Fifth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction For

Fifth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)

（Final Program）

6-8 April, 2009, Beijing, China

April 6 (Monday), 2009

Registration（08:00-08:30）

Location：1st Floor, CMAConferenceCenter

Opening Ceremony (08:30-09:00)

Chair: LI Weijing

08:30-08:40Welcome address by Dr. Zheng Guoguang, Administrator of CMA

08:40-08:50Address by Dr. Xiao Ziniu, Director-General of BCC

08:50-09:20Group Photo and Tea Break

Invited Lectures (09:20-11:50)

Chair: Arun Kumar

09:20-09:50Dynamical Seasonal Prediction: An Overview of Current Status and Efforts

Arun Kumar, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, USA

09:50-10:20Unusual Late Season Cold Surges during Asian Winter Monsoon 2005: The Role of Atlantic Blocking and the Central Asian Anticyclone

Chih-Pei CHANG, NPS, USA

10:20-10:50A study of the teleconnection in the AsianPacific monsoon region

DING Yihui, BCC/CMA

10:50-11:00Tea Break

11:00-11:30Developments in long-range forecasting at the Met Office Hadley Centre

Richard Graham, Hadley Center, UK

11:30-12:00Seasonal Climate Prediction Activities and Plans for Future Development in Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia

Lunch (12:00-13:30)

Invited Lectures (13:30-15:30)

Chair: Richard Graham

13:30-14:00 Seasonal Climate Prediction: Bias Correction and Forecast Verification

Liqiang SUN, IRI, USA

14:00-14:30Multi-model Ensemble Using WMO GPCs Model Products

Won-Tae Yun, KMA, Korea

14:30-15:00Diagnosis of the atmospheric circulation in winter 2008/2009

Kumi HAYASHI, TCC/JMA, Japan

15:00-15:30Climate Service at APECClimateCenter: Current and Upcoming Products

Kyong-Hee AN, APCC, Korea

15:30-15:50 Tea Break

Session 1：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009 (15:50-17:50)

Topic I: Overview of Recent Climate and Climate Change

Chair: Kumi HAYASHI

15:50-16:05The Building Plan for Monitoring and Assessment System of Extreme Weather-climate Events in Asia

Ren Fumin, BCC/CMA

16:05-16:20Impact of Climate Change on Some Economy Sectors of Kazakhstan

Svetlana Dolgikh, Kazhydromet, Kazakhstan

16:20-16:35Development of Climate Change Scenarios during 2001 to 2100 in DPR Korea

Kim Song Hyon, SHMA, DPRK

16:35-16:50 Climate Change Scenario in India

Thakur Prasad, IMD, India

16:50-17:05Overview of Recent Climate over Korea

NAHyun-Jong, CPD/KMA, Korea

17:05-17:20Climate events and impacts over China in 2008

Gao Rong, BCC/CMA

17:35-17:50Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for the Agriculture and Water Resources Sector in the Philippines

Edna Lee Juanillo, PAGASA-DOST, Philippines

17:50-18:05Current Status of Climate monitoring andLong - range Weather Forecast in Lao PDR

Vanhdy DOUANGMALA, DMH, Laos

Reception by BCC (18:05-20:00, Hubei Hotel)

April7 (Tuesday), 2009

Session 1 (cont.)：Prediction on East Asian Summer Monsoon and summer climate in 2009

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling

Chair: Won-Tae Yun

Invited Lectures (08:30-09:00)

08:30-09:00Weather and Climate Prediction with Icosahedral-Hexagonal Model

Jia Ho OH, Pukyong National University, Korea

Oral Presentations (09:00-11:50)

09:00-09:15East Asian Subtropics Monsoon Index and the Relations with the Mei-yu

Zhou Bing, BCC/CMA

09:15-09:30Summer Season Hindcast Experiments using JMA/MRI-CGCM3

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

09:30-09:45Analysis of Summer Rainfall in Korea and Status of a New Seasonal Forecast System Development

KANG, Hyun-Suk, METRI/KMA, Korea

09:45-10:00Decadal Variations of North Pacific Subsurface Temperature and Its Relation to Summer Precipitation in East China

SUN Zhaobo, NUIST, China

10:00-10:20Tea Break

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling (Cont.)

Chair:Liqiang Sun

10:20-10:35China Summer Precipitaion Forecast Associated with Atmospheric-Ocean Conditions Focused on 2008 and 2009

QIAN Weihong, PKU, China

10:35-10:50A Dynamical Approach in Forecasting Annual Rainfall of Hong Kong

Edwin Ginn, HKO, China

10:50-11:05Recent Development on Multi model Super Ensemble

CHAN Chenghou, MGB, Macao, China

11:05-11:20An improvement on summer regional climate simulation over East China: the importance of data assimilation of soil moisture

Hu Yamin, Guangdong PMB/CMA

11:20-11:35The Arctic Oscillation and the autumn/winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau

Lu Junmei, CAMS/CMA

11:35-11:50Impact of Soil Moisture on the SeasonalPredictability over East Asia

Zhan Yanling, IAP/CAS, China

Lunch (12:00-13:30)

Session 1 Topic II: Climate Prediction System and Modeling (Cont.)(13:30-14:00)

Chair:Brad Murphy

13:30-13:45Validation of satellite rainfall estimation (cpc_rfe_v2.0) over Nepal region in the central Himalaya

Rupak Man RAJBHANDARI, Nepal

13:45-14:00Evaluation of FEWS Model Performance and Operational Real-Time Flood Forecasting (Flood Season 2008)

Hazrat Mir, PMD, Pakistan

Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2009 over East Asia Area

Invited Lectures (14:00-14:30)

14:00-14:30Overview of the 2008-09Asian-Australian monsoons and outlook of the 2009 Asian summer monsoon

Song YANG, NOAA's ClimatePredictionCenter

Oral Presentations (14:30-18:00)

14:30-14:45Recent Evolution and Outlook of ENSO Cycle

Sun Chenghu, BCC/CMA

14:45-15:00Outlook of East Asia Summer Monsoon and Precipitation in Flood Season of 2009 inChina

Ai Wanxiu, BCC/CMA

15:00-15:15Seasonal Outlook of the 2009Summer

LEE, Hyun-Soo, CPD/KMA, Korea

15:15-15:30Seasonal Outlook for summer 2009 over Japan

Hirahara Shoji, TCC/JMA, Japan

15:30-15:50 Tea Break

Session 1 Topic III: Seasonal Climate Prediction of the summer 2009 over East Asia Area (Cont.)

Chair:Zhang Peiqun

15:50-16:05 Latest IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Liqiang Sun, IRI, USA

16:05-16:20 Seasonal Outlook of the 2009Summer in China

Sun Zhaobo, NUIST, China

16:20-16:35Currennt Seasonal Climate Outlooks from Australia

Brad Murphy, BOM, Australia

16:35-16:50Forecasts for the 2009 monsoon season

Richard Graham, Hadley Center, UK

16:50-17:05Outlook of Summer Prediction over East Asia in 2009 by DCMPS_BCC

Yang Mingzhu, BCC/CMA

17:05-17:20Climate Projection over Indonesia Maritime Continent Using 20 km-mesh MRI AGCM

Erwin Eka Syahputra Makmur, IMGA, Indonesia

17:20-17:35Climate Review of 2008 and Outlook for summer 2009 inMongolia

Gerelchuluun Bayasqalan, Mongolia

Dinner (18:00-20:00)

April8 (Wednesday), 2009

Session 2: Program on Asia-Pacific Network of Climate Extreme Events Monitoring and Assessment (Contribute to WCC-3)

（08:30-10:30）

Chair: Feifei Jin

10:30-10:50 Tea Break

Session 3: Discussion and Summary (10:50-11:50)

Chair:DING Yihui

A summary of predictions on Asian summer 2009 climate will be produced together by BCC/CMA, CPC/NOAA, IRI, Hadley Center/UK, BOM, CIIFEN, JMA, KMA and other NMHSs from Asia.

Closing (11:50-12:10)

Chair: XIAO Ziniu

Lunch (12:10-13:30)

13:30-19:00 Technical Excursion to the Beijing Olympic Facilities (including dinner)