not (Qxx xx AKxxx xxx)

MARGINAL Hand Evaluation: AN ALTERNATIVE TO “FORMULAS”

Suit length, texture and rebid considerations influence opening decisions in marginal hands.

Note these are considerations for deciding whether to open the bidding: values that are not fixed throughout the auction. The initial valuation can change quickly in either direction.

Length: start with HCP then add extra points for extra length, not for shortness. Add 1 point for each 5-card side suit and 2 points for each 6-card side suit and 3 points for any 7-card suit.

(KQxxxx x AQxxx x) 11 HCP plus 3 length points: 14 “points” total: open it.

Subtract 1 or 2 points for lots of Queens and Jacks, for doubleton honors, for honors in short suits, for square, flat hands and for no Aces. Devalue singleton or doubleton Queens or Jacks.

(KQxx Jxxx QJ QJx) An Aceless, flat, “Quacks” hand. Pass it.

Shortness: Don’t add points for shortness. Length often takes tricks, but shortness only helps if you have trumps to ruff with, and only if they are not wasted tricks because your trumps would be good tricks anyway.

(xxxx KQx AQxxx x) 11 HCP + 1 for a 5-card suit: not a vulnerable opener
and not any good rebid over a 1NT response, vulnerable or not. Pass it for now.

Texture: Texture is less exact than HCP or length, but is equally important. “Texture”is the value of intermediate cards in 4+ card suits: 10’s, 9’s and 8’s. aka “Pushers”. Such cards count more in support of suits with honors, especially touching honors. Example: KJ9 counts 4 HCP, but might not take any tricks, while QJT counts only 3 HCP but is usually a sure trick or stopper. Subtract 1 or 2 points for poor overall texture and add 1 or 2 for good overall texture.

Example: both A. & B. hands have 15 HCP + 2 length points. What can you make? Why?

A. (AKQ75 42 KQJ86 2) Dummy: (J84 A7T732 K875)

B. (AQ753 Q2 K8432 A)

Given this dummy, Hand A. is cold for 10 or 11 tricks in 4♠ but Hand B. might go down simply because of poor texture. Hand A has touching honors in long suits with no isolated honors. Hand B has isolated honors in Clubs and Hearts, broken long suits and poor intermediate cards. Which of the following would you open in 1st seat?

C. (AT9832 7 KQJT9 2) / F. (KQ3 AK75 Q952 53)
D. (KJ9 Q9732 AJ3 Q4) / G. (KQJ9 JT AT98 Q85)
E. (873 J5 AQ5 A7652) / H. (QJ2 Q2 Q6754 A62)

C.12+ Open 1 D. 12- Open 1 (& hate it) E. Pass – no rebid and terrible texture.

F. 14 Open 1 G. 11+ Open 1♣: not 1♦. H. 11- Pass

Hand Re-Evaluation

Re-evaluation as dummy. Once a suit fit has been found, you should re-evaluate your hand if you are going to be the short trump hand – not necessarily always the dummy. Add points for shortness - - doubletons, singletons and voids, at 1, 3 and 5 points respectively. It’s simple logic: shortness is now an asset because it lets you ruff opponents’ high card tricks in the shortsuit.

So you need both shortness and sufficient trumps to ruff, thereby scoring additional tricks if you are the short trump suit hand: what good does it do to ruff in the long-suit hand? Transportation? Yes. Extra tricks? No. That’s a reason that leading a trump is often a winning defense - - it reduces the value of shortness. And trump is often the least likely “bad lead” as well.
Re-evaluation as declarer. Don’t delude yourself that shortness takes tricks. Much of the time, declarer has the longer trump suit. But you can’t count shortness in the declarer’s hand because ruffing uses trumps that are good tricks anyway.
Give yourself extra playing value for 4+ card length in a side suit with texture. Points don’t take tricks; fits take tricks. Side 4-card suits should be chunky, i.e. have honors and intermediates.
5-card and longer side suits can be powerful trick takers even when relatively modest in high-card strength. Coupled with a fit in dummy, or a shortness in dummy, they are the difference makers in deciding to go to game/slam or to settle for a partial.
Re-evaluation in Competition. Re-evaluation of the value of your hand is necessary after every bid by partner or opponent, including pass. Once opponents enter the auction, the meaning of many of your bids may change. Some responses will become unavailable to you after opponents have taken up bidding space. [1♠ – 3♣ –? .
But some responses will become available that weren’t before - - Negative Doubles, redouble, CBLR’s or other Cue bids, for example.

- If your LHO (the opponent to your left) bids, your high cards in that suit must be devalued because they will be in front of high cards in that hand. Kings and Queens and even Jacks can be finessed. Even Aces in your hand are worth less (not worthless) because they won’t set up long suit tricks for your side: they will likely take one trick, but that’s all they can do in that hand.
-If RHO bids ahead of you, honors in that suit could become more valuable, but only on defense. The stronger or longer you are in opponent’s suits, the more you should consider defending rather than declaring. Because you can’t lead such honors, they don’t go up in value on offense.

-If you bid NoTrump after an opponent bids a suit, you promise good stoppers in that suit.

HAND RE-EVALUATION SUMMARY

Rule 1 of Hand Re-Evaluation

Your high cards go UP in value if they are in your long suits
andDOWN in value if they are in your opponents' suits, and
Your hand goes UP in value if you find a fit with
your partner, and DOWN if you don't.

Question: How many points does my hand go up or down?
Answer: It's not a matter of “points” per se. It's more about "pluses and minuses" and they are useful only when facing a close decision. For example, when deciding to bid game or pass at three, a Qx of your partner's suit is a magic 2 points - worth much more than if your opponents had bid that suit. So is any fourth trump, or any trump honor or 10’s and 9’s in 4+ card suits.

(KQXX QJ TXXX QXX) This hand goes up in value if partner bids NoTrump or Hearts but goes down if the opponents bid Hearts, because the QJ will probably become worthless.

Rule 2 of Hand Re-Evaluation

Honor cards in your opponents' suits are diminished in value if they are in front of the opponent most likely to have a
higher honor in a suit she bid – including your Ace.

Vulnerable Honors. Kings and Queens are vulnerable to finesse if they are located ahead of declarer. If located after, they are less vulnerable, but they still don't carry full weight for your side, because you can't lead them. They carry their weight for defense, but probably not for offense. They can also be end-played by skilled declarers.

South: (KQXX QJ TXXX QXX). This hand goes down if West bids Spades.

Rule 3 for Hand Re-Evaluation

Aces and Kings are worth more than the normal assigned point countand Queens and Jacks are worth less.

4,3,2,1 -- Not. The Point Count System is an approximation of strength, indicating that an Ace is worth 4 'points', a King 3, etc. In fact, Aces are worth more than 4, maybe 4.3, and Queens and Jacks are worth less, maybe 1.6 and 0.8. But, of course, we don't use such unwieldy numbers; 4,3,2,1 is tough enough. Nevertheless, 2 Queens are rarely as powerful or flexible as an Ace.

Combo's.Aces and Kings in combination with each other or in combination with partner's Aces and Kings are worth much more, as they will develop tricks in long suits if you are declarer. They are worth less in short suits -- such hands are more valuable on defense than offense.
AKxxx is a multiple trick-taker to declarer, butAKx isn’t. ♠AKx is good on defense, though.

Opponents' Ace. What's the value of an Ace of the opponent's trump suit? Is it ever going to take more than one trick? Rarely will it be of much additional value to the defense. It takes one trick, but so does declarer’s 6 of trump. Also, opponents bid knowing they didn’t have the Ace, so they aren’t afraid of it, and you shouldn’t be very proud of it. An ace in a suit you can establish will clearly be more valuable to you as declarer than will the opponents’ Ace.

Magic Card Combinations

There are some magic combinations of cards: Any honors in partners bid suits are magic as they fill in sketchy suits. A fourth trump, of any size, is powerful -- it has no point count value, but it's great for declarer's purposes. 10's and 9's and 8’s, especially in trump or long suits, are worth more than zero. Which of these hands would you rather have for a dummy opposite aKJxxx?

♦1098x or ♦ 6543

Singletons in opponents' suits are magic -- voids are even better. The worst holding is two of opponents' suit -- chances then are good that both you and your partner will have two, so opponents will take the first two tricks.

Partner's Queen. A Queen of your partner's rebid suit is a magic 2 points - it helps set up little card winners. An Ace is also great, but you already counted it for 4 points.

Summary

Get in the habit of constantly re-evaluating your hand during the bidding, even if it’s a poor one. Three things will happen when you develop this habit: you will be more focused on bridge and not thinking about dinner; a few times a session you can make a winning bid you otherwise wouldn’t think of, and you will be better positioned to devise or follow a defender or declarer plan when play starts. Re-evaluate after every bid or pass, by your partner or your opponents.

Special Cases: Evaluation and Re-Evaluation as Potential Dummy

Pluses to your hand

-A fit is good; a double fit is magic; a mis-fit is bad: stop bidding.

-Honors in partner’s suit are worth more than 4-3-2-1. Kx and Qx are magic fits in partner’s suits even though they are only 2 trumps. Trump 10’s and 10’s in 3 or 4 card side suits are worth 1/2 point. Value up aggressively.

-A fourth trump in dummy is worth at least one extra point.

-With 3+ trump support, count side-suit voids, singletons and doubletons as 5, 3 and 1 respectively. Don’t short count the value of such distribution.

-Add a point if holding a trump suit honor.

Minuses to your hand

-With a flat hand, scale back your hand’s value as dummy

-With honors in front of opponents’ suits, scale down significantly

-Honors in opponents’ suits are worth less than point count, including Aces

Responder re-evaluation Exercises:
Has the value of your hand changed when partner opened?

Hand # / 1  – P - ? / 1 – P - ? / 1– ?

KQXX QJ TXXX QXX

KQJTX XX KQJX XX

X AKXX QXX KQXXX

QXX AT98 QX KXXX

Re-Evaluation after Opening 1 of a Suit and a Response by Your Partner

Pluses

A fit is good; a double fit is magic; a miss-fit is bad: let opponents play them.
Honors in partner’s suit are worth more than 4-3-2-1. Kx and Qx are magic fits in partner’s suits. Trump 10’s and 10’s/9’s and 8’s in 3 or 4 card+ side suits are worth a point or so. Value up aggressively.
A 4th trump is worth at least one extra point, plus side-suit voids, singletons and doubletons, at 5, 3 and 1 respectively, if you’re the trumping hand.
Add a point if holding a trump suit honor as dummy.

Minuses

With a flat hand, devalue your hand’s value as dummy.
If partner bids your short suit, be nervous about a mis-fit possibility.
With honors in front of opponents’ suits, scale your hand down significantly.
Honors anywhere in opponents’ suits are less than point count, even Aces.
If your partner bids NT, consider passing or raising: it’s pre-emptive.

Rebid Exercises: How has the value of your opener changed as a result ofpartner’sresponse?

Opening Hand / A / B / C
1. AKQXX QJ TX QXXX / 1 – P – 1NT – P ? / 1 – P – 2 – P ? / 1 – P – 2 – P ?
2. KQJXX KQJX X AXX / 1 – P – 2 – P ? / 1 – 2 – P – P ? / 1 – P – 1NT# – P ?
3. QXXX AQX KTXX QX / 1 – P – 1 – P ? / 1 – P – 1 – P ? / 1 – Dbl – 2 – 2 ?
4. KJTX AKTX X KXXX / 1 – P – 1 – P ? / 1 – P – 1 – 1 ? / 1 – 1 – 1 – 2 ?

1A. Your Hearts go up: you have honors everywhere; you might have 5 Spade tricks: up a lot. Bid 2♣.

1B. Your Hearts are now unprotected: they may be worth nothing, so the value is down. Pass.

1C. A Two Over One Game force, so your Hearts will be valuable for now, heading for 3NT.

2A. Your Hearts and singleton just put this hand into slam space. Value is WAY up. Splinter bid 4♦.

2B. Partner didn’t show Hearts or much else for that matter, except maybe Diamonds. Double to reopen.

2C. She didn’t raise you, but could be strong with a Forcing 1NT. Rebid 2♥ to find out.

3A. She’ll like your Diamonds, but you can’t raise them yet. Bid 1♠, waiting.

3B. Great: a major suit fit, but your Club points are still worthless. A minimum 2♠ raise.

3C. Playing Inverted Minors, you have a Diamond fit, but nothing else. Bid 3♦ or 4♦ not vul vs. Vul?

4A. Partner will love your Spades: this hand now smells slammish with your singleton Diamond.

4B. Your hand probably just switched from offense to defense, as Hearts is your best suit.

4C. Your hand has gone up to at least 17+ “points”. Bid 3♠ or even a 4♦ Splinter.