Illinois Job Index

Release
6/29/2017 / Data
Jan 1990 /May2017 / Issue
2017.6 /

ForMay 2017Illinois Job Index, Illinoi, RMW and the nation allhad employmentgrowth.

The Illinois Job Index and MSA Report are issued monthly as tools for elected officials, policy leaders and the public. The objective is to enhance the understanding of the Illinois economy and business climate by comparing and measuring Illinois employment growth rates against those of the Rest of the Midwest (RMW: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Wisconsin) and the Nation. Data and analysis are provided by the Illinois Economic Observatory / Regional Economics Applications Laboratory, University of Illinois.

 / June
2017
Positive / Apr 2017– May 2017 / Last 12 months / May 2017
Total non-farm employment / Growth Rate % / Number of Jobs / Growth Rate% / Number of Jobs / Shadow U.R.*
Nation / 0.09 / 138,000 / 1.58 / 2,266,000 / 9.91
RMW / 0.06 / 12,700 / 1.29 / 259,800 / 9.44
Illinois / 0.04 / 2,400 / 0.58 / 34,700 / 9.41

*REAL has estimated a shadow unemployment rate; this is calculated as the unemployment rate that would be observed if labor force participation rates matched the average for the 15-year period from 1990 to 2004.

Talking Points
Illinois
Notes /
  • Illinoisadded 2,400jobs inMay 2017, compared with arevised 7,300job lossinApril 2017. Compared to May2016, Illinois has added34,700 jobs. The three-month moving average, a more stable measure of labor market, showed adecrease of4,200 jobs per month.
  • The Nation added138,000jobs at a rate of 0.09% in May, compared with a revised 174,000-job gain in April2017. The three-month moving average was up by 120,700 jobs per month.
  • The RMWadded 12,700 jobs inMay after arevised 9,900-jobgain inApril 2017. The three-month moving average was down by 100 jobs per month.
  • The state of Illinois now has 46,400 more jobs than in December 2007 when the recent recession started.
  • In 2017, Illinois had employment growth for3 months and employment decline for two months.
  • Three sectors in Illinois have employment levels this month that are lower than January 1990 – Construction, Manufacturing, and Information.
  • Since January 2010, when Illinois employment growth resumed after the national recession, Illinois has added 447,900 new jobs.
  • ByMay 2017 in Illinois, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality have both recovered to their previous employment peak levels. The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease for Construction, Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services, and Other services.
  • The shadow unemployment rates for Illinois, RMW and the Nation were 9.41%, 9.44% and 9.91%, compared to official unemployment rates of 4.6%, 4.0% and 4.3%.
  • ThroughMay 2017, the cumulative job growth for Illinois, RMW and the Nation compared to January 1990 stood at 14.49%, 19.54%, and 33.84%, respectively.

Nation
Notes /
  • Total nonfarm payroll employment was up by 138,000 jobs. Sectors such asLeisure & hospitality,Education & health, andProfessional & business serviceshad major job growth.
  • The nation has recovered from the recent recession andadded7,722,000additional jobs since the last employment peak in December 2007. RMW have also recovered from its peak in 2000 but Illinois have not.
  • The nation’s annual average growth rates from 2007 to 2017were -0.01%, -0.24%, -0.38%, 0.09%, 0.13%, 0.11%,0.12%, 0.14%, 0.12%, 0.03% and 0.11%respectively.

Total Non-farm Employment and Employment Index
May 2017
Number of Jobs / Current
Index to Jan 1990 / Previous Peak
Index to Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Jan 1990 / Changes in Jobs since Pervious Peak
Nation / 146,135,000 / 133.84 / 126.57 (Dec-2007) / 36,950,000 / 7,722,000
RMW / 20,430,600 / 119.54 / 119.44 (Jun-2000) / 3,340,000 / 26,100
Illinois / 6,031,600 / 114.49 / 115.08 (Nov-2000) / 763,300 / -22,400
Total Non-farm Employment growth rate Jan 1990 – May 2017
Last 12 months Total Non-farm Employment Growth Rates June2016 – May 2017

Barometer of Job Recovery

* The figure798,800 is the number of jobs needed for the Illinois economy to recover to the previous employment peak, Nov-2000. The gap between the previous peak, Nov-2000 and the previous lowest point,Dec-2009 is470,300. Adding328,500, the number of additional jobs that needed to be created after taking shadow unemployment rate into account, the total number of jobs that Illinois needs to create 798,800.

**The figure 26,100 represents the jobs recovered from December 2009 (previous lowest level) through June 2010.

*** The figure 447,900 represents the jobs recoveredfrom December 2009 throughMay 2017.

Employment Growth Rateby Sector:

Total Non-Farm Employment growth rate by Sector, April2017 – May 2017
Sector notes /
  • Illinois posted positiveemploymentchange inMay 2017 byadding2,400jobs.Five out of ten sectors recorded netgains. Compared to April2017, Construction(-1.94% to 1.89%) had the greatest performance gain, whileInformation(1.42% to 0.90%) had the greatest performance loss. Other Services (-0.40% to 0.24%), Leisure & hospitality(-0.53% to -0.03%), Education & health (0.29% to 0.40%), and Trade, transportation & utilities (-0.59% to -0.31%)experienced performance gains too,whileGovernment (0.07% to -0.30%), Professional & business services (0.07% to -0.07%) Financial Activities (0.15% to -0.03%) andManufacturing(0.39 % to 0.09%) also experienced net losses in performances.
  • In Mayat the national level, the top three job-gain sectors were:
  • Leisure & hospitality: 31,000 (0.20%)
  • Professional & business services: 38,000 (0.18%)
  • Education & health: 47,000(0.20%)
  • The top three sectors that lost jobs at the national level were:
  • Government: -9,000 (-0.04%)
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: -6,000 (-0.02%)
  • Information: -2,000 (-0.07%)
  • For Illinois, the top-threesectors thatgained jobs in Maywere:
  • Construction:4,000 (1.89%)
  • Education & health: 3,700 (0.40%)
  • Information: 900 (0.90%)
  • Thetop three sectors that lost jobs in Mayin Illinois were:
  • Trade, transportation & utilities: -3,700 (-0.31%)
  • Government: -2,500 (-0.30%)
  • Professional & business services: -700 (-0.07%)
  • For Illinois, threesectors have employment below 1990 levels. Compared to 1990 employment levels, Manufacturing has shed 349,200jobs, Construction is down 14,200jobs andInformation has29,100fewer jobs.

Total Non-farm Employment growth rate by sector June 1990 – May 2017
Illinois / RMW / Nation
vs. RMW / vs. / Number of Jobs / Rate % / Rate / Rate
Nation / % / %
Construction / - / - / -14,200 / -6.16 / 18.66 / 26.91
Manufacturing / - / - / -349,200 / -37.86 / -23.37 / -30.34
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / - / - / 53,000 / 4.62 / 8.88 / 20.32
Information / - / - / -29,100 / -22.33 / -21.22 / 1.99
Financial activities / - / - / 19,600 / 5.26 / 20.87 / 27.97
Professional & business services / - / - / 367,700 / 64.28 / 81.01 / 91.54
Education & health / - / - / 402,500 / 76.07 / 78.67 / 114.02
Leisure & hospitality / + / - / 211,500 / 55.09 / 40.77 / 71.07
Other Services / - / - / 44,600 / 21.69 / 25.07 / 36.08
Government / - / - / 67,600 / 8.95 / 11.15 / 22.88
Illinois job recovery by sector from Dec 2007 – May 2017
Job Changes in Recession Period* / Job Changes in Jan 2010-May2017 / Recovery Rate / Forecasted Job Changes Jan 2010-May2018 / Forecasted Recovery Rate
Construction / -63,800 / 12,300 / 19.28% / 10,600 / 16.61%
Manufacturing / -114,600 / 18,300 / 15.97% / 22,800 / 19.90%
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / -97,700 / 80,700 / 82.60% / 63,700 / 65.20%
Information / -11,300 / -3,200 / -28.32% / 1,600 / 14.16%
Financial activities / -32,600 / 19,300 / 59.20% / 29,700 / 91.10%
Professional & business services / -92,300 / 166,300 / 180.17% / 156,300 / 169.34%
Education & health / 33,800 / 111,100 / - / 123,300 / -
Leisure & hospitality / -22,300 / 83,500 / 374.44% / 90,300 / 404.93%
Other services / -5,900 / -5,800 / -98.31% / -6,500 / -110.17%
Government / 6,000 / -33,800 / - / -35,100 / -

*Recession period: Dec 2007- Dec 2009

Recovery by Sector /
  • During the recession period of December 2007-December 2009, 8 out of 10 Illinois sectors experienced employment declines. Education & health and Government were the only 2 sectors that had positive job growth during the recession.
  • Since January 2010, Illinois employment growth resumed. Construction, Manufacturing, Trade, transportation & utilities, Financial activities, Professional & business services, andLeisure & hospitality have recovered 19.28%, 15.97%, 82.60%, 59.20%, 180.17% and374.44%respectively from the jobs lost during the recession.
  • ByMay2017, Professional & business services and Leisure & hospitality had both recovered to their previous employment peak levels.
  • However, the recovery rates for Informationand Other Services arestill negative, namely -28.32% and -98.31%.
  • The 12-month-ahead job recovery forecasts show that the future recovery rates in Illinois will decrease forConstruction,Trade, transportation & utilities, Professional & business services, and Other services.

Construction / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 1.89 / 4,000
RMW / -0.71 / -5,900
Nation / 0.16 / 11,000
Manufacturing / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.09 / 500
RMW / -0.09 / -2,500
Nation / -0.01 / -1,000
Trade, transportation & utilities (TTU) / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.31 / -3,700
RMW / -0.21 / -8,100
Nation / -0.02 / -6,000
Information / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.90 / 900
RMW / -0.74 / -2,100
Nation / -0.07 / -2,000
Financial activities / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.03 / -100
RMW / 0.24 / 2,600
Nation / 0.13 / 11,000
Professional & business services / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.07 / -700
RMW / 0.72 / 18,700
Nation / 0.18 / 38,000
Education & health / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.40 / 3,700
RMW / 0.25 / 8,000
Nation / 0.20 / 47,000
Leisure & hospitality / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.03 / -200
RMW / -0.26 / -5,300
Nation / 0.20 / 31,000
Other Services / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / 0.24 / 600
RMW / 0.66 / 5,500
Nation / 0.21 / 12,000
Government / Apr 2016 - May 2017 / Apr 2016 - May 2017
/ %
Change / Number of Jobs
Illinois / -0.30 / -2,500
RMW / 0.05 / 1,500
Nation / -0.04 / -9,000

ABOUT: The Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) is a unit of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs of the University of Illinois. REAL undertakes impact and forecasting analyses of the Illinois and several Midwestern economies and is also engaged in similar analysis in several other countries including Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Japan. More information can be found at

Illinois Jobs Index / release 6/29/2017 / / page 1